Card prices sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP values use live exchange rates. Pull rates from 8,000-pack community aggregate data for Paradox Rift.
The Short Answer
Paradox Rift is a set with negative EV at every price point — including retail. The expected card value per pack is ₱310 — but retail packs cost ₱313, giving only a 0.96× return. At secondary market prices it is worse — packs ₱676, bundles ₱2,730, boxes ₱17,053.
The key story: Groudon IR (#199) at ₱6,399 is the most expensive card in the set — beating all 15 SIRs. This is unusual. The Paradox Rift IR pool is exceptionally strong due to nostalgia demand (Plusle, Minun) and sought-after artwork.
| Product | Retail Price (PHP) | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱313 | ₱676 | ₱310 | 0.96× | −EV at all prices. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱1,879 | ₱2,730 | ₱1,862 | 0.96× | −EV at all prices. |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ₱11,275 | ₱17,053 | ₱11,174 | 0.96× | −EV at all prices. |
Card Prices by Rarity
Paradox Rift (SV04) has 266 cards with five rarity tiers above common. The set is anchored by an exceptional IR pool — Groudon IR (#199) at ₱6,399 is the most expensive card, beating all SIRs. Nostalgia drives prices: Plusle (#193) and Minun (#194) both exceed ₱2,466.
Hyper Rare (✦ HR) — #260–266
7 cards. Gold full-art treatment. Pull rate ~~1 in 82 packs. Garchomp ex (#260) leads at ₱821 — this pool is more balanced than most sets.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 260 | Garchomp ex | $16.87 | ₱1,040 |
| 262 | Roaring Moon ex | $7.93 | ₱489 |
| 261 | Iron Valiant ex | $5.53 | ₱341 |
| 265 | Luxurious Cape | $3.81 | ₱235 |
| 264 | Counter Catcher | $3.39 | ₱209 |
| 266 | Reversal Energy | $3.38 | ₱208 |
| 263 | Beach Court | $3.28 | ₱202 |
Pool average: ₱389. Pool median: ₱235. No single dominant chase card — more evenly distributed than typical SV sets.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #245–259
15 cards. Pull rate ~~1 in 47 packs. Altaria ex SIR (#253) leads at ₱3,514 — but Groudon IR is still more expensive. With 15 SIRs, this pool is more distributed than an 8-SIR set.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 253 | Altaria ex | $60.86 | ₱3,752 |
| 251 | Roaring Moon ex | $42.45 | ₱2,617 |
| 245 | Garchomp ex | $38.37 | ₱2,366 |
| 252 | Gholdengo ex | $36.00 | ₱2,219 |
| 246 | Golisopod ex | $25.76 | ₱1,588 |
| 249 | Iron Valiant ex | $24.99 | ₱1,541 |
| 247 | Tapu Koko ex | $19.99 | ₱1,232 |
| 255 | Parasol Lady | $17.21 | ₱1,061 |
| 248 | Iron Hands ex | $12.21 | ₱753 |
| 259 | Tulip | $9.38 | ₱578 |
| 254 | Mela | $9.00 | ₱555 |
| 256 | Professor Sada's Vitality | $9.00 | ₱555 |
| 258 | Rika | $9.00 | ₱555 |
| 250 | Sandy Shocks ex | $8.75 | ₱539 |
| 257 | Professor Turo's Scenario | $6.95 | ₱428 |
Pool average: ₱1,356. Pool median: ₱1,061. The high median of ₱1,014 shows less filler than typical sets with fewer SIRs.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #183–216
