Shrouded Fable Pack Opening: Is It Worth It?

Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages. Shrouded Fable is a mini-set (SV6pt5) — there is no traditional 36-pack booster box.

The Short Answer

Shrouded Fable at market prices is one of the more negative-EV sets to open. The bundle market price (~$59) is 49% above the break-even of $39.71. At Singapore retail, both formats are solidly positive EV. The unusual thing about this set: its most expensive card is an Illustration Rare (Persian, $65), not an SIR.

Why the market premium is so high: Shrouded Fable sealed product is sought after because of its compact set size and the high density of desirable IRs. The bundle market price (~$59) reflects collector demand and limited print run as a mini-set — not the underlying card value ($39.71). Opening at market is a 0.67× return. Wait for retail pricing or buy singles.

Card Prices by Rarity

Shrouded Fable (SV6pt5) has 99 cards across 8 rarity tiers. The set is built around Pecharunt and its subordinates — Okidogi, Munkidori, and Fezandipiti — plus classic Pokémon like Cresselia, Zoroark, and Kingdra ex. The most notable pricing quirk: the IR pool is the most valuable in the set, averaging $29.32 per card.

Hyper Rare (◇) — #096–099

4 cards. Gold full-art treatment. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 144 packs (~0.69%). Unusually for a Pokémon set, two of the four Hyper Rares are Basic Energy cards — and they command significant premiums.

Pool average: $35.26 USD. Pool median: $27.87 USD. The gold Darkness Energy is the most valuable Hyper Rare — driven by competitive demand and collector appeal. The Earthen Vessel HR is notably cheaper than most gold trainer cards in other sets.

Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #090–095

6 cards. The SIR pool in this set is unusually modest in value compared to other SV-era sets, averaging only $26.54. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 67 packs (~1.49%).

Pool average: $26.54 USD. Pool median: $21.47 USD. Fezandipiti ex SIR and Cassiopeia SIR lead the pool. Notably, the top SIR ($41.99) is cheaper than the top IR ($65.00) — this is the only SV-era set where the IR tier outvalues the SIR tier.

Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #065–079

15 cards. The standout tier in this set — averaging $29.32 per card, the highest IR pool average of any SV-era set. Expected roughly once every 12 packs (8.3%). Several fan-favourite full-art illustrations drive exceptional demand.

Pool average: $29.32 USD. Pool median: $30.00 USD. The top 5 IRs alone average $44.82. Even the bottom of the IR pool ($8.60 Tapu Bulu) is decent value. This is why IR hits generate the most EV per pack in this set.

Ultra Rares (★★) — #080–089

10 cards. Full-art ex cards and trainer full arts. Expected roughly once per 15 packs (6.7%). The pool has a wide range — Fezandipiti ex UR (#084) at $12.98 is the standout, while Revavroom ex (#081) sits at $1.96.

Pool average: $5.61 USD. Pool median: $4.70 USD. A mediocre UR pool by SV-era standards — hitting a UR in this set is likely to yield $2–$7, with Fezandipiti ex as the rare standout.

Double Rares (★★ ex) — #012, #015, #036–039

6 ex cards in the base set. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Most are worth under $2, with Fezandipiti ex (#038) and Pecharunt ex (#039) as the exceptions.

Pool average: $2.01 USD. Pool median: $1.10 USD. The median is dragged down by the four ex cards at ~$1. Fezandipiti ex and Pecharunt ex are the only DRs worth tracking at pull.

ACE SPEC Rare — #062

1 card. Expected once every 20 packs (5%). Poké Vital A is a new ACE SPEC trainer card that allows you to recover a Pokémon from the discard pile. Its low competitive usage has depressed the secondary market price significantly.

At 5% pull rate and $1.36 value, the ACE SPEC slot contributes only $0.07 EV per pack — essentially negligible. Hitting the ACE SPEC is effectively the same as hitting a standard rare in terms of value.

Standard Rares (★) — #006, #020, #021, #025, #032, #042, #046, #058, #060

9 cards. The bulk of the pack hit slot. These appear in roughly 57.8% of packs.

Pool average: $0.50 USD. These are filler pulls — the majority of packs will land here.

Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value

The top 10 list for Shrouded Fable is dominated by Illustration Rares — 6 of the 10 most valuable cards are IRs. No single card dominates the value landscape the way Mega Greninja ex SIR dominates Chaos Rising. The set's value is more evenly spread, but also more IR-dependent than any other SV-era set.

Expected Value Per Pack

Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by community pull rate data from 1,500 tracked openings:

Key observations from this table:

• Illustration Rares contribute 37% of total EV ($2.44) — the largest single driver of expected value in this set. This is exceptional: IRs typically contribute 20–25% in other SV-era sets.
• SIRs contribute only 6% of EV ($0.40) — despite being the "chase" rarity by name. Their modest pool prices ($16–$42) and low pull rate mean they barely move the needle.
• The ACE SPEC slot is nearly worthless ($0.07) — at 5% pull rate with a $1.36 card, the ACE SPEC contributes less than a standard rare slot. This is a significant drag on EV relative to sets with competitively relevant ACE SPEC cards.
• The reverse holo slot ($1.60) contributes more EV than SIR + HR + ACE SPEC combined ($0.71). This is how IR-dominant this set is.

Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds

The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.

Win / Loss summary across all formats

P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.

• The retail bundle at 47.7% win rate is the closest format to neutral — almost a coin flip at retail pricing. Slightly negative due to the IR pool's variance.
• The market pack has an 88.2% loss rate and 0.63× return — the worst format in the set at market prices. Most packs return $2–$8 in cards against a $10.43 cost.
• Even the P95 outcome for the market bundle (+$30 profit) is modest — you need to hit a Persian IR or Duskull IR to approach the top outcome range. The cap is lower than sets with $300+ SIRs.
• The bimodal nature of the pack distribution (77.4% in the −$10 bin vs scattered wins) is driven by how pull rates work: most packs get a standard rare or DR, and only 1 in 8 gets an IR or better.

The Break-Even Price

If the expected value per pack is $6.62 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:

Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 (USD ~$5.08), well below the break-even pack price of $6.62. Retail bundles (~SGD $39 / USD ~$30.48) are also below break-even ($39.71). At Singapore retail, both formats are positive expected value (1.30–1.31× return).

Sensitivity to IR price changes

Because Illustration Rares drive 37% of this set's EV, IR price changes have a much larger effect on break-even than SIR changes do:

A 75% IR price collapse would push the break-even bundle below retail ($28.72 vs $30.48), making even retail-price opening slightly negative EV. This is plausible if top IRs like Persian, Duskull, and Horsea soften significantly — watch those cards specifically. The market bundle ($59) remains negative EV even at current prices regardless of IR performance.

What You Should Actually Do

If you want a specific card

Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For Persian IR at $65, the expected cost to pull it by opening packs is roughly 12 packs × $10.43 = $125 at market — nearly double the card price. Even at retail ($5.08/pack), the expected cost is $61, still close to the single market price with no certainty.

If you want to open packs

Only open at retail pricing. At SGD $6.50 per pack or ~SGD $39 per bundle, the math works in your favour (1.30× expected return). At market prices (SGD ~$13/pack, SGD ~$75/bundle), you are paying 1.5× the expected card value. The retail bundle at 47.7% win rate is the most reasonable format — close to a coin flip with significant upside from IR hits.

If you are buying sealed for investment

Shrouded Fable sealed at retail is positive EV. As a mini-set with a limited print run, sealed product tends to hold value better than full sets. However, at market bundle prices (~$59), the math does not support opening — and the set's investment case rests primarily on whether the IR prices (especially Persian at $65) hold. If those IRs soften, sealed value follows.

If you already have cards to sell

Persian IR (#078) at $65 is the set's crown jewel. Duskull (#068), Horsea (#067), and Houndoom (#066) IRs are the next tier at $41–$50. IR prices in smaller sets tend to be more stable than SIR prices because the collector demand (aesthetic full arts) is separate from competitive play demand. The gold energy Hyper Rares (#098 Darkness, #099 Metal) are more stable long-term as collector items — gold energies from older sets have appreciated over time.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it worth opening Shrouded Fable packs?

At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), yes — EV is ~$8.47 SGD per pack (1.31× return). At market prices (~SGD $13/pack, ~SGD $75/bundle), no — you get 0.63× and 0.67× return respectively. The median outcome is a loss in all formats because IR hits are random. Buy singles if you want specific cards.

What is the most expensive Shrouded Fable card?

Persian (#078 IR) at approximately USD $65 (~SGD $83) is the top card — unusual for an Illustration Rare to outvalue all SIRs in the set. The Basic Darkness Energy Hyper Rare (#098) is close behind at $64.81.

Does Shrouded Fable have a booster box?

No. Shrouded Fable is a mini-set (SV6pt5) released only in booster pack and 6-pack bundle format. There is no traditional 36-pack booster box. A "Booster Bundle Display Box" exists as a retail display case, but that is a case of multiple 6-pack bundles, not a product designed for opening.

How many SIRs are in Shrouded Fable?

6 Special Illustration Rares (#090–095) and 4 Hyper Rares (#096–099), for 10 premium rarity cards above the IR tier. The SIR pool includes two different Pecharunt ex SIRs (#093 and #095 — different illustrations) and a Cassiopeia SIR (#094).

Why are the Shrouded Fable Illustration Rares so expensive?

The IR illustrations in this set are unusually well-received by the collector community — Persian, Duskull, Horsea, and Houndoom in particular feature evocative full-art designs. Combined with a smaller total print run (mini-set), these IRs have held elevated prices. The Persian IR at $65 is more expensive than every SIR in the set, which almost never happens in standard SV-era releases.

What are the Shrouded Fable pull rates?

Based on community mass-opening data (~1,500 packs tracked): Hyper Rare ~0.69% (1 in ~144 packs), Special Illustration Rare ~1.49% (1 in ~67 packs), Ultra Rare ~6.67% (1 in ~15 packs), Illustration Rare ~8.33% (1 in ~12 packs), ACE SPEC ~5.0% (1 in ~20 packs), Double Rare ~20% (1 in ~5 packs). The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates.

Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from ~1,500 tracked pack openings; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.