What are the odds of an autograph in 2026 Disney Chrome?

The rarest autograph tier we list, the Quad Facsimile Autographs Red Refractor, falls at 1:101,112 packs in Hobby. Autograph odds vary widely by parallel — set your pack count on this page and pick any autograph from the dropdown to see the live chance of at least one, plus how many packs it takes for a 50%, 90% or 95% shot. There are 41 autograph rows in Hobby alone.

How rare is the Base Card Refractor in 2026 Disney Chrome?

The Base Card Refractor lands at 1:2 packs (Hobby) — about a 100% chance of at least one across 24 packs. Remember this is the odds of pulling the parallel at all; a specific player's Base Card Refractor is far longer odds.

How does the 2026 Disney Chrome odds calculator work?

Enter how many packs you're opening and pick the parallel, autograph or insert you're chasing. The tool uses Topps' official published per-pack odds (1:N) and treats each pack as an independent draw, computing the chance of at least one as 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs, the expected number, and — working backwards — how many packs you'd need for a 50%, 90% or 95% chance. Switch between 7 product configurations (Hobby, Value Box CEE, Value Box EA, Value Box SE, Mega Box CEE, Mega Box EA, Mega Box SE); each has its own odds.

Are these 2026 Disney Chrome odds official?

Yes. Every rate here comes straight from Topps' official odds sheet for 2026 Disney Chrome — 996 parallel/insert/autograph odds across 7 configurations. We don't estimate or sample; we present the manufacturer's stated odds and do the probability math on top.

2026 Disney Chrome Odds Calculator — Autograph & Parallel Pull Rates (Hobby, Value Box CEE, Value Box EA & more)

Configurations

Odds Rows

996

Autographs

Base Parallels

2026 Disney Chrome Pack Odds Calculator

Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.

Product configuration

How many packs are you opening?

packs

What are you chasing?

24 packs · Hobby · Authentic Autographs Refractor Base

7.8%

chance of at least one Authentic Autographs Refractor Base across 24 packs

≈ 0.08 expectedbase 1 in 296≈ 205 packs for 50%

Packs to hit

Parallel	Per pack	≥1 in 24	Expected



Authentic Autographs Refractor Base	1:296	7.8%	0.08
Authentic Autographs Gold Refractor	1:425	5.5%	0.06
Authentic Autographs Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor	1:716	3.3%	0.03
Authentic Autographs Orange Refractor	1:802	2.9%	0.03
Authentic Autographs Black Refractor	1:1,950	1.2%	0.01
Cars Authentic Autographs Checker Flag Superfractor Disney Channel Autograph Variation	1:2,064	1.2%	0.01
Disney Channel Autograph Variation Superfractor Disney Princesses Autographs	1:2,879	0.8%	0.01
Disney Channel Autograph Variation Green Refractor	1:2,910	0.8%	0.01
Disney Princesses Autographs Green Refractor	1:2,910	0.8%	0.01
Disney Channel Autograph Variation Purple Refractor	1:3,852	0.6%	0.01
Disney Princesses Autographs Purple Refractor	1:3,852	0.6%	0.01
Facsimile Autographs	1:3,871	0.6%	0.01
Authentic Autographs Red Refractor	1:3,889	0.6%	0.01
Disney Channel Autograph Variation Gold Refractor	1:5,778	0.4%	0
Disney Princesses Autographs Gold Refractor	1:5,778	0.4%	0
Facsimile Autographs Superfractor Dual Facsimile Autographs	1:9,746	0.2%	0
Quad Facsimile Autographs Superfractor Dumbo 85th Anniversary Base Speckle	1:9,987	0.2%	0
Disney Channel Autograph Variation Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor	1:10,240	0.2%	0
Disney Princesses Autographs Mickey Mouse Red and Black Refractor	1:10,240	0.2%	0
Facsimile Autographs Black Refractor	1:10,932	0.2%	0
Dual Facsimile Autographs Superfractor Triple Facsimile Autographs	1:11,556	0.2%	0
Disney Channel Autograph Variation Orange Refractor	1:11,556	0.2%	0
Disney Princesses Autographs Orange Refractor	1:11,556	0.2%	0
Disney Princesses Autographs Superfractor Disney Dual Autographs	1:14,445	0.2%	0
Quad Facsimile Autographs	1:19,260	0.1%	0
Authentic Autographs Superfractor	1:19,260	0.1%	0
Facsimile Autographs Red Refractor	1:21,863	0.1%	0
Dual Facsimile Autographs Black Refractor	1:26,964	0.1%	0
Disney Channel Autograph Variation Black Refractor	1:28,890	0.1%	0
Disney Princesses Autographs Black Refractor	1:28,890	0.1%	0
Disney Dual Autographs Red Refractor	1:28,890	0.1%	0
Triple Facsimile Autographs Black Refractor	1:32,356	0.1%	0
Disney Quad Autographs Disney Quad Autographs Superfractor	1:36,768	0.1%	0
Disney Dual Autographs Superfractor Disney Triple Autographs Disney Triple Autographs Superfractor	1:40,445	0.1%	0
Cars Authentic Autographs Checker Flag X-Fractor	1:47,583	0.1%	0
Dual Facsimile Autographs Red Refractor	1:53,927	0.0%	0
Quad Facsimile Autographs Black Refractor	1:53,927	0.0%	0
Disney Channel Autograph Variation Red Refractor	1:57,779	0.0%	0
Disney Princesses Autographs Red Refractor	1:57,779	0.0%	0
Triple Facsimile Autographs Red Refractor Triple Facsimile Autographs Superfractor	1:67,408	0.0%	0
Quad Facsimile Autographs Red Refractor	1:101,112	0.0%	0

These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Disney Chrome (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.

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How the Odds Are Calculated

Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:

Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card, 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs.
Expected — the average number across your packs, packs / N.
Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards, ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).

Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.

Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Disney Chrome. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.