34 cards. ~~1 in 13 packs. The largest and most valuable IR pool in any SV set — Groudon (#199) leads at ₱6,399, followed by Plusle and Minun driven by nostalgia demand.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 199 | Groudon | $110.00 | ₱6,782 | Most expensive card in the set — beats all SIRs |
| 193 | Plusle | $43.58 | ₱2,687 | Nostalgia/fan demand |
| 194 | Minun | $39.99 | ₱2,465 | Nostalgia/fan demand |
| 189 | Mantyke | $34.99 | ₱2,157 | |
| 208 | Steelix | $34.85 | ₱2,149 | |
| 206 | Morpeko | $33.35 | ₱2,056 | |
| 205 | Yveltal | $26.89 | ₱1,658 | |
| 211 | Aipom | $26.58 | ₱1,639 | |
| 196 | Joltik | $24.00 | ₱1,480 | |
| 213 | Swablu | $23.00 | ₱1,418 | |
| 201 | Minior | $20.50 | ₱1,264 | |
| 186 | Magby | $18.42 | ₱1,136 | |
| 207 | Brute Bonnet | $15.75 | ₱971 | |
| 212 | Loudred | $15.44 | ₱952 | |
| 204 | Garbodor | $15.00 | ₱925 | |
| 198 | Gimmighoul | $14.00 | ₱863 | |
| 214 | Porygon-Z | $12.54 | ₱773 | |
| 191 | Wimpod | $10.83 | ₱668 | |
| 216 | Iron Jugulis | $10.43 | ₱643 | |
| 188 | Snorunt | $9.60 | ₱592 | |
| 210 | Aegislash | $9.49 | ₱585 | |
| 192 | Veluza | $9.15 | ₱564 | |
| 190 | Vanillish | $9.07 | ₱559 | |
| 195 | Blitzle | $8.85 | ₱546 | |
| 197 | Espathra | $7.98 | ₱492 | |
| 200 | Mienshao | $7.90 | ₱487 | |
| 185 | Toedscruel | $7.85 | ₱484 | |
| 187 | Iron Moth | $7.67 | ₱473 | |
| 215 | Cyclizar | $6.88 | ₱424 | |
| 203 | Slither Wing | $6.00 | ₱370 | |
| 202 | Garganacl | $5.56 | ₱343 | |
| 184 | Dottler | $5.25 | ₱324 | |
| 209 | Ferrothorn | $5.20 | ₱321 | |
| 183 | Crustle | $5.00 | ₱308 |
Pool average: ₱1,163. Pool median: ₱720. With 34 IRs, each pull is a lottery — the odds of getting Groudon specifically are 1 in 34 IR pulls.
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #217–244
28 cards. ~~1 in 15 packs. Maushold ex (#233) at ₱732 is the standout; most URs are worth ₱123–₱247.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 233 | Maushold ex | $16.23 | ₱1,001 |
| 219 | Garchomp ex | $7.17 | ₱442 |
| 238 | Parasol Lady | $5.00 | ₱308 |
| 231 | Gholdengo ex | $4.35 | ₱268 |
| 244 | Tulip | $4.00 | ₱247 |
| 227 | Toxtricity ex | $3.99 | ₱246 |
| 229 | Roaring Moon ex | $3.97 | ₱245 |
| 232 | Altaria ex | $3.51 | ₱216 |
| 226 | Hoopa ex | $3.42 | ₱211 |
| 240 | Professor Turo's Scenario | $3.20 | ₱197 |
| 236 | Mela | $3.00 | ₱185 |
| 220 | Tsareena ex | $2.99 | ₱184 |
| 225 | Iron Valiant ex | $2.94 | ₱181 |
| 218 | Armarouge ex | $2.68 | ₱165 |
| 223 | Iron Hands ex | $2.57 | ₱158 |
| 221 | Golisopod ex | $2.57 | ₱158 |
| 243 | Shauntal | $2.50 | ₱154 |
| 222 | Tapu Koko ex | $2.49 | ₱154 |
| 228 | Sandy Shocks ex | $2.46 | ₱152 |
| 241 | Rika | $2.41 | ₱149 |
| 239 | Professor Sada's Vitality | $2.32 | ₱143 |
| 230 | Aegislash ex | $2.30 | ₱142 |
| 217 | Froslass ex | $2.23 | ₱137 |
| 235 | Larry | $2.14 | ₱132 |
| 224 | Cofagrigus ex | $2.02 | ₱125 |
| 234 | Bombirdier ex | $1.99 | ₱123 |
| 237 | Norman | $1.60 | ₱99 |
| 242 | Roark | $1.59 | ₱98 |
Pool average: ₱215. Most UR pulls return low value.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #001–182
Various ex cards. ~~1 in 6 packs. Mewtwo ex (#058) leads at ₱164; most others are below ₱123.
