2025-26 Bowman Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Chrome Autograph | 1:68 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Refractor | 1:100 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Speckle Refractor | 1:168 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Refractor | 1:192 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Purple Refractor | 1:203 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Purple Refractor | 1:325 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Blue Refractor | 1:325 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Blue X-Fractor | 1:332 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Speckle Refractor | 1:342 | 6.8% | 0.07 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Blue Refractor | 1:416 | 5.6% | 0.06 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:476 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Blue X-Fractor | 1:621 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Yellow Refractor | 1:701 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:742 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Yellow Refractor | 1:853 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:876 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange Shimmer Refractor | 1:876 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Reptilian Orange Refractor | 1:877 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:913 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Orange Shimmer Refractor | 1:1032 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gold Shimmer Refractor | 1:1046 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:1048 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Reptilian Orange Refractor | 1:1097 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:1161 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Gold Shimmer Refractor | 1:1346 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs | 1:1417 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:4080 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black Refractor | 1:5171 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Black Refractor | 1:5246 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black X-Fractor | 1:5246 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Black X-Fractor | 1:5443 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:8144 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Red Refractor | 1:10267 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Red Lava Refractor | 1:10267 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Red Refractor | 1:10465 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Red Lava Refractor | 1:10568 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs Black Refractor | 1:20246 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs Red Refractor | 1:40116 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Bowman Dual Autographs | 1:49233 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph SuperFractor | 1:50378 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph SuperFractor | 1:50378 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:120347 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs SuperFractor | 1:196931 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:240694 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Dual Autographs SuperFractor | 1:433248 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Autograph Red Refractor | 1:722080 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Triple Autograph SuperFractor Base Chrome Retrofractor Autograph SuperFractor | 1:2166240 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Bowman Basketball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Bowman Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.