Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD), May 2026. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. The “launch retail” scenarios use 2023 prices (~$4.50/pack) for historical reference — Scarlet & Violet is out of print and retail is no longer available.
The Short Answer
Scarlet & Violet (SV01) is the launch set of the Scarlet & Violet era, released April 2023. At today's secondary market prices, opening packs is significantly negative expected value — the market pack price ($9.38) is nearly double the break-even price ($5.21). The booster box at $280 is 49% above its $188 break-even and offers only a 4.9% chance of breaking even. This is a collectors' and singles market, not a pack-opening set.
| Product | Launch Retail (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$4.50 | ~$9.38 | $5.21 | 1.16× | +EV at launch. −EV at market (0.56×). |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$27.00 | ~$56.28 | $31.26 | 1.16× | +EV at launch. −EV at market (0.56×). |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$31.26 USD (SGD ~$40) | $31.26 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$144.00 | ~$280.43 | $187.58 | 1.30× | −EV at market (0.67×). +EV at launch. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$187.58 USD (SGD ~$240) | $187.58 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The price deflation story: SV01 has followed a typical base set lifecycle — strong demand at launch, followed by steady deflation as new sets released and players moved on. The current $280 box price reflects collector demand for the first SV-era set, but the underlying card values have not kept pace. The break-even box price is $188, meaning you'd need to find a box below that threshold for opening to make mathematical sense.
Card Prices by Rarity
Scarlet & Violet (SV01) has 258 total cards across six rarity tiers above common. The set introduced the Scarlet & Violet era rarity system — including Hyper Rares (gold foil treatment), Special Illustration Rares, Illustration Rares, and Ultra Rares — which has defined all subsequent SV-era sets.
Hyper Rares (gold) — #253–258
5 cards with pricing data (one basic energy has no secondary market listing). The rarest print treatments in the set — full gold foil versions of Miraidon ex, Koraidon ex, Nest Ball, Rare Candy, and Lightning Energy. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 54 packs (1.85%).
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 254 | Koraidon ex | $7.22 | ~$9 |
| 253 | Miraidon ex | $7.05 | ~$9 |
| 256 | Rare Candy | $7.00 | ~$9 |
| 255 | Nest Ball | $5.99 | ~$8 |
| 257 | Lightning Energy | $4.17 | ~$5 |
Pool average: $6.29 USD. These are the “rainbow rare” equivalent for SV01 — premium treatments of staple cards, but not significant value drivers in the overall EV calculation. The iconic Miraidon ex and Koraidon ex gold cards are the collector targets here.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #243–252
10 cards. The main chase tier in SV01. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 32 packs (3.1%). Price range: $4.69–$80.00. Gardevoir ex is the clear standout.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 245 | Gardevoir ex | $80.00 | ~$102 |
| 251 | Miriam | $24.98 | ~$32 |
| 244 | Miraidon ex | $23.55 | ~$30 |
| 247 | Koraidon ex | $22.12 | ~$28 |
| 246 | Great Tusk ex | $11.94 | ~$15 |
| 243 | Spidops ex | $8.86 | ~$11 |
| 252 | Penny | $7.66 | ~$10 |
| 248 | Iron Treads ex | $5.49 | ~$7 |
| 249 | Arven | $5.37 | ~$7 |
| 250 | Jacq | $4.69 | ~$6 |
Pool average: $19.47 USD. Pool median: $10.17 USD. Gardevoir ex SIR at $80 heavily skews the average — most SIR pulls land in the $5–$25 range. The Miriam trainer SIR at $25 is the second most valuable card in the SIR tier, reflecting strong trainer card collector demand in SV01.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #199–222
24 cards. Expected roughly once every 13 packs (7.7%). SV01 has one of the most valuable IR pools in the entire SV era — Drowzee, Kirlia, and Ralts each exceed $45 and rank among the most expensive IRs across any SV set.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 210 | Drowzee | $63.98 | Top IR in the set — highly sought art |
