2026 Topps Chrome Disney Sapphire Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Card Blue Sapphire | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Card Green Sapphire | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Beauty and the Beast 35th Anniversary Base Sapphire | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Base Card Gold Sapphire Base Card White Sapphire 01:14:00 | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Base Card Orange Sapphire | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Base Card Black Sapphire | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Infinite Sapphire Base Sapphire | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Base Card Red Sapphire | 1:84 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Beauty and the Beast 35th Anniversary Orange Sapphire | 1:336 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Base Card Padparadscha Sapphire | 1:418 | 5.6% | 0.06 |
| Beauty and the Beast 35th Anniversary Purple Sapphire | 1:560 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Beauty and the Beast 35th Anniversary Black Sapphire | 1:840 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Beauty and the Beast 35th Anniversary Red Sapphire | 1:1,715 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| The Rose Base Sapphire | 1:2,370 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Beauty and the Beast 35th Anniversary Padparadscha Sapphire | 1:8,056 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Infinite Sapphire Padparadscha Sapphire | 1:8,056 | 0.3% | 0 |
| The Rose Black Sapphire | 1:8,056 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Hidden Gems Padparadscha | 1:16,112 | 0.1% | 0 |
| The Rose Red Sapphire | 1:16,112 | 0.1% | 0 |
| The Rose Padparadscha Sapphire | 1:80,560 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Hidden Gems Emerald | 1:338 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Hidden Gems Onyx | 1:1,715 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Hidden Gems Ruby | 1:3,662 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Autographs | |||
| Authentic Autographs Base Blue Sapphire | 1:171 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Authentic Autographs Black Sapphire | 1:372 | 6.3% | 0.06 |
| Facsimile Autographs Base Blue Sapphire | 1:560 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Authentic Autographs Red Sapphire | 1:630 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Disney Dual Autographs Base Blue Sapphire | 1:861 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Facsimile Autographs Red Sapphire | 1:1,135 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Dual Facsimile Autographs Base Blue Sapphire | 1:1,439 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Base Blue Sapphire | 1:1,636 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Black Sapphire | 1:1,645 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Triple Facsimile Autographs Base Blue Sapphire | 1:1,715 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Disney Dual Autographs Red Sapphire | 1:1,818 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Disney Triple Autographs Base Blue Sapphire | 1:2,337 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Disney Triple Autographs Red Sapphire | 1:2,370 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Dual Facsimile Autographs Red Sapphire | 1:2,984 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Quad Facsimile Autographs Base Blue Sapphire | 1:2,984 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Authentic Autographs Padparadscha Sapphire | 1:3,146 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Red Sapphire | 1:3,272 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Triple Facsimile Autographs Red Sapphire | 1:3,662 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Disney Quad Autographs Base Blue Sapphire | 1:5,371 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Disney Quad Autographs Red Sapphire | 1:5,453 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Facsimile Autographs Padparadscha Sapphire | 1:6,714 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Quad Facsimile Autographs Red Sapphire | 1:6,714 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Disney Dual Autographs Padpradascha | 1:8,179 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Disney Triple Autographs Padpradascha | 1:11,684 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Disney Channel Autograph Variation Padpradascha | 1:16,358 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dual Facsimile Autographs Padparadscha Sapphire | 1:26,854 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Quad Facsimile Autographs Padparadscha Sapphire | 1:26854 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Disney Quad Autographs Padpradascha | 1:27,263 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Triple Facsimile Autographs Padparadscha Sapphire | 1:40,280 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Relics & Memorabilia | |||
| Mickey & Friends MLB Home Jersey Set Blue Sapphire | 1:279 | 8.3% | 0.09 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Topps Chrome Disney Sapphire (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Topps Chrome Disney Sapphire. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.