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Configurations
6
Odds Rows
1,112
Autographs
48
Base Parallels
154
2025-26 Bowman Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Base Chrome Autograph
30%
chance of at least one Base Chrome Autograph across 24 packs
≈ 0.35 expectedbase 1 in 68≈ 47 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Chrome Reptilian Refractor | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Chrome Prospect Reptilian Refractor | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Base Chrome Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:30 | 56% | 0.80 |
| Chrome Prospect Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Talent Tracker Refractor | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Gen Next Refractor | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Very Important Prospects Refractor | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Bowman Verified Refractor | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Young Kings Refractor | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Greatness Loading Refractor | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Base Chrome Refractor | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Rockstar Rookies Refractor | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| ROY Favorites Refractor | 1:100 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Hobby Stars Refractor | 1:100 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Base Chrome Speckle Refractor | 1:126 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Base Chrome Purple Refractor | 1:150 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Chrome Prospect Refractor | 1:150 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Chrome Fuchsia Refractor | 1:188 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Base Chrome Reptilian Fuchsia Refractor | 1:188 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Chrome Prospect Lava Refractor | 1:188 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Base Chrome Reptilian Blue Refractor | 1:250 | 9.2% | 0.10 |
| Base Chrome Blue Refractor | 1:250 | 9.2% | 0.10 |
| Base Chrome Blue Shimmer Refractor | 1:250 | 9.2% | 0.10 |
| Chrome Prospect Speckle Refractor | 1:251 | 9.1% | 0.10 |
| Chrome Prospect Purple Refractor | 1:300 | 7.7% | 0.08 |
| Base Chrome Yellow X-Fractor | 1:307 | 7.5% | 0.08 |
| Base Chrome Yellow Wave Refractor | 1:307 | 7.5% | 0.08 |
| Chrome Prospect Aqua X-Fractor | 1:368 | 6.3% | 0.07 |
| Base Chrome Steel Metal Refractor | 1:374 | 6.2% | 0.06 |
| Chrome Prospect Fuchsia Refractor | 1:376 | 6.2% | 0.06 |
| Base Chrome Orange Refractor | 1:449 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Base Chrome Orange Shimmer Refractor | 1:449 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Base Chrome Reptilian Orange Refractor | 1:449 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Base Chrome Yellow Refractor | 1:499 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospect Reptilian Blue Refractor | 1:499 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospect Blue Refractor | 1:499 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospect Yellow X-Fractor | 1:614 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Base Chrome Gold Refractor | 1:748 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Gold Shimmer Refractor | 1:748 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Reptilian Gold Refractor | 1:748 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Steel Metal Refractor | 1:748 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Orange Refractor | 1:899 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Reptilian Orange Refractor | 1:899 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Yellow Refractor | 1:998 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Talent Tracker Purple Refractor | 1:1197 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Gen Next Purple Refractor | 1:1197 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Very Important Prospects Purple Refractor | 1:1197 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Bowman Verified Purple Refractor | 1:1197 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Young Kings Purple Refractor | 1:1197 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Greatness Loading Purple Refractor | 1:1197 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Gold Refractor | 1:1497 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Reptilian Gold Refractor | 1:1497 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Rockstar Rookies Purple Refractor | 1:1497 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Anime NBA Refractor | 1:1663 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Base Chrome Etched-In Glass Variation Refractor | 1:1733 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Spotlights NBA Refractor | 1:1733 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Talent Tracker Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:1995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Gen Next Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:1995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Very Important Prospects Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:1995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Verified Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:1995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| ROY Favorites Purple Refractor | 1:1995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Hobby Stars Purple Refractor | 1:1995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Young Kings Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:1995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Greatness Loading Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:1995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Base Chrome Rose Gold Refractor | 1:2167 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Base Chrome Rose Gold Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:2167 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Base Chrome Rose Gold X-Fractor | 1:2167 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Talent Tracker Aqua Refractor | 1:2394 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Gen Next Aqua Refractor | 1:2394 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Very Important Prospects Aqua Refractor | 1:2394 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Verified Aqua Refractor | 1:2394 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Young Kings Aqua Refractor | 1:2394 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Greatness Loading Aqua Refractor | 1:2394 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Rockstar Rookies Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:2493 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Rockstar Rookies Aqua Refractor | 1:2993 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| ROY Favorites Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:3328 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Hobby Stars Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:3328 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Etched-In Glass Variation Refractor | 1:3466 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Spotlights NIL Refractor | 1:3466 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Talent Tracker Orange Refractor | 1:3593 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Gen Next Orange Refractor | 1:3593 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Very Important Prospects Orange Refractor | 1:3593 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Verified Orange Refractor | 1:3593 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Young Kings Orange Refractor | 1:3593 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Greatness Loading Orange Refractor | 1:3593 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Base