| 212 | Kirlia | $46.08 | Gardevoir fan favourite |
| 211 | Ralts | $45.84 | Gardevoir evolution line |
| 204 | Slowpoke | $40.35 | |
| 215 | Riolu | $34.82 | |
| 206 | Wiglett | $29.52 | |
| 214 | Greavard | $23.13 | |
| 213 | Fidough | $21.09 | |
| 203 | Armarouge | $15.41 | |
| 208 | Pachirisu | $14.85 | |
| 207 | Dondozo | $12.26 | |
| 199 | Tarountula | $12.02 | |
| 221 | Starly | $11.89 | |
| 220 | Kingambit | $8.35 | |
| 209 | Pawmot | $7.87 | |
| 205 | Clauncher | $7.76 | |
| 222 | Skwovet | $7.17 | |
| 218 | Mabosstiff | $6.20 | |
| 200 | Dolliv | $5.68 | |
| 216 | Sandile | $5.64 | |
| 202 | Scovillain | $5.12 | |
| 217 | Klawf | $5.06 | |
| 219 | Bombirdier | $4.99 | |
| 201 | Toedscool | $4.97 |
Pool average: $18.34 USD. Pool median: $11.96 USD. This IR pool contributes more to the overall EV per pack ($1.41) than the SIR pool ($0.61) — unusual for an SV-era set. The Drowzee–Kirlia–Ralts cluster at $46–$64 is the real driver; without those three, the IR pool average drops to ~$9.
Ultra Rares (★★ full art) — #223–242
20 cards. Full-art ex cards and trainer artwork. Expected roughly once every 15 packs (6.7%). Arcanine ex leads the tier but most URs trade in the $2–$5 range.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 224 | Arcanine ex | $15.00 |
| 225 | Gyarados ex | $10.08 |
| 238 | Miriam | $6.97 |
| 239 | Penny | $5.15 |
| 228 | Gardevoir ex | $4.95 |
| 235 | Arven | $4.00 |
| 227 | Miraidon ex | $3.86 |
| 240 | Professor's Research (Sada) | $3.32 |
| 236 | Jacq | $2.99 |
| 229 | Banette ex | $2.87 |
| 237 | Katy | $2.75 |
| 231 | Koraidon ex | $2.50 |
| 242 | Team Star Grunt | $2.49 |
| 232 | Toxicroak ex | $2.46 |
| 241 | Professor's Research (Turo) | $2.00 |
| 230 | Great Tusk ex | $1.99 |
| 234 | Oinkologne ex | $1.96 |
| 226 | Magnezone ex | $1.75 |
| 233 | Iron Treads ex | $1.65 |
| 223 | Spidops ex | $1.47 |
Pool average: $4.01 USD. Arcanine ex and Gyarados ex carry the pool; the 18 remaining URs average only ~$3. Trainer-art URs (Miriam, Penny, Arven) retain above-average value due to collector demand.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — in #001–198
12 ex cards in the base set. Expected roughly once every 7 packs (14.3%). These are the bread-and-butter ex pulls — consistent but individually low value at $0.76–$2.59.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 45 | Gyarados ex | $2.59 |
| 86 | Gardevoir ex | $1.94 |
| 65 | Magnezone ex | $1.64 |
| 32 | Arcanine ex | $1.62 |
| 125 | Koraidon ex | $1.11 |
| 88 | Banette ex | $1.08 |
| 81 | Miraidon ex | $0.99 |
| 143 | Iron Treads ex | $0.99 |
| 131 | Toxicroak ex | $0.99 |
| 158 | Oinkologne ex | $0.99 |
| 123 | Great Tusk ex | $0.92 |
| 19 | Spidops ex | $0.76 |
Pool average: $1.30 USD. Gyarados ex and Gardevoir ex lead slightly due to cross-set collector demand, but most Double Rares are near-bulk at this point in the set's lifecycle.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
One standout pattern in SV01: the Illustration Rare tier dominates the top 10, with 7 of the top 10 most valuable cards being IRs rather than SIRs. The Drowzee (#210), Kirlia (#212), and Ralts (#211) IRs — all from the Gardevoir ex evolution line — collectively account for a significant portion of the set's total card value. Pulling Gardevoir ex in its SIR form is the jackpot, but hitting any of its IR pre-evolutions is also a strong result.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by SV01 pull rates from community opening data, here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 66.4% | $0.33 | $0.22 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 14.3% | $1.30 | $0.19 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 7.7% | $18.34 | $1.41 |
| Ultra Rare (#223–242) | 6.7% | $4.01 | $0.27 |
| SIR (#243–252) | 3.1% | $19.47 | $0.61 |
| Hyper Rare (#253–258) | 1.9% | $6.29 | $0.12 |
Key observations from this table:
- IRs contribute more EV ($1.41) than SIRs ($0.61) — a highly unusual result driven by the Drowzee/Kirlia/Ralts cluster at $46–$64. In most SV-era sets, SIRs dominate the EV breakdown. SV01 is an exception because its top IRs are disproportionately valuable.
