Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP values use a live exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Stellar Crown's market box price (~₱19,982) sits far above break-even (~₱12,584), making box opening at market one of the worst value propositions in recent SV sets. At retail pricing, all formats are slightly positive EV. The set's EV is anchored by two Illustration Rares — Squirtle (#148, ~₱6,992) and Bulbasaur (#143, ~₱6,489).
| Product | Retail Price (PHP) | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱313 | ₱569 | ₱350 | 1.08× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱1,879 | ₱3,343 | ₱2,097 | 1.08× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ₱11,275 | ₱19,982 | ₱12,584 | 1.08× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.60×). |
Card Prices by Rarity
Hyper Rare (◇★) — #173–175
3 cards. Estimated pull rate approximately ~1 in 137 packs. Pool average: ₱567 — none command a premium price.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | Terapagos ex | $11.14 | ₱687 |
| 174 | Area Zero Underdepths | $11.00 | ₱678 |
| 175 | Bravery Charm | $5.46 | ₱337 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #167–172
6 cards. Pull rate approximately ~1 in 90 packs. Price range: ₱873 – ₱4,544.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | Dachsbun ex | $72.00 | ₱4,439 |
| 170 | Terapagos ex | $55.15 | ₱3,400 |
| 167 | Hydrapple ex | $29.96 | ₱1,847 |
| 168 | Galvantula ex | $20.00 | ₱1,233 |
| 172 | Lacey | $18.02 | ₱1,111 |
| 171 | Briar | $12.97 | ₱800 |
Pool average: ₱2,138. Pool median: ₱1,540.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #143–155
13 cards. Expected roughly once every 13 packs (7.7%). Squirtle and Bulbasaur dominate this pool.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | Squirtle | $121.74 | ₱7,505 | Chase IR — starter nostalgia |
| 143 | Bulbasaur | $111.67 | ₱6,884 | Chase IR — starter nostalgia |
| 152 | Milcery | $16.95 | ₱1,045 | |
| 154 | Gulpin | $11.84 | ₱730 | |
| 151 | Zeraora | $11.54 | ₱711 | |
| 147 | Raboot | $8.36 | ₱515 | |
| 153 | Meditite | $7.20 | ₱444 | |
| 150 | Joltik | $7.15 | ₱441 | |
| 145 | Lileep | $7.00 | ₱432 | |
| 144 | Ledian | $5.67 | ₱350 | |
| 155 | Archaludon | $4.28 | ₱264 | |
| 146 | Turtonator | $4.12 | ₱254 | |
| 149 | Crabominable | $3.35 | ₱207 |
Pool average: ₱1,522. Pool median: ₱444. If you pull an IR that isn't Squirtle or Bulbasaur, expect around ₱370–₱801.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #156–166
11 cards. Pull rate approximately ~1 in 15 packs. Pool average: ₱244 — weak UR tier in Stellar Crown.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | Crispin | $11.00 | ₱678 |
| 158 | Lapras ex | $7.29 | ₱449 |
| 160 | Dachsbun ex | $4.49 | ₱277 |
| 157 | Cinderace ex | $4.00 | ₱247 |
| 166 | Lacey | $3.49 | ₱215 |
| 163 | Briar | $2.94 | ₱181 |
| 156 | Hydrapple ex | $2.51 | ₱155 |
| 159 | Galvantula ex | $2.49 | ₱154 |
| 161 | Medicham ex | $2.09 | ₱129 |
| 162 | Orthworm ex | $1.85 | ₱114 |
| 165 | Kofu | $1.34 | ₱83 |
ACE SPEC Rare (★) — #142
1 card. Sparkling Crystal at ₱47 — contributes virtually nothing to EV ($0.04 per pack).
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | Sparkling Crystal | $0.76 | ₱47 |
Double Rares (★★ ex) — 14 ex cards
Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Pool average: ₱92.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Blastoise ex | $2.81 | ₱173 |
| 32 | Lapras ex | $2.49 | ₱154 |
| 1 | Venusaur ex | $2.08 | ₱128 |
| 67 | Dachsbun ex | $2.07 | ₱128 |
| 51 | Galvantula ex | $1.50 | ₱92 |
| 14 | Hydrapple ex | $1.45 | ₱89 |
| 41 | Greninja ex | $1.33 | ₱82 |
| 82 | Lucario ex | $1.25 | ₱77 |
| 28 | Cinderace ex | $1.14 | ₱70 |
| 128 | Terapagos ex | $1.10 | ₱68 |
| 105 | Melmetal ex | $1.00 | ₱62 |
| 80 | Medicham ex | $0.99 | ₱61 |
| 110 | Orthworm ex | $0.84 | ₱52 |
| 89 | Garganacl ex | $0.83 | ₱51 |
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Stellar Crown has an inverted value structure: the top 2 cards are Illustration Rares, not SIRs or Hyper Rares. Squirtle and Bulbasaur dominate at ₱6,473–₱6,966 — pricing above every SIR and Hyper Rare in the set. This is driven by starter Pokémon collector demand.
Expected Value Per Pack
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 58.8% | $0.55 | $0.32 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.49 | $0.30 |
| ACE SPEC (★ Sparkling Crystal) | 5.0% | $0.76 | $0.04 |
| Ultra Rare (#156–166) | 6.7% | $3.95 | $0.26 |
| Illustration Rare (#143–155) | 7.7% | $24.68 | $1.90 |
| SIR (#167–172) | 1.1% | $34.68 | $0.38 |
| Hyper Rare (#173–175) | 0.73% | $9.20 | $0.07 |
Illustration Rares contribute $1.74 — the single largest hit-slot component (32% of EV). Squirtle and Bulbasaur alone account for most of this. SIR and Hyper Rare together contribute only $0.43 (8% of EV).
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings. Simulation prices are in USD; your PHP values depend on the current exchange rate.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 14.6% | 85.4% | −$2 | −$2 | +$8 | 1.12× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 24.3% | 75.7% | −$8 | −$13 | +$103 | 1.12× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 44.4% | 55.6% | −$15 | −$58 | +$187 | 1.11× |
| Pack — market (~$9.23) | $9.23 | 8.1% | 91.9% | −$6 | −$6 | +$4 | 0.61× |
| Bundle — market (~$54.22) | $54.22 | 9.4% | 90.6% | −$32 | −$36 | +$79 | 0.63× |
| Box — market (~$324.12) | $324.12 | 8.6% | 91.4% | −$156 | −$199 | +$46 | 0.63× |
The Break-Even Price
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. For Squirtle IR at ₱6,992 or Bulbasaur IR at ₱6,489, opening packs to find them is not realistic — the expected cost is roughly 84 packs × ₱569 = ₱47,798 per card. Use tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Philippine price.
If you want to open packs
Retail pricing is the only format that makes sense for opening. At ₱313/pack, you're slightly below break-even with a 1.08× expected return. Find packs at Datablitz / Game One / Shopee PH near retail price. Avoid buying at market prices — boxes at ₱19,982 have a 92.4% loss rate and 0.60× return.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Stellar Crown packs in the Philippines?
At retail (~₱313/pack), marginally — EV is ~₱350 per pack (1.08×). But only 14.6% of individual packs profit. At market prices (₱569/pack), opening is 0.59× EV — significantly negative. For most people, buying singles is better value.
What is the most expensive Stellar Crown card in PHP?
Squirtle IR (#148) at approximately ₱6,992, followed by Bulbasaur IR (#143) at ₱6,489. Both are the only cards in the set above ₱6,165, and both are Illustration Rares — not SIRs or Hyper Rares.
What are the pull rates for Stellar Crown?
Based on community mass-opening data (8,000 packs): Hyper Rare ~0.73% (1 in ~137 packs), SIR ~1.11% (1 in ~90 packs), Illustration Rare ~7.69% (1 in ~13 packs), Ultra Rare ~6.67% (1 in ~15 packs), ACE SPEC ~5% (1 in ~20 packs), Double Rare ~20% (1 in ~5 packs).
Disclaimer: All card prices from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026. PHP values use a live exchange rate. Pull rates are community estimates from Stellar Crown aggregate opening data (8,000 packs). Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulations, seed 42. This is not financial advice.