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Configurations
12
Odds Rows
1,896
Autographs
46
Base Parallels
130
2025-26 Topps Chrome Updates Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Topps Chrome Autographs
16%
chance of at least one Topps Chrome Autographs across 24 packs
≈ 0.17 expectedbase 1 in 141≈ 98 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Refractors | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Base Refractors Prism | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Base Refractors Wave | 1:13 | 85% | 1.85 |
| Base Refractors Negative | 1:45 | 42% | 0.53 |
| Base Refractors Magenta | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Base Refractors Aqua Wave | 1:79 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Base Refractors Teal | 1:101 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Base Refractors Blue Wave | 1:104 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Base Refractors Yellow | 1:110 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Base Refractors Yellow Wave | 1:129 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Clutch Gene Refractors | 1:130 | 17% | 0.18 |
| Base Card Image Variation | 1:150 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Refractors Aqua | 1:152 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Power Players Refractors | 1:156 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Stratospheric Stars Refractors | 1:156 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Moment in Time Refractors | 1:156 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Base Refractors Green Wave | 1:158 | 14% | 0.15 |
| New Edition Refractors | 1:195 | 12% | 0.12 |
| Activators Refractors | 1:195 | 12% | 0.12 |
| Base Refractors Blue | 1:202 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Base Refractors Purple Wave | 1:208 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Clutch City Refractors | 1:260 | 8.8% | 0.09 |
| Fortune 15 Refractors | 1:260 | 8.8% | 0.09 |
| Go Time Refractors | 1:260 | 8.8% | 0.09 |
| Havoc Marks Refractors | 1:292 | 7.9% | 0.08 |
| Base Refractors Green | 1:306 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| Base Refractors Gold Wave | 1:312 | 7.4% | 0.08 |
| Havoc Marks Refractors Blue | 1:355 | 6.5% | 0.07 |
| No Limit Refractors | 1:389 | 6.0% | 0.06 |
| Base Refractors Purple | 1:403 | 5.8% | 0.06 |
| Havoc Marks Refractors Green | 1:480 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Havoc Marks Refractors Purple | 1:511 | 4.6% | 0.05 |
| Base Refractors Gold | 1:604 | 3.9% | 0.04 |
| Base Refractors Orange Wave | 1:623 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Havoc Marks Refractors Gold | 1:733 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Base Refractors Orange | 1:1,209 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Clutch Gene Refractors Aqua | 1:1,254 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Havoc Marks Refractors Orange | 1:1,459 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Power Players Refractors Aqua | 1:1,504 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Stratospheric Stars Refractors Aqua | 1:1,504 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Moment in Time Refractors Aqua | 1:1,504 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Card Image Variation Refractors Green Speckle | 1:1,513 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Refractors Black Wave | 1:1,559 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Clutch Gene Refractors Blue | 1:1,663 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| New Edition Refractors Aqua | 1:1,881 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Activators Refractors Aqua | 1:1,881 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Power Players Refractors Blue | 1:1,995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Stratospheric Stars Refractors Blue | 1:1,995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Moment in Time Refractors Blue | 1:1,995 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| New Edition Refractors Blue | 1:2,495 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Activators Refractors Blue | 1:2,495 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Clutch City Refractors Aqua | 1:2,508 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Fortune 15 Refractors Aqua | 1:2,508 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Go Time Refractors Aqua | 1:2,508 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Clutch Gene Refractors Green | 1:2,521 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Base Card Image Variation Refractors Gold Speckle | 1:2,994 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Base Refractors Black | 1:3,022 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Power Players Refractors Green | 1:3,027 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Stratospheric Stars Refractors Green | 1:3,027 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Moment in Time Refractors Green | 1:3,027 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Base Refractors Red Wave | 1:3,119 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Havoc Marks Refractors Black | 1:3,145 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