Chrome Black Refractor | 1:3742 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Base Chrome Black X-Fractor | 1:3742 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| ROY Favorites Aqua Refractor | 1:3990 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Hobby Stars Aqua Refractor | 1:3990 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Opening Statement Signatures Gold Refractor | 1:4240 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Future Script Gold Refractor | 1:4430 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Rockstar Rookies Orange Refractor | 1:4495 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Timeless Touch Signatures Gold Refractor | 1:4629 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Rose Gold Refractor | 1:4992 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Rose Gold Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:4992 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Talent Tracker Gold Refractor | 1:5985 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Gen Next Gold Refractor | 1:5985 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Very Important Prospects Gold Refractor | 1:5985 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Bowman Verified Gold Refractor | 1:5985 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Young Kings Gold Refractor | 1:5985 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Greatness Loading Gold Refractor | 1:5985 | 0.4% | 0 |
| ROY Favorites Orange Refractor | 1:6001 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Hobby Stars Orange Refractor | 1:6001 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Anime NIL Refractor | 1:6506 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Red Refractor | 1:7496 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Red Lava Refractor | 1:7496 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Reptilian Red Refractor | 1:7496 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Black Refractor | 1:7496 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Black X-Fractor | 1:7496 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Rockstar Rookies Gold Refractor | 1:7496 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Opening Statement Signatures Orange Refractor | 1:8144 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Timeless Touch Signatures Orange Refractor | 1:8144 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Future Script Orange Refractor | 1:8842 | 0.3% | 0 |
| ROY Favorites Gold Refractor | 1:9983 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Hobby Stars Gold Refractor | 1:9983 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Chrome FireFractor | 1:12522 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Refractor | 1:13050 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bowman GPK NBA Refractor | 1:13050 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Crystalized NBA Gold Crystal Refractor | 1:13050 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Red Refractor | 1:15044 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Reptilian Red Refractor | 1:15044 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bowman GPK NIL Refractor | 1:16288 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Future Script Black Refractor | 1:20246 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Opening Statement Signatures Black Refractor | 1:20246 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Timeless Touch Signatures Black Refractor | 1:20246 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect FireFractor | 1:25189 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Anime NBA Black Refractor | 1:26100 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Crystalized NIL Gold Crystal Refractor | 1:26100 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Crystalized NBA Orange Crystal Refractor | 1:26100 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Future Script Red Refractor | 1:40116 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Opening Statement Signatures Red Refractor | 1:40116 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Timeless Touch Signatures Red Refractor | 1:40116 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Anime NBA Red Refractor | 1:52836 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Crystalized NIL Orange Crystal Refractor | 1:52836 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Talent Tracker Red Refractor | 1:60174 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Gen Next Red Refractor | 1:60174 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Very Important Prospects Red Refractor | 1:60174 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Verified Red Refractor | 1:60174 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Young Kings Red Refractor | 1:60174 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Greatness Loading Red Refractor | 1:60174 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Gold Refractor | 1:65644 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Rockstar Rookies Red Refractor | 1:77366 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Spotlights NBA Red Refractor | 1:86650 | 0.0% | 0 |
| ROY Favorites Red Refractor | 1:103155 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hobby Stars Red Refractor | 1:103155 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Orange Refractor | 1:135390 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Anime NIL Black Refractor | 1:135390 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Crystalized NBA Red Crystal Refractor | 1:135390 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Spotlights NIL Red Refractor | 1:144416 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman GPK NBA Red Refractor | 1:196931 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Anime NIL Red Refractor | 1:270780 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman GPK NIL Red Refractor | 1:270780 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Crystalized NIL Red Crystal Refractor | 1:270780 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Red Refractor | 1:433248 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 3:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Chrome | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Paper Prospect | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Chrome Prospect | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Young Kings | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Greatness Loading | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Rockstar Rookies | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Base Chrome Rookie Red RC Variation | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| ROY Favorites | 1:25 | 62% | 0.96 |
| Hobby Stars | 1:25 | 62% | 0.96 |
| Talent Tracker | 1:58 | 34% | 0.41 |
| Gen Next | 1:58 | 34% | 0.41 |
| Very Important Prospects | 1:58 | 34% | 0.41 |
| Bowman Verified | 1:58 | 34% | 0.41 |
| Timeless Touch Signatures | 1:72 | 29% | 0.33 |
| Base Purple Border | 1:188 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Base Pink Border | 1:214 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Base Blue Border Base Blue Pattern Border (cancelled) | 1:250 | 9.2% | 0.10 |
| Paper Prospect Purple Border | 1:376 | 6.2% | 0.06 |
