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Configurations
7
Odds Rows
996
Autographs
41
Base Parallels
78
2026 Disney Chrome Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Authentic Autographs Refractor Base
7.8%
chance of at least one Authentic Autographs Refractor Base across 24 packs
≈ 0.08 expectedbase 1 in 296≈ 205 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Card Refractor | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| Base Card Prism Refractor | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Base Card Magenta Refractor | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Base Card Aqua Wave | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Base Card Blue Wave | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Base Card Pink Refractor | 1:33 | 52% | 0.73 |
| Base Card Yellow and Green Raywave | 1:37 | 48% | 0.65 |
| Base Card Aqua Refractor | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Base Card Green Wave | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Base Card Purple and Light Green Shimmer Refractor | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Base Card Blue Refractor | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Base Card Dark Blue and Light Blue Lava | 1:66 | 31% | 0.36 |
| Base Card 101 Dalmatians Black and White Shimmer | 1:81 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Base Card Green Refractor | 1:83 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Base Card Gold Wave | 1:83 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Base Card Purple Refractor | 1:109 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Base Card Gold Refractor | 1:163 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Base Card Pearl Refractor | 1:266 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Base Card When You Wish Upon a Star Refractor | 1:283 | 8.1% | 0.08 |
| Base Card Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor | 1:291 | 7.9% | 0.08 |
| Base Card Orange Refractor | 1:326 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Base Card Black Refractor | 1:814 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Base Card Red Wave | 1:831 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Winnie the Pooh 100th Anniversary Base Speckle Refractor | 1:839 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Base Card Red Refractor | 1:1,628 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Disney Channel Orange Refractor | 1:3,262 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Iconic Moments Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor | 1:3,871 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Monsters, Inc. 25th Anniversary Orange Refractor | 1:4,349 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Iconic Moments Orange Refractor | 1:4,349 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Lilo and Stitch Orange Refractor | 1:4,844 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Disney Ink and Paint Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor | 1:5,820 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Future Stars Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor | 1:5,820 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Card Image Variations Mickey Mouse Red and Black | 1:5,820 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Darkwing Duck 35th Anniversary Orange Refractor | 1:6,524 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Alice in Wonderland 75th Anniversary Orange Refractor | 1:6,524 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Cars 20th Anniversary Orange Refractor | 1:6,524 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Disney Ink and Paint Orange Refractor | 1:6,524 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Future Stars Orange Refractor | 1:6,524 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Card Image Variations Orange Speckle | 1:6,524 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Card Superfractor | 1:6,686 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Disney Channel Black Refractor | 1:8,171 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Monsters, Inc. 25th Anniversary Black Refractor | 1:10,932 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Iconic Moments Black Refractor | 1:10,932 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Lilo and Stitch Black Refractor | 1:12,074 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Darkwing Duck 35th Anniversary Black Refractor | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Alice in Wonderland 75th Anniversary Black Refractor | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cars 20th Anniversary Black Refractor | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Channel Red Refractor | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Ink and Paint Black Refractor | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Future Stars Black Refractor | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Base Card Image Variations Black Speckle | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Winnie the Pooh 100th Anniversary Red Refractor | 1:17,211 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Super Strength Chrome Black Refractor | 1:17,211 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Mickey and Friends Ukiyo-e Raywave | 1:17,211 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Monsters, Inc. 25th Anniversary Red Refractor Monsters, Inc. 25th Anniversary Superfractor | 1:21,863 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Iconic Moments Red Refractor | 1:21,863 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Lilo and Stitch Red Refractor | 1:23,792 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Darkwing Duck 35th Anniversary Red Refractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Alice in Wonderland 75th Anniversary Red Refractor Alice in Wonderland 75th Anniversary Superfractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cars 20th Anniversary Red Refractor Cars 20th Anniversary Superfractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Ink and Paint Red Refractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Future Stars Red Refractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Base Card Image Variations Red Speckle Base Card Image Variations Superfractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Scorched Black Refractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Toy Story 5 First Edition Black Refractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Golden Age Posters Black Refractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Art of Disney Raywave Art of Disney Superfractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| The Heart of Te Fiti Orange Refractor | 1:33,704 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Super Strength Chrome Red Refractor | 1:36,768 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Scorched Red Refractor Scorched Superfractor | 1:67,408 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Toy Story 5 First Edition Red Refractor Toy Story 5 First Edition Superfractor | 1:67,408 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Golden Age Posters Red Refractor Golden Age Posters Superfractor | 1:67,408 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Disney Reflections Raywave Disney Reflections Superfractor | 1:67,408 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The Heart of Te Fiti Black Refractor | 1:80,890 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The Rose Black Refractor | 1:80,890 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The Heart of Te Fiti Red Refractor | 1:161,780 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The Rose Red Refractor | 1:161,780 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dumbo 85th Anniversary Red Refractor | 1:404,448 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Disney Channel | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Monsters, Inc. 25th Anniversary | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Future Stars Superfractor Iconic Moments | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Darkwing Duck 35th Anniversary | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Darkwing Duck 35th Anniversary Superfractor Alice in Wonderland 75th Anniversary | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Cars 20th Anniversary | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Disney Ink and Paint | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Disney Ink and Paint Superfractor Future Stars | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Tron Tek | 1:96 | 22% | 0.25 |
