2025 Topps Chrome McDonald's All-American Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Refractor | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base McDonalds Logo Refractor | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Base Aqua Wave | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| High Rises Refractor | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Top Recruits Refractor | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Prospect Paths Refractor | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| BillBoard Ink Refractor | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Winning Tags Refractor | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Hype to Legacy Refractor | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| BillBoard Ink MCD Logo Refractor | 1:26 | 61% | 0.92 |
| Winning Tags MCD Logo Refractor | 1:26 | 61% | 0.92 |
| Base Black Wave | 1:340 | 6.8% | 0.07 |
| Base Red Wave | 1:678 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 9:1 | 100% | — |
| Base McFlurry | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| High Rises | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Top Recruits | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Base Purple | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Prospect Paths | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Base Red Lava | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Event Autogrpahs | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Base Purple Lava | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Hype to Legacy | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Base Blue Lava | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Base Gold | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| BillBoard Ink Green | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Winning Tags Green | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Base Tie-Dye | 1:30 | 56% | 0.80 |
| High Rises Gold | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| BillBoard Ink Gold | 1:39 | 46% | 0.62 |
| Winning Tags Gold | 1:39 | 46% | 0.62 |
| All-American Drip | 1:48 | 40% | 0.50 |
| Base Orange | 1:50 | 38% | 0.48 |
| Top Recruits Gold | 1:51 | 38% | 0.47 |
| Base Black | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Prospect Paths Gold | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| High Rises Tie-Dye | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| BillBoard Ink Tie-Dye | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Winning Tags Tie-Dye | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Top Recruits Tie-Dye | 1:101 | 21% | 0.24 |
| BillBoard Ink Orange | 1:127 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Winning Tags Orange | 1:127 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Base Red | 1:150 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Hype to Legacy Gold | 1:152 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Prospect Paths Tie-Dye | 1:152 | 15% | 0.16 |
| BillBoard Ink Black | 1:191 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Winning Tags Black | 1:191 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Hype to Legacy Tie-Dye | 1:303 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| High Rises Red | 1:379 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| BillBoard Ink Red | 1:381 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Winning Tags Red | 1:381 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Top Recruits Red | 1:503 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Base Superfractor | 1:746 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Prospect Paths Red | 1:754 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Hype to Legacy Red | 1:1507 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| High Rises SuperFractor | 1:1855 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| BillBoard Ink SuperFractor | 1:1904 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Winning Tags SuperFractor | 1:1904 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Top Recruits SuperFractor | 1:2495 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Prospect Paths SuperFractor | 1:3617 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Hype to Legacy SuperFractor | 1:7234 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Legends Autographs Green | 1:48 | 40% | 0.50 |
| Legends Autographs MCD Logo Refractor | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Golden Patch Autographs Tie-Dye | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Legends Autographs Gold | 1:86 | 24% | 0.28 |
| Legends Autographs Refractor | 1:91 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Legends Autographs Tie-Dye | 1:171 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Legends Autographs Orange | 1:284 | 8.1% | 0.08 |
| Legends Autographs Black | 1:426 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Legends Autographs Red | 1:804 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Golden Patch Autographs Adidas | 1:1904 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Golden Patch Autographs MCD Logo Refractor | 1:1904 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Legends Autographs SuperFractor | 1:4019 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Topps Chrome McDonald's All-American Basketball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Topps Chrome McDonald's All-American Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.