Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP values use a live exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Twilight Masquerade's market box price (~₱21,815) sits far above break-even (~₱12,567), making box opening at market deeply negative EV (0.58×). At retail pricing, all formats are positive EV (1.10× return). The set's chase cards are Greninja ex SIR (#214, ~₱19,537), Eevee IR (#188, ~₱5,250), and Chansey IR (#187, ~₱3,237).
| Product | Retail Price (PHP) | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱319 | ₱527 | ₱349 | 1.10× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱1,916 | ₱3,018 | ₱2,094 | 1.10× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ₱11,498 | ₱21,815 | ₱12,567 | 1.10× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.58×). |
Card Prices by Rarity
Hyper Rare (HR) — #221–226
6 cards. Estimated pull rate approximately ~1 in 146 packs. Pool average: ₱436.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 223 | Buddy-Buddy Poffin | $11.72 | ₱737 |
| 222 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | $8.60 | ₱541 |
| 221 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $8.23 | ₱517 |
| 224 | Enhanced Hammer | $5.72 | ₱360 |
| 226 | Luminous Energy | $5.01 | ₱315 |
| 225 | Rescue Board | $2.38 | ₱150 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #210–220
11 cards. Pull rate approximately ~1 in 86 packs. Greninja ex SIR (#214) at ₱19,537 is the set's top chase card.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 214 | Greninja ex | $310.76 | ₱19,537 |
| 220 | Perrin | $161.51 | ₱10,154 |
| 217 | Carmine | $53.55 | ₱3,367 |
| 216 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | $47.51 | ₱2,987 |
| 219 | Lana's Aid | $35.11 | ₱2,207 |
| 210 | Sinistcha ex | $33.65 | ₱2,116 |
| 218 | Kieran | $27.94 | ₱1,757 |
| 211 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $19.99 | ₱1,257 |
| 213 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $15.60 | ₱981 |
| 215 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $14.44 | ₱908 |
| 212 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $12.57 | ₱790 |
Pool average: ₱4,187. Pool median: ₱2,116. If you pull a SIR, the median result is a card worth ~₱2,116.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #168–188
21 cards. Expected roughly once every 13 packs (7.7%). Eevee and Chansey dominate this pool.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | Eevee | $83.50 | ₱5,250 | Chase IR — collector staple |
| 187 | Chansey | $51.48 | ₱3,237 | Chase IR — retro fan favourite |
| 181 | Hisuian Growlithe | $25.99 | ₱1,634 | |
| 186 | Tatsugiri | $20.50 | ₱1,289 | |
| 168 | Pinsir | $14.72 | ₱925 | |
| 173 | Infernape | $13.27 | ₱834 | |
| 170 | Dipplin | $12.19 | ₱766 | |
| 185 | Applin | $11.83 | ₱744 | |
| 175 | Phione | $11.75 | ₱739 | |
| 174 | Froslass | $8.00 | ₱503 | |
| 169 | Sunflora | $8.00 | ₱503 | |
| 180 | Enamorus | $6.96 | ₱438 | |
| 183 | Timburr | $6.65 | ₱418 | |
| 172 | Torkoal | $6.13 | ₱385 | |
| 171 | Poltchageist | $5.92 | ₱372 | |
| 184 | Lairon | $5.74 | ₱361 | |
| 179 | Chimecho | $5.67 | ₱356 | |
| 178 | Wattrel | $5.29 | ₱333 | |
| 177 | Heliolisk | $5.06 | ₱318 | |
| 182 | Probopass | $4.74 | ₱298 | |
| 176 | Cramorant | $4.11 | ₱258 |
Pool average: ₱951. Pool median: ₱503. If you pull an IR that isn't Eevee or Chansey, expect around ₱314–₱1,697.
