2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball Sapphire Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Sapphire | 3:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Sapphire Gold | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Sapphire Selections ***X4 up*** | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Base Sapphire Orange | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Base Sapphire Purple | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Base Sapphire Black | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Base Sapphire Red | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| SKY-Write Signatures Sapphire Gold | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Sapphire Selections Gold ***X4 up*** | 1:84 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Next Stop Signatures Sapphire Gold | 1:90 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Signature Style Sapphire Orange | 1:135 | 16% | 0.18 |
| SKY-Write Signatures Sapphire Orange | 1:154 | 14% | 0.16 |
| Sapphire Selections Orange ***X4 up*** | 1:167 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Next Stop Signatures Sapphire Orange | 1:180 | 13% | 0.13 |
| Signature Style Sapphire Gold | 1:213 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Base Refractors Padpardascha | 1:278 | 8.3% | 0.09 |
| Signature Style Sapphire Black | 1:337 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| SKY-Write Signatures Sapphire Black | 1:385 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Next Stop Signatures Sapphire Black | 1:449 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Signature Style Sapphire Red | 1:674 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| SKY-Write Signatures Sapphire Red | 1:770 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Sapphire Selections Red ***X4 up*** | 1:833 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Next Stop Signatures Sapphire Red | 1:898 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Signature Style Sapphire Padpardascha | 1:3367 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| SKY-Write Signatures Sapphire Padpardascha | 1:3848 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Sapphire Selections Superfractors ***X4 up*** | 1:4040 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Next Stop Signatures Sapphire Padpardascha | 1:4489 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Inserts | |||
| Infinity | 1:160 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Autographs | |||
| Topps Chrome Autographs Rookies Sapphire Gold | 1:68 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Topps Certified Autograph Issue Rookies Sapphire Gold | 1:90 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Gold | 1:108 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Rookies Sapphire Orange | 1:135 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Topps Certified Autograph Issue Rookies Sapphire Orange | 1:180 | 13% | 0.13 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Orange | 1:216 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Rookies Sapphire Black | 1:337 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Topps Certified Autograph Issue Rookies Sapphire Black | 1:449 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Black | 1:539 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Rookies Sapphire Red | 1:674 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Topps Certified Autograph Issue Rookies Sapphire Red | 1:898 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Red | 1:1078 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Rookies Sapphire Padpardascha | 1:3367 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Topps Certified Autograph Issue Rookies Sapphire Padpardascha | 1:4489 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Padpardascha | 1:5387 | 0.4% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball Sapphire (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Chrome Basketball Sapphire. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.