- SIR pool is modestly valued at $19.47 average — much lower than recent sets. Gardevoir ex SIR at $80 is the only genuine jackpot; the remaining 9 SIRs average only ~$10. If you pull an SIR that isn't Gardevoir ex, you are likely getting $5–$25.
- Hyper Rares contribute only $0.12 EV despite a 1.85% pull rate — the gold foil cards ($4–$7 each) are novelty items, not value drivers.
- Bulk (commons + reverse holo) = $2.40 of $5.21 EV (46%) — nearly half the pack value is in guaranteed non-hit slots. This limits the downside floor but also caps how well most opening sessions go.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. Even the P95 outcome is barely at break-even — this set is heavily negative EV at market. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — launch retail (~$4.50) | $4.50 | 19.9% | 80.1% | −$2 | −$2 | +$10 | 1.17× |
| Bundle — launch retail (~$27) | $27.00 | 39.1% | 60.9% | −$3 | −$11 | +$50 | 1.16× |
| Box — launch retail (~$144) | $144.00 | 80.3% | 19.7% | +$35 | −$20 | +$137 | 1.30× |
| Pack — market (~$9.38) | $9.38 | 9.6% | 90.4% | −$7 | −$7 | +$5 | 0.56× |
| Bundle — market (~$56.28) | $56.28 | 11.0% | 89.0% | −$33 | −$40 | +$20 | 0.56× |
| Box — market (~$280.43) | $280.43 | 4.9% | 95.1% | −$102 | −$157 | −$1 | 0.67× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42. Launch retail prices are historical (2023) — product is out of print.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The box at market is the worst major-set EV we have calculated. P95 = −$1: even in the best 5% of openings, you barely break even. 95% of box openers at $280 will lose money.
- The median box loss at market is −$102 — you expect to lose over a third of your investment in the typical case. This is a function of the box being priced nearly 50% above its mathematical break-even.
- At launch retail, the box was exceptional value at 80.3% win rate and median +$35 — one of the better base set openings in the SV era. The set has simply moved well past its opening window.
- Individual packs at market (9.6% win) are the lowest odds format. The narrow spread of a single pack means almost all outcomes are losses — your P95 at $9.38 is only +$5.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $5.21 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
How far above break-even are current prices? The market pack at $9.38 is 80% above break-even ($5.21). The box at $280.43 is 49% above break-even ($187.58). For opening to make sense mathematically, prices would need to fall substantially — a box priced around $190 USD (SGD ~$243) would be the threshold.
Sensitivity to key card price changes
Because IRs drive more EV than SIRs in SV01, sensitivity analysis should cover both. The Drowzee/Kirlia/Ralts IR trio and the Gardevoir ex SIR are the primary value anchors.
| Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $5.21 | ~$31.26 | ~$187.58 |
| Top 3 IRs −25% | ~$4.95 | ~$29.70 | ~$178.20 |
| Top 3 IRs −50% | ~$4.69 | ~$28.14 | ~$168.84 |
| SIR prices −25% | ~$5.06 | ~$30.36 | ~$182.16 |
| SIR prices −50% | ~$4.91 | ~$29.46 | ~$176.76 |
| All chase cards −25% | ~$4.73 | ~$28.38 | ~$170.28 |
Even in a significant correction scenario (all chase cards −25%), the break-even box drops to $170 — still well below the current $280 market price. The gap between market price and break-even is structural, not driven by one or two expensive cards.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price across Carousell and SNKRDUNK. For the Gardevoir ex SIR at $80, buying the single is incomparably cheaper than opening to find it — the expected cost to pull a specific SIR (1 of 10 in the pool) is roughly 32 packs × 10 = 320 packs, or ~$3,000 in product at market prices. For the Drowzee IR at $64, a specific IR target costs roughly 13 packs × 24 IRs = 312 packs on average.