ACE SPEC Rares — #162–167
5 cards. Expected approximately ~1 in 20 packs. Unfair Stamp is the most competitively relevant at ₱755.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | Unfair Stamp | $8.35 | ₱525 | Competitively relevant |
| 163 | Secret Box | $6.00 | ₱377 | Niche competitive use |
| 167 | Legacy Energy | $3.24 | ₱204 | |
| 162 | Scoop Up Cyclone | $0.92 | ₱58 | |
| 164 | Survival Brace | $0.52 | ₱33 |
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #189–209
21 cards. Pull rate approximately ~1 in 15 packs. Pool average: ₱259. Greninja ex (#198) and Dragapult ex (#200) lead the pool.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 198 | Greninja ex | $14.92 | ₱938 |
| 200 | Dragapult ex | $11.38 | ₱715 |
| 207 | Lana's Aid | $6.12 | ₱385 |
| 209 | Perrin | $5.50 | ₱346 |
| 190 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $4.83 | ₱304 |
| 204 | Carmine | $4.74 | ₱298 |
| 201 | Blissey ex | $4.48 | ₱282 |
| 199 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $3.99 | ₱251 |
| 194 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $3.72 | ₱234 |
| 206 | Kieran | $3.72 | ₱234 |
| 195 | Luxray ex | $2.99 | ₱188 |
| 197 | Scream Tail ex | $2.97 | ₱187 |
| 196 | Iron Thorns ex | $2.81 | ₱177 |
| 192 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $2.67 | ₱168 |
| 202 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | $2.30 | ₱145 |
| 189 | Sinistcha ex | $1.99 | ₱125 |
| 193 | Palafin ex | $1.95 | ₱123 |
| 191 | Magcargo ex | $1.58 | ₱99 |
| 205 | Hassel | $1.54 | ₱97 |
| 208 | Lucian | $1.22 | ₱77 |
| 203 | Caretaker | $1.00 | ₱63 |
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #023–141
14 ex cards. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Pool average: ₱87.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 025 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $3.12 | ₱196 |
| 106 | Greninja ex | $2.79 | ₱175 |
| 130 | Dragapult ex | $1.85 | ₱116 |
| 068 | Luxray ex | $1.58 | ₱99 |
| 141 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | $1.46 | ₱92 |
| 112 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.10 | ₱69 |
| 064 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.03 | ₱65 |
| 040 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.00 | ₱63 |
| 094 | Scream Tail ex | $0.99 | ₱62 |
| 134 | Blissey ex | $0.99 | ₱62 |
| 077 | Iron Thorns ex | $0.89 | ₱56 |
| 061 | Palafin ex | $0.88 | ₱55 |
| 023 | Sinistcha ex | $0.86 | ₱54 |
| 029 | Magcargo ex | $0.78 | ₱49 |
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Greninja ex SIR at ₱19,537 is by far the most valuable pull. Eevee IR (#188) and Chansey IR (#187) are the standout IRs — collector favourites that significantly boost IR pool average. These two cards alone account for most of the IR EV contribution.
Expected Value Per Pack
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 58.8% | $0.73 | $0.43 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.38 | $0.28 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5.0% | $3.81 | $0.19 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 7.69% | $15.12 | $1.16 |
| Ultra Rare (★★ #189–209) | 6.67% | $4.12 | $0.27 |
| SIR (★★ #210–220) | 1.16% | $66.60 | $0.77 |
| Hyper Rare (#221–226) | 0.68% | $6.94 | $0.05 |
Illustration Rares contribute $1.16 per pack — Eevee and Chansey are responsible for most of this. SIR contributes $0.77 driven by Greninja ex SIR at $311. Combined, these two rarity tiers account for over 34% of the total EV.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings. Simulation prices are in USD; your PHP values depend on the current exchange rate.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), September 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 19.4% | 80.6% | −$2 | −$2 | +$9 | 1.10× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 29.6% | 70.4% | −$6 | −$12 | +$44 | 1.09× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 43.5% | 56.5% | −$8 | −$49 | +$177 | 1.09× |
| Pack — market (~$8.38) | $8.38 | 9.6% | 90.4% | −$5 | −$5 | +$5 | 0.66× |
| Bundle — market (~$48.00) | $48 | 10.1% | 89.9% | −$23 | −$29 | +$26 | 0.69× |
| Box — market (~$346.99) | $346.99 | 5.4% | 94.6% | −$172 | −$213 | +$13 | 0.58× |
The Break-Even Price
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. For Greninja ex SIR at ₱19,537, opening packs to find it is not realistic — the expected cost is roughly 86 packs × 11 SIRs = ~946 packs on average. At market price ₱527/pack, that's over ₱496,673 in product. Use tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Philippine price.
If you want to open packs
Retail pricing is the only format that makes sense for opening. At ₱319/pack, you're getting a 1.10× expected return. Find packs at Datablitz / Game One / Shopee PH near retail price. Avoid buying at market prices — boxes at ₱21,815 have a 94.4% loss rate and 0.58× return.
Buy Twilight Masquerade on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Twilight Masquerade packs in the Philippines?
At retail (~₱319/pack), yes — EV is ~₱349 per pack (1.10×). At market prices (₱527/pack), opening is 0.66× EV — negative. Market box at ₱21,815 is 74% above break-even. For most people, buying singles is better value.
What is the most expensive Twilight Masquerade card in PHP?
Greninja ex SIR (#214) at approximately ₱19,537, followed by Perrin SIR (#220) at ₱10,154. Among IRs, Eevee (#188) at ₱5,250 and Chansey (#187) at ₱3,237 are the standout collector pieces.
What are the pull rates for Twilight Masquerade?
Based on community mass-opening data (8,000+ packs): Hyper Rare ~0.68% (1 in ~146 packs), SIR ~1.16% (1 in ~86 packs), Illustration Rare ~7.69% (1 in ~13 packs), Ultra Rare ~6.67% (1 in ~15 packs), ACE SPEC ~5% (1 in ~20 packs), Double Rare ~20% (1 in ~5 packs).
Disclaimer: All card prices from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of September 2026. PHP values use a live exchange rate. Pull rates are community estimates from Twilight Masquerade aggregate opening data (8,000+ packs). Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulations, seed 42. This is not financial advice.