Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Stellar Crown's box market price (~USD $310) sits far above the break-even point (~USD $192.36), making box opening at market one of the worst value propositions in recent SV sets. At Singapore retail pricing, all formats are slightly positive EV. The set's EV is anchored by two Illustration Rares — Squirtle (#148, ~$109) and Bulbasaur (#143, ~$91) — which are exciting to pull but genuinely rare.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$11.5 | $5.34 | 1.05× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$67 | $32.06 | 1.06× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$32.06 USD (SGD ~$41.04) | $32.06 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$310 | $192.36 | 1.05× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.62×). |
| ~Break-even box | ~$192.36 USD (SGD ~$246) | $192.36 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
Why is the market box so far above break-even? Stellar Crown maintained elevated sealed demand due to the Squirtle and Bulbasaur IRs — starter nostalgia drives strong collector demand, keeping box prices high relative to the actual card EV. Opening a box at $310 when the expected card return is $192.36 means you are effectively paying a 61% premium for the experience of opening.
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Interactive EV Calculator
Before you buy, stress-test the maths yourself: pick a sealed product, choose the price you'd actually pay, set a “sift floor” so worthless bulk counts as $0, and edit any pull-rate assumption. Every change re-runs a live Monte Carlo simulation in your browser and updates the expected value, break-even price, ROI and the profit/loss distribution.
Odds aren't officially published — edit any assumption and the whole model re-runs. Values are auto-normalised.
| Tier | Exp. copies | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 2.79 | $63.09 |
| Special Illustration Rare (★★ SIR) | 0.40 | $12.04 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 21.17 | $11.64 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 7.17 | $9.26 |
| Ultra Rare (★★) | 2.42 | $7.76 |
| Hyper Rare (◇★) | 0.26 | $2.30 |
| ACE SPEC Rare (★) | 1.80 | $0.83 |
| Bulk + reverse holo | — | $86.40 |
Live Monte Carlo simulation in your browser. Card prices: PriceCharting (USD), updated 2026-09-02. Pull rates are community-estimated from published opening data and fully editable above — treat every figure as a planning estimate, not a guarantee. SGD shown at ~S$1.28/USD.
Card Prices by Rarity
Stellar Crown (SV07) has 175 cards across 9 rarity tiers. The set is unusual in that its highest-value cards are Illustration Rares rather than SIRs — Squirtle and Bulbasaur outprice every SIR in the set.
Hyper Rare (◇★) — #173–175
3 cards. The rarest printing in the set — gold-treatment cards including Terapagos ex. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 137 packs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 173 | Terapagos ex | $11.77 | ~$15.07 |
| 174 | Area Zero Underdepths | $10.64 | ~$13.62 |
| 175 | Bravery Charm | $4.07 | ~$5.21 |
Pool average: $8.83 USD. Notable for a Hyper Rare pool — none of these cards commands a premium price. The entire Hyper Rare tier contributes only $0.06 to EV per pack, less than most other sets' equivalent tier.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #167–172
6 cards. The main alternate-art chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 90 packs. Price range: $12–$65.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | Dachsbun ex | $65.00 | ~$83.20 |
| 170 | Terapagos ex | $37.50 | ~$48.00 |
| 167 | Hydrapple ex | $32.98 | ~$42.21 |
| 168 | Galvantula ex | $18.69 | ~$23.92 |
| 172 | Lacey | $16.99 | ~$21.75 |
| 171 | Briar | $11.51 | ~$14.73 |
Pool average: $30.44 USD. Pool median: $25.84 USD. The pool is led by Dachsbun ex and Terapagos ex. Pulling any SIR is a decent outcome — even the lowest at $12 clears a retail pack cost. Unlike some sets, the SIR pool here does not have an extreme outlier above $100.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #143–155
13 cards. Expected roughly once every 13 packs (7.7%). This is the set's value engine — Squirtle and Bulbasaur dominate the pool.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | Squirtle | $109.25 | Chase IR — starter nostalgia |
| 143 | Bulbasaur | $91.21 | Chase IR — starter nostalgia |
| 152 | Milcery | $17.09 | |
| 154 | Gulpin | $12.58 | |
| 151 | Zeraora | $11.05 | |
| 145 | Lileep | $8.90 | |
| 147 | Raboot | $8.00 | |
| 150 | Joltik | $7.74 | |
| 153 | Meditite | $7.66 | |
| 144 | Ledian | $6.00 | |
| 146 | Turtonator | $4.67 | |
| 155 | Archaludon | $4.08 | |
| 149 | Crabominable | $2.95 |
Pool average: $22.4 USD. Pool median: $8 USD. The mean is dramatically inflated by Squirtle and Bulbasaur. If you pull an IR and it's not one of those two, the expected value is around $7. Pulling a Squirtle or Bulbasaur IR is a genuinely rare event — roughly a 1 in 84 pack chance for each.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #156–166
11 cards. Full-art ex cards and trainer full arts. Expected roughly once every 15 packs (6.7%). Most are worth $1.19–$6.10, with Crispin (#164) as the standout at $6.54.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 158 | Lapras ex | $6.54 |
| 164 | Crispin | $6.10 |
| 160 | Dachsbun ex | $4.85 |
| 157 | Cinderace ex | $3.37 |
| 156 | Hydrapple ex | $3.22 |
| 166 | Lacey | $3.12 |
| 159 | Galvantula ex | $2.17 |
| 163 | Briar | $2.09 |
| 161 | Medicham ex | $1.42 |
| 162 | Orthworm ex | $1.20 |
| 165 | Kofu | $1.19 |
Pool average: $3.21 USD. The UR tier is weak in Stellar Crown — Crispin at $6.54 is the only notable pull. Most URs barely cover the cost of a single pack at retail. This is below average for the SV era.
