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Configurations
7
Odds Rows
1,008
Autographs
38
Base Parallels
74
2026 Marvel Comics Chrome Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs
23%
chance of at least one Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs across 24 packs
≈ 0.26 expectedbase 1 in 91≈ 63 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Characters Refractor | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| Base Characters Storm's Lightning Refractor | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Base Characters Spider-Web Refractor | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Base Characters Pink Refractor | 1:30 | 56% | 0.80 |
| Base Characters Storm's Green Lightning Refractor | 1:35 | 50% | 0.69 |
| Base Characters Aqua Refractor | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Base Characters Storm's Purple Lightning Refractor | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Base Characters Blue Refractor | 1:50 | 38% | 0.48 |
| Base Characters Storm's Gold Lightning Refractor | 1:70 | 29% | 0.34 |
| Base Characters Hulk Green Lazer Refractor | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Base Characters Dazzler's Silver Rhythm Refractor | 1:93 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Base Characters Purple Shimmer Refractor | 1:99 | 22% | 0.24 |
| Base Characters Spider-Web Red/Blue Refractor | 1:119 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Base Characters Storm's Orange Lightning Refractor | 1:139 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Base Characters Gold Refractor | 1:148 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Characters Gold Wave Refractor | 1:148 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Characters Captain America's Star Refractor | 1:180 | 13% | 0.13 |
| Base Characters Human Torch Refractor | 1:190 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Base Characters Orange Refractor | 1:295 | 7.8% | 0.08 |
| Base Characters Orange Wave Refractor | 1:295 | 7.8% | 0.08 |
| Fanfare Green Speckle Refractor | 1:298 | 7.8% | 0.08 |
| Base Characters Storm's Black Lightning Refractor | 1:347 | 6.7% | 0.07 |
| Fanfare Purple Speckle Refractor | 1:394 | 5.9% | 0.06 |
| Fanfare Gold Speckle Refractor | 1:591 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Base Characters Storm's Red Lightning Refractor | 1:694 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Base Characters Black Refractor | 1:738 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Base Characters Black Wave Refractor | 1:738 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Fanfare Orange Wave Refractor | 1:1,181 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| 60 Years of Black Panther Gold Wave Refractor | 1:1,388 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Base Characters Red Refractor | 1:1,475 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Characters Red Wave Refractor | 1:1,475 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Future Stars Gold Refractor | 1:1,475 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Marvel Icons Gold Refractor | 1:1,475 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Meanwhile… Gold Refractor | 1:1,475 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| One World Under Doom Gold Refractor | 1:1,475 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| The Beyond Gold Refractor | 1:1,475 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| 60 Years of Black Panther Orange Wave Refractor | 1:2,770 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Fanfare Black Wave Refractor | 1:2,956 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Future Stars Orange Refractor | 1:2,956 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Marvel Icons Orange Refractor | 1:2,956 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Meanwhile… Orange Refractor | 1:2,956 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| One World Under Doom Orange Refractor | 1:2,956 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| The Beyond Orange Refractor | 1:2,956 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Varied Visage: AoA Orange Wave Refractor | 1:5,297 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Classic Comic Book Covers Orange Refractor | 1:5,859 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Topps Originals Orange Refractor | 1:5,859 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Astonishing Orange Wave Refractor | 1:5,859 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Fanfare Red Wave Refractor | 1:5,911 | 0.4% | 0 |
| 60 Years of Black Panther Black Wave Refractor | 1:6,969 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Future Stars Black Refractor | 1:7,356 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Marvel Icons Black Refractor | 1:7,356 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Meanwhile… Black Refractor | 1:7,356 | 0.3% | 0 |
| One World Under Doom Black Refractor | 1:7,356 | 0.3% | 0 |
| The Beyond Black Refractor | 1:7,356 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Cordially Invited Orange Refractor | 1:11,822 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Topps Patrimony Refractor | 1:11,822 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Varied Visage: AoA Black Wave Refractor | 1:13,511 | 0.2% | 0 |
| 60 Years of Black Panther Red Wave Refractor | 1:13,792 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Classic Comic Book Covers Black Refractor | 1:14,392 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Topps Originals Black Refractor | 1:14,392 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Future Stars Red Refractor | 1:14,712 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Marvel Icons Red Refractor | 1:14,712 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Meanwhile… Red Refractor | 1:14,712 | 0.2% | 0 |
| One World Under Doom Red Refractor | 1:14,712 | 0.2% | 0 |
| The Beyond Red Refractor | 1:14,712 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Astonishing Black Wave Refractor | 1:14,712 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Varied Visage: AoA Red Wave Refractor | 1:27,584 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Classic Comic Book Covers Red Refractor | 1:28,784 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cordially Invited Black Refractor | 1:28,784 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps Originals Red Refractor | 1:28,784 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps Patrimony Black Refractor | 1:28,784 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Astonishing Red Wave Refractor | 1:28,784 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cordially Invited Red Refractor | 1:60,184 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Patrimony Red Refractor | 1:60,184 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base Characters | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Fanfare | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Future Stars | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Marvel Icons | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Meanwhile… | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| One World Under Doom | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| The Beyond | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| 60 Years of Black Panther | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Base Characters Marvel Logofractor | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Sketch Cards | 1:135 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Base Clawed Chrome Characters | 1:174 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Classic Comic Book Covers | 1:192 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Base Clawed Chrome Characters Black Wolverine Adamantium | 1:347 | 6.7% | 0.07 |
