What are the odds of an autograph in 2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball?

The rarest autograph tier we list, the Base Autograph Variation SuperFractor, falls at 1:26934 packs in Standard. Autograph odds vary widely by parallel — set your pack count on this page and pick any autograph from the dropdown to see the live chance of at least one, plus how many packs it takes for a 50%, 90% or 95% shot. There are 5 autograph rows in Standard alone.

How rare is the Base Refractor in 2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball?

The Base Refractor lands at 1:10 packs (Standard) — about a 92% chance of at least one across 24 packs. Remember this is the odds of pulling the parallel at all; a specific player's Base Refractor is far longer odds.

2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball Odds Calculator — Autograph & Parallel Pull Rates (Standard)

Q: How does the 2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball odds calculator work?

Enter how many packs you're opening and pick the parallel, autograph or insert you're chasing. The tool uses Topps' official published per-pack odds (1:N) and treats each pack as an independent draw, computing the chance of at least one as 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs, the expected number, and — working backwards — how many packs you'd need for a 50%, 90% or 95% chance.

Q: Are these 2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball odds official?

Yes. Every rate here comes straight from Topps' official odds sheet for 2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball — 60 parallel/insert/autograph odds across 1 configuration. We don't estimate or sample; we present the manufacturer's stated odds and do the probability math on top.

Configurations

Odds Rows

Autographs

Base Parallels

2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball Pack Odds Calculator

Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.

How many packs are you opening?

packs

What are you chasing?

24 packs · Standard · Base Autograph Variation

11%

chance of at least one Base Autograph Variation across 24 packs

≈ 0.12 expectedbase 1 in 208≈ 144 packs for 50%

Packs to hit

Parallel	Per pack	≥1 in 24	Expected



Base Autograph Variation	1:208	11%	0.12
Base Autograph Variation Orange Refractor	1:1064	2.2%	0.02
Base Autograph Variation Black Refractor	1:2664	0.9%	0.01
Base Autograph Variation Red Refractor	1:5348	0.4%	0
Base Autograph Variation SuperFractor	1:26934	0.1%	0

These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.

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How the Odds Are Calculated

Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:

Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card, 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs.
Expected — the average number across your packs, packs / N.
Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards, ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).

Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.

Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.