If you want to open packs
SV01 is not the set to open at market prices. At 0.56× return for packs and bundles, and 0.67× for boxes, you are paying a significant premium for the opening experience alone. If you must open SV01 product, a box is marginally better than packs (less per-pack overhead), but all formats are deep negative EV at current market prices.
If you find a booster box priced below $190 USD (SGD ~$243), that is approaching break-even territory and may be worth considering. Check Carousell for locally-priced product, which occasionally falls below Pricecharting's USD reference price once converted.
If you are buying sealed for investment
SV01 sealed boxes have depreciated significantly since launch and the set is out of print. Long-term collector demand for the first SV-era base set may sustain some premium, but the fundamentals (0.67× return at market) make this a poor investment for opening. As a sealed collectible, there is an argument for holding sealed boxes of the era's launch set — but this is a speculation bet on collector demand, not EV.
If you already have cards to sell
The Gardevoir ex SIR at $80 is the crown jewel. If you pulled one, the market has been relatively stable — this is a card with strong long-term collector demand given the Gardevoir franchise popularity. The Drowzee, Kirlia, and Ralts IRs at $46–$64 are also stable sellers; these are more likely to retain value due to their unique position as some of the most expensive IRs in the SV era. Standard Rares and Double Rares from SV01 are effectively bulk at $0.33 and $1.30 average respectively.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Scarlet & Violet packs?
No, not at current market prices. The expected card value is $5.21 per pack against a market price of $9.38 — a 0.56× return. Even a full box at $280 has only a 4.9% chance of breaking even. At 2023 launch retail (~$4.50/pack), opening was positive EV at 1.17×. That window has closed. Buy singles instead.
What is the most expensive Scarlet & Violet card?
Gardevoir ex SIR (#245) at approximately USD $80 (~SGD $102). The Drowzee IR (#210) at USD $63.98 is the second most valuable, making it one of the most expensive IRs in any SV-era set. Kirlia (#212) and Ralts (#211) IRs follow at ~USD $46 each.
How many SIRs are in Scarlet & Violet SV01?
10 Special Illustration Rares (#243–252) and 6 Hyper Rares (#253–258), for 16 premium rarity cards above the standard IR tier. This is the largest SIR pool in the first wave of SV-era sets. Pull rate for SIRs is approximately 3.1% (1 in 32 packs).
Why are the Drowzee and Ralts IRs so expensive?
The Drowzee, Kirlia, and Ralts IRs are expensive due to a combination of strong artwork, Gardevoir fandom driving demand for the evolution line, and their novelty as the first SV-era IRs featuring these Pokémon. SV01 being the base set of a new era gives these cards extra collector significance — they are the “first printing” of these IRs in the SV art style.
Is the Scarlet & Violet booster box worth it?
No. At market price (~$280), the box has a 4.9% win rate and a median loss of $102. The break-even box price is ~$188. You would need to find a box priced at or below $188 for opening to make mathematical sense. At $280, you are paying 49% above the mathematical break-even.
How does Scarlet & Violet compare to newer SV-era sets for pack opening?
Significantly worse at market prices. Newer sets like Journey Together, Destined Rivals, or Chaos Rising are either still in print (lower secondary market premiums) or have EV characteristics that make opening more viable. SV01 has suffered typical base set deflation — the cards have depreciated while the sealed product retains a collector premium, creating a wide negative-EV gap. For pack opening value, always prefer newer in-print sets over vintage base sets.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from aggregate SV01 opening data; The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull rates. Launch retail prices (~$4.50/pack, ~$144/box) are historical 2023 figures for reference — SV01 is out of print. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.