ACE SPEC Rare (★) — #142
1 card. ACE SPEC cards have a dedicated pull slot estimated at approximately 1 in 20 packs (5%).
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | Sparkling Crystal | $0.46 | ~$0.59 |
At $0.46, Sparkling Crystal contributes virtually nothing to EV ($0.02 per pack). Its ACE SPEC designation means it occupies a dedicated slot — it does not displace other hit-slot cards, but the slot itself is low-value for this set.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #001–128
14 ex cards in the base set. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Most are worth $0.60–$1.89, with Blastoise ex (#30) as the standout.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Blastoise ex | $2.86 |
| 82 | Lucario ex | $1.89 |
| 1 | Venusaur ex | $1.64 |
| 32 | Lapras ex | $1.60 |
| 67 | Dachsbun ex | $1.42 |
| 41 | Greninja ex | $1.27 |
| 14 | Hydrapple ex | $1.27 |
| 128 | Terapagos ex | $1.11 |
| 51 | Galvantula ex | $1.01 |
| 105 | Melmetal ex | $0.99 |
| 89 | Garganacl ex | $0.83 |
| 28 | Cinderace ex | $0.81 |
| 80 | Medicham ex | $0.78 |
| 110 | Orthworm ex | $0.60 |
Pool average: $1.29 USD. These are the bread-and-butter hits — consistent but low in individual value. The Double Rare slot contributes $0.26 EV per pack.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Stellar Crown has an inverted value structure: the top 2 cards are Illustration Rares, not SIRs or Hyper Rares. Squirtle and Bulbasaur dominate at $91–$109 — pricing above every SIR and Hyper Rare in the set. This is driven by starter Pokémon demand. Terapagos ex appears three times (DR, SIR, HR) but none of the three versions are the set's priciest pull.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from Stellar Crown community opening data (8,000 packs), here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 58.8% | $0.55 | $0.32 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.29 | $0.26 |
| ACE SPEC (★ Sparkling Crystal) | 5.0% | $0.46 | $0.02 |
| Ultra Rare (#156–166) | 6.7% | $3.21 | $0.21 |
| Illustration Rare (#143–155) | 7.7% | $22.40 | $1.72 |
| SIR (#167–172) | 1.1% | $30.44 | $0.34 |
| Hyper Rare (#173–175) | 0.73% | $8.83 | $0.06 |
Key observations from this table:
- Illustration Rares contribute $1.72 — the single largest hit-slot component (~32% of EV). This is unusual; most sets have SIRs or Hyper Rares as the dominant EV driver. Squirtle and Bulbasaur alone account for most of this contribution.
- SIR and Hyper Rare together contribute only $0.40 (~7% of EV). These premium rarities are almost an afterthought in Stellar Crown's EV math — the expensive SIRs in other sets are replaced here by expensive IRs.
- The Hyper Rare pool is unusually weak at $8.83 average. In most sets, Hyper Rares command $30–$300+. Stellar Crown's three Hyper Rares are all modest in price.
- ACE SPEC contributes almost nothing ($0.02). Sparkling Crystal at $0.46 is one of the cheaper ACE SPEC cards across all SV sets.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), September 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 14.5% | 85.5% | −$2 | −$2 | +$6 | 1.05× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 22.8% | 77.2% | −$8 | −$13 | +$82 | 1.06× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 42% | 58% | −$20 | −$61 | +$151 | 1.05× |
| Pack — market (~$11.50) | $11.5 | 4.5% | 95.5% | −$9 | −$9 | +$0 | 0.46× |
| Bundle — market (~$67.00) | $67 | 8.2% | 91.8% | −$45 | −$49 | +$45 | 0.48× |
| Box — market (~$310.00) | $310 | 7.4% | 92.6% | −$147 | −$188 | +$24 | 0.62× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The market box at 7.4% win rate is the worst-odds format in this set — even the retail box (42%) is barely a coin flip. You need to hit a Squirtle, Bulbasaur, or Dachsbun ex SIR to break even from a market box.
- The P95 box outcome at market is only +$24 — meaning even in the best 5% of openings, most openers barely profit. This reflects how far the box price exceeds EV.
- The bundle P95 at +$82 (retail) is driven by hitting Squirtle or Bulbasaur IR — a lucky 6-pack that includes either IR delivers a solid return. This bimodal outcome is visible in the histogram: the +$50–$70 cluster represents an IR hit in a 6-pack.