| Paper Prospect Pink Border | 1:428 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Base Orange Border | 1:449 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Base Yellow Border | 1:499 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Paper Prospect Blue Border Paper Prospect Blue Pattern Border (Cancelled) | 1:499 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Base Gold Border | 1:748 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Paper Prospect Orange Border | 1:899 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Paper Prospect Yellow Border | 1:998 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Base Black Border | 1:1123 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Base Black Pattern Border | 1:1123 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Crystalized NBA | 1:1346 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Paper Prospect Gold Border | 1:1497 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Talent Tracker Fuchsia Refrator | 1:1504 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Gen Next Fuchsia Refrator | 1:1504 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Very Important Prospects Fuchsia Refrator | 1:1504 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Bowman Verified Fuchsia Refrator | 1:1504 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Young Kings Fuchsia Refrator | 1:1504 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Greatness Loading Fuchsia Refrator | 1:1504 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Opening Statement Signatures | 1:1731 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Rockstar Rookies Fuchsia Refrator | 1:1879 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Future Script | 1:1889 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Paper Prospect Black Border | 1:2245 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Paper Prospect Black Pattern Border | 1:2245 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| ROY Favorites Fuchsia Refrator | 1:2508 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Hobby Stars Fuchsia Refrator | 1:2508 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Crystalized NIL | 1:2691 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Base Red Border | 1:7496 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Paper Prospect Red Border | 1:15044 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Chrome SuperFractor | 1:23046 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Base Platinum Border | 1:38005 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect SuperFractor | 1:46091 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Paper Prospect Platinum Border | 1:77366 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Anime NBA SuperFractor | 1:196931 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Future Script SuperFractor | 1:196931 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Opening Statement Signatures SuperFractor | 1:196931 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Timeless Touch Signatures SuperFractor | 1:196931 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Talent Tracker SuperFractor | 1:309463 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Gen Next SuperFractor | 1:309463 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Very Important Prospects SuperFractor | 1:309463 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Verified SuperFractor | 1:309463 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Young Kings SuperFractor | 1:309463 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Greatness Loading SuperFractor | 1:309463 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Spotlights NBA SuperFractor | 1:361040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Rockstar Rookies SuperFractor | 1:433248 | 0.0% | 0 |
| ROY Favorites SuperFractor | 1:541560 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hobby Stars SuperFractor | 1:541560 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Spotlights NIL SuperFractor | 1:722080 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Anime NIL SuperFractor | 1:722080 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman GPK NBA SuperFractor | 1:722080 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Crystalized NBA SuperFractor | 1:722080 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman GPK NIL SuperFractor | 1:1083120 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor SuperFractor | 1:2166240 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Crystalized NIL SuperFractor | 1:2166240 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Base Chrome Autograph | 1:68 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Refractor | 1:100 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Speckle Refractor | 1:168 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Refractor | 1:192 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Purple Refractor | 1:203 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Purple Refractor | 1:325 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Blue Refractor | 1:325 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Blue X-Fractor | 1:332 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Speckle Refractor | 1:342 | 6.8% | 0.07 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Blue Refractor | 1:416 | 5.6% | 0.06 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:476 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Blue X-Fractor | 1:621 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Yellow Refractor | 1:701 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:742 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Yellow Refractor | 1:853 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:876 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange Shimmer Refractor | 1:876 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Reptilian Orange Refractor | 1:877 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:913 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Orange Shimmer Refractor | 1:1032 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gold Shimmer Refractor | 1:1046 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:1048 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Reptilian Orange Refractor | 1:1097 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:1161 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Gold Shimmer Refractor | 1:1346 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs | 1:1417 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:4080 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black Refractor | 1:5171 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Black Refractor | 1:5246 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black X-Fractor | 1:5246 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Black X-Fractor | 1:5443 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:8144 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Red Refractor | 1:10267 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Red Lava Refractor | 1:10267 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Red Refractor | 1:10465 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph Red Lava Refractor | 1:10568 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs Black Refractor | 1:20246 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs Red Refractor | 1:40116 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Bowman Dual Autographs | 1:49233 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Autograph SuperFractor | 1:50378 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph SuperFractor | 1:50378 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:120347 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Buzz Factor Autographs SuperFractor | 1:196931 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:240694 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Dual Autographs SuperFractor | 1:433248 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Chrome Retrofractor Autograph Red Refractor | 1:722080 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Triple Autograph SuperFractor Base Chrome Retrofractor Autograph SuperFractor | 1:2166240 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Bowman Basketball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Bowman Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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