2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Refractor | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Base Teal Speckle Refractor | 1:26 | 61% | 0.92 |
| Base Pink Refractor | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Base Blue Refractor | 1:51 | 38% | 0.47 |
| Base Green Refractor | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Utopia Highlights Blue Refractor | 1:126 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Jacked Up Blue Refractor | 1:126 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Base Gold Refractor | 1:151 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Cactus Jack Refractor | 1:184 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Utopia Highlights Green Refractor | 1:191 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Jacked Up Green Refractor | 1:191 | 12% | 0.13 |
| LA Flame Legends Blue Refractor | 1:252 | 9.1% | 0.10 |
| Base Orange Refractor | 1:302 | 7.7% | 0.08 |
| Utopia Highlights Gold Refractor | 1:377 | 6.2% | 0.06 |
| Jacked Up Gold Refractor | 1:377 | 6.2% | 0.06 |
| LA Flame Legends Green Refractor | 1:381 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Base Black Refractor | 1:754 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| LA Flame Legends Gold Refractor | 1:754 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Utopia Highlights Orange Refractor | 1:754 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Jacked Up Orange Refractor | 1:754 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Cactus Ink Orange Refractor | 1:1064 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Base Red Refractor | 1:1509 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Red Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:1509 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| LA Flame Legends Orange Refractor | 1:1509 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Utopia Highlights Black Refractor | 1:1884 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Jacked Up Black Refractor | 1:1884 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Cactus Ink Black Refractor | 1:2664 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| LA Flame Legends Black Refractor | 1:3768 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Utopia Highlights Red Refractor | 1:3768 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Jacked Up Red Refractor | 1:3768 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Cactus Ink Red Refractor | 1:5348 | 0.4% | 0 |
| LA Flame Legends Red Refractor | 1:7575 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 4:1 | 100% | — |
| Base White | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Utopia Highlights | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Jacked Up | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| LA Flame Legends | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Base LogoFractor | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Base Aqua Shimmer | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Base Lasers | 1:44 | 42% | 0.55 |
| Base Sonar | 1:61 | 33% | 0.39 |
| Base Purple Mini-Diamond | 1:101 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Cactus Ink | 1:208 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Utopia Highlights Purple Mini-Diamond | 1:252 | 9.1% | 0.10 |
| Jacked Up Purple Mini-Diamond | 1:252 | 9.1% | 0.10 |
| Astrovision | 1:305 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| LA Flame Legends Purple Mini-Diamond | 1:503 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Cactus Mode | 1:1200 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Base SuperFractor | 1:7575 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Utopia Highlights SuperFractor | 1:19137 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Jacked Up SuperFractor | 1:19137 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cactus Ink SuperFractor | 1:26934 | 0.1% | 0 |
| LA Flame Legends SuperFractor | 1:38274 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Astrovision SuperFractor | 1:42777 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cactus Mode SuperFractor | 1:42777 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Base Autograph Variation | 1:208 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Base Autograph Variation Orange Refractor | 1:1064 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Base Autograph Variation Black Refractor | 1:2664 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Base Autograph Variation Red Refractor | 1:5348 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Autograph Variation SuperFractor | 1:26934 | 0.1% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Chrome Cactus Jack Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.