Pool average: ₱94. Lowest-value pulls above bulk.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Standout feature: 6 of the top 10 cards are Illustration Rares — a far stronger IR pool than typical SV-era sets. Groudon IR at #1 above all SIRs is rare and makes Paradox Rift unique among SV sets.
Expected Value Per Pack
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 65.6% | $0.23 | $0.15 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 16.7% | $1.53 | $0.25 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 7.7% | $18.87 | $1.45 |
| Ultra Rare (#217–244) | 6.7% | $3.49 | $0.23 |
| SIR (#245–259) | 2.1% | $21.99 | $0.47 |
| Hyper Rare (#260–266) | 1.2% | $6.31 | $0.08 |
IRs contribute the largest EV share ($1.45 of the $5.03 total) despite a 7.7% pull rate, because the $18.87 pool average is driven by Groudon.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings. Simulation prices are in USD; your PHP value depends on the current exchange rate.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. Nearly all outcomes cluster in the −$200 to −$50 range. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 16.9% | 83.1% | −$2 | −$2 | +$12 | 0.99× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 31% | 69% | −$8 | −$15 | +$34 | 0.99× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 40.2% | 59.8% | −$11 | −$62 | +$95 | 0.99× |
| Pack — market (~$10.97) | $10.97 | 7.9% | 92.1% | −$8 | −$8 | +$6 | 0.46× |
| Bundle — market (~$44.29) | $44.29 | 15.8% | 84.2% | −$22 | −$29 | +$20 | 0.68× |
| Box — market (~$276.61) | $276.61 | 5.1% | 94.9% | −$105 | −$156 | +$1 | 0.66× |
The Break-Even Price
The market box price (~₱17,053) is 50% above the break-even point (₱11,174). Even the retail box price (₱11,275) is 4% above break-even — there is no price point that delivers positive EV for Paradox Rift.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current price. For the Groudon IR at ~₱6,399, the expected cost to pull it through pack opening is ~442 packs (~₱291,568 at market). Buying the single is dramatically cheaper.
If you want to open packs
Paradox Rift has no price point with positive EV. Even at retail (~₱313/pack), the return is only 0.96×. If opening for the experience, understand this is entertainment cost, not investment. Paradox Rift is a 2023 set — finding retail stock in PH may require checking Datablitz or local stores.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Paradox Rift sealed has risen from 2023 retail prices due to strong IR demand. The main risk: with 34 IRs in the pool, any shift in nostalgia demand (Plusle, Minun, Groudon) could significantly impact overall set value. Break-even box ~₱11,174 vs market price ₱17,053 — you are paying a 50% premium above fundamental card value.
Buy Paradox Rift on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Paradox Rift in the Philippines?
No — negative EV at every price point including retail (0.96×). EV per pack is ₱310 but retail packs cost ₱313. At secondary market prices, returns are 0.45×–0.68×. Buy singles for specific cards.
What is the most expensive Paradox Rift card?
Groudon IR (#199) at approximately USD $103.79 (₱6,399) — the most expensive card in the set, beating all SIRs. Altaria ex SIR (#253) at ₱3,514 and Plusle IR (#193) at ₱2,865 are second and third.
How many SIRs are in Paradox Rift?
15 Special Illustration Rares (#245–259) and 7 Hyper Rares (#260–266). With 15 SIRs, the pool is more distributed than 8-SIR sets — the high SIR pool median of ₱1,014 shows less filler compared to typical sets.
Why is Groudon IR more expensive than the SIRs?
Strong nostalgia demand for Groudon as one of the most iconic legendaries in Pokemon history, combined with beautiful IR artwork. This is unusual — normally SIRs dominate a set's value list. Paradox Rift is a rare exception where the IR pool outvalues the SIR pool.
Disclaimer: All card prices from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026. PHP values use live exchange rates. Pull rates are community estimates from 8,000-pack aggregate opening data. Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulations. This is not financial advice.