- Market individual packs have a 95.5% loss rate and only 0.46× return — among the worst single-pack value in the sets analysed so far.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $5.34 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), comfortably below the break-even pack price of $5.34. Retail boxes (~SGD $234 / USD ~$182.88) are also below break-even ($192.36). At Singapore retail, all formats are slightly positive expected value. Market pricing in Singapore (through Carousell and SNKRDUNK) typically tracks global market prices and is well above break-even.
Sensitivity to IR price changes
Because Illustration Rares drive ~32% of the EV in Stellar Crown, IR price movement has a larger impact here than in most sets:
| IR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (September 2026) | $5.34 | ~$32.06 | ~$192.36 |
| IRs −25% | ~$4.91 | ~$29.48 | ~$176.86 |
| IRs −50% | ~$4.48 | ~$26.89 | ~$161.36 |
| IRs −75% | ~$4.05 | ~$24.31 | ~$145.85 |
A 25% decline in IR prices (particularly Squirtle and Bulbasaur) would drop the break-even box price to ~$177 — just below current retail pricing (~$182.88), erasing the thin retail margin entirely. This sensitivity makes Stellar Crown more exposed to IR price movement than sets where SIRs drive value. Starter Pokémon IRs tend to be more stable than other IRs due to collector demand, but this risk is worth tracking.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For Squirtle IR at $109 or Bulbasaur IR at $91, opening packs to find them is not realistic — the expected cost is roughly 84 packs × $11.5 market price ≈ $970 to land either one. Singles are always cheaper for targeted pulls.
If you want to open packs
Retail pricing is the only format that makes sense for opening. At SGD $6.50/pack (USD ~$5.08), you're below break-even, giving the set a 1.05× expected return. The retail box at ~$182.88 USD is below the break-even of $192.36 and gives 42% win odds — the best format if you're opening at retail.
Avoid buying at market prices. Booster boxes at $310 have a 92.6% loss rate and 0.62× return — you are expected to lose around $118 per box opened at market. Bundles and single packs at market are similarly poor. If you cannot find retail pricing, buying singles is better than opening.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Stellar Crown sealed at retail can make sense — the Squirtle and Bulbasaur IRs sustain collector demand. However, the market box price (~$310) already reflects a significant premium over EV ($192.36). Boxes are unlikely to appreciate further unless IR prices climb substantially. Compare current prices on Carousell or SNKRDUNK before committing to sealed investment.
If you already have cards to sell
Squirtle IR at $109 and Bulbasaur IR at $91 are the most time-sensitive. Starter Pokémon IRs hold value well compared to other IRs, but prices in new sets typically soften 15–30% within 3–6 months. Dachsbun ex SIR at $65 is the best SIR to sell promptly — fairy-adjacent Pokémon aesthetics drive strong initial demand that often fades. The Hyper Rare tier ($5–$11) is unlikely to move significantly either way.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Stellar Crown packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), marginally — EV is ~SGD $6.84 per pack (1.05× return). At market prices ($11.5/pack, $310/box), opening is significantly negative EV. The market box costs 61% more than break-even. The median outcome is a loss in all formats because the high-value pulls (Squirtle IR, Bulbasaur IR) are genuinely rare.
What is the most expensive Stellar Crown card?
Squirtle (#148, Illustration Rare) at approximately USD $109.25 (~SGD $140). Bulbasaur (#143, Illustration Rare) is a close second at USD $91.21 (~SGD $117). These two starter Illustration Rares are the set's clear top pulls — an unusual structure where the premium IRs outprice the SIRs and Hyper Rares.
How many SIRs are in Stellar Crown?
6 Special Illustration Rares (#167–172) and 3 Hyper Rares (#173–175), for 9 premium rarity cards above the IR tier. The SIR pool (Dachsbun ex, Terapagos ex, Hydrapple ex, Galvantula ex, Lacey, Briar) ranges from $12 to $65 — modest compared to sets like Ascended Heroes or Chaos Rising.
What is the cheapest SIR in Stellar Crown?
Briar (#171) at USD $11.51 (~SGD $14.73) is the current lowest-value SIR. This is relatively affordable for a Special Illustration Rare — pulling any SIR in Stellar Crown is a decent-to-good outcome.
Are the IR cards in Stellar Crown worth pulling?
Two of them are extremely valuable (Squirtle at $109, Bulbasaur at $91). The remaining 11 IRs average about $7–$17 — decent but not exceptional. The IR pool average of $22.4 is entirely driven by those two starters. If you pull an IR that isn't Squirtle or Bulbasaur, you're likely getting $3–$17.
How does Stellar Crown compare to Chaos Rising for pack opening?
Stellar Crown's EV per pack ($5.34) is competitive with Chaos Rising, but its market box price is much higher ($310), so the box premium over break-even is far steeper here. Chaos Rising's box at market sits closer to break-even; Stellar Crown's is deeply negative (0.62×). For opening at market pricing, Chaos Rising is the better value. At retail, both are slightly positive EV.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of September 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Pull rates are community estimates from Stellar Crown aggregate opening data (8,000 packs); The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Standard Rare and Double Rare rates are estimated based on community data from comparable SV-era sets. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.