| Topps Originals | 1:576 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Base Clawed Chrome Characters Red Wolverine Adamantium | 1:694 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Cordially Invited | 1:960 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Marvel Reflections | 1:960 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Astonishing | 1:960 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Varied Visage: AoA | 1:960 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Golden Anniversaries | 1:2,956 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Comic Excerpts: Spider-Man | 1:3,138 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Base Clawed Chrome Characters Superfractor | 1:3,467 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Base Characters Superfractor | 1:7,356 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Artist Originals | 1:14,712 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Fanfare Superfractor 1:171.596 1:171.596 1:171.596 | 1:28,784 | 0.1% | 0 |
| 60 Years of Black Panther Superfractor | 1:66,202 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Future Stars Superfractor | 1:73,558 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Marvel Icons Superfractor | 1:73,558 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Meanwhile… Superfractor | 1:73,558 | 0.0% | 0 |
| One World Under Doom Superfractor | 1:73,558 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The Beyond Superfractor | 1:73,558 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Golden Anniversaries Superfractor | 1:110,336 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Classic Comic Book Covers Superfractor | 1:132,404 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Marvel Reflections Superfractor | 1:132,404 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Originals Superfractor | 1:132,404 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Astonishing Superfractor | 1:132,404 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Varied Visage: AoA Superfractor | 1:132,404 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Cordially Invited Superfractor | 1:331,008 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Patrimony Superfractor | 1:331,008 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The One and Only Superfractor | 1:331,008 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The One and Only: Stan Lee & Steve Ditko Superfractor | 1:662,016 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs | 1:91 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs Green Refractor | 1:276 | 8.3% | 0.09 |
| Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs Purple Refractor | 1:364 | 6.4% | 0.07 |
| Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:531 | 4.4% | 0.05 |
| Cordially Invited Autographs | 1:743 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:1,060 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Varied Visage: AoA Autographs Gold Wave Refractor | 1:1,698 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Marvel Facsimile Autographs | 1:1,965 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs Black Refractor | 1:2,649 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Varied Visage: AoA Autographs Orange Wave Refractor | 1:3,395 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Marvel Facsimile Autographs Orange Wave Refractor | 1:3,941 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Marvel Facsimile Dual Autographs | 1:4,941 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs Red Refractor | 1:5,297 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Triple Autographs | 1:7,356 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Cordially Invited Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:7,439 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Varied Visage: AoA Autographs Black Wave Refractor | 1:8,380 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Autographs Black Wave Refractor | 1:9,881 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Dual Autographs Orange Wave Refractor | 1:9,881 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Quad Autographs | 1:14,712 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Triple Autographs Orange Wave Refractor | 1:14,712 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Varied Visage: AoA Autographs Red Wave Refractor | 1:16,551 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cordially Invited Autographs Black Refractor | 1:18,390 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Autographs Red Wave Refractor | 1:19,472 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Dual Autographs Black Wave Refractor | 1:24,520 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Authentic Marvel Comic Book Artist Autographs Superfractor | 1:26,481 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Quad Autographs Orange Wave Refractor | 1:28,784 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cordially Invited Autographs Red Refractor | 1:31,525 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Triple Autographs Black Wave Refractor | 1:36,779 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Dual Autographs Red Wave Refractor | 1:47,287 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Quad Autographs Black Wave Refractor | 1:73,558 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Triple Autographs Red Wave Refractor | 1:73,558 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Varied Visage: AoA Autographs Superfractor | 1:82,752 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Autographs Superfractor | 1:94,574 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Quad Autographs Red Wave Refractor | 1:132,404 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Cordially Invited Autographs Superfractor | 1:165,504 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Dual Autographs Superfractor | 1:220,672 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Triple Autographs Superfractor | 1:331,008 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Marvel Facsimile Quad Autographs Superfractor | 1:662,016 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Marvel Comics Chrome (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Marvel Comics Chrome. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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