| Art of Disney | 1:99 | 22% | 0.24 |
| Mickey and Friends Ukiyo-e Base | 1:335 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Sketch Cards Gold Base | 1:336 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Disney Reflections | 1:511 | 4.6% | 0.05 |
| Iconic Moments Superfractor Base Card Image Variations Base Speckle | 1:543 | 4.3% | 0.04 |
| Lilo and Stitch Base Sparkle | 1:1,425 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Helix | 1:3,262 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Tron Tek Gold | 1:3,262 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Sketch Cards Black | 1:3,275 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Mickey and Friends Ukiyo-e Kaleidoscope | 1:3,371 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Tron Tek Orange | 1:6,524 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Art of Disney Kaleidoscope | 1:6,524 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Super Strength Chrome Base Speckle | 1:8,426 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Mickey and Friends Ukiyo-e Shimmer | 1:8,426 | 0.3% | 0 |
| The Heart of Te Fiti Base Sparkle | 1:11,393 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Disney Reflections Kaleidoscope | 1:13,047 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Scorched Base Speckle | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Toy Story 5 First Edition Base Speckle | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Golden Age Posters Sparkle Base | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Tron Tek Green | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Art of Disney Shimmer | 1:16,509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| The Rose Base Sparkle | 1:23,792 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Interal Artists Sketch | 1:27,893 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Tron Tek Red Tron Tek Black | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Reflections Shimmer | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Pixar Interal Artists Sketch | 1:40,445 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Channel Superfractor | 1:80,890 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Mickey and Friends Ukiyo-e Superfractor | 1:80,890 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Winnie the Pooh 100th Anniversary Superfractor | 1:115,557 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Lilo and Stitch Superfractor | 1:115,557 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Super Strength Chrome Superfractor | 1:161,780 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dumbo 85th Anniversary Superfractor | 1:808,896 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The Heart of Te Fiti Superfractor | 1:808,896 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The Rose Superfractor | 1:808,896 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Authentic Autographs Refractor Base | 1:296 | 7.8% | 0.08 |
| Authentic Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:425 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Authentic Autographs Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor | 1:716 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Authentic Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:802 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Authentic Autographs Black Refractor | 1:1,950 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Cars Authentic Autographs Checker Flag Superfractor Disney Channel Autograph Variation | 1:2,064 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Superfractor Disney Princesses Autographs | 1:2,879 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Green Refractor | 1:2,910 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Disney Princesses Autographs Green Refractor | 1:2,910 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Purple Refractor | 1:3,852 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Disney Princesses Autographs Purple Refractor | 1:3,852 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Facsimile Autographs | 1:3,871 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Authentic Autographs Red Refractor | 1:3,889 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Gold Refractor | 1:5,778 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Disney Princesses Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:5,778 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Facsimile Autographs Superfractor Dual Facsimile Autographs | 1:9,746 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Quad Facsimile Autographs Superfractor Dumbo 85th Anniversary Base Speckle | 1:9,987 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor | 1:10,240 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Disney Princesses Autographs Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor | 1:10,240 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Facsimile Autographs Black Refractor | 1:10,932 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Dual Facsimile Autographs Superfractor Triple Facsimile Autographs | 1:11,556 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Orange Refractor | 1:11,556 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Disney Princesses Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:11,556 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Disney Princesses Autographs Superfractor Disney Dual Autographs | 1:14,445 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Quad Facsimile Autographs | 1:19,260 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Authentic Autographs Superfractor | 1:19,260 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Facsimile Autographs Red Refractor | 1:21,863 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dual Facsimile Autographs Black Refractor | 1:26,964 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Black Refractor | 1:28,890 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Princesses Autographs Black Refractor | 1:28,890 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Dual Autographs Red Refractor | 1:28,890 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Triple Facsimile Autographs Black Refractor | 1:32,356 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Quad Autographs Disney Quad Autographs Superfractor | 1:36,768 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Dual Autographs Superfractor Disney Triple Autographs Disney Triple Autographs Superfractor | 1:40,445 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cars Authentic Autographs Checker Flag X-Fractor | 1:47,583 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dual Facsimile Autographs Red Refractor | 1:53,927 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Quad Facsimile Autographs Black Refractor | 1:53,927 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Red Refractor | 1:57,779 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Disney Princesses Autographs Red Refractor | 1:57,779 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Triple Facsimile Autographs Red Refractor Triple Facsimile Autographs Superfractor | 1:67,408 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Quad Facsimile Autographs Red Refractor | 1:101,112 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Relics & Memorabilia | |||
| Helix Superfractor Mickey & Friends MLB Home Jersey Set | 1:987 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Mickey & Friends MLB Home Jersey Set Black Refractor | 1:5,429 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Mickey & Friends MLB Home Jersey Set Red Refractor | 1:10,932 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Mickey & Friends MLB Home Jersey Set Superfractor | 1:53,927 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Disney Chrome (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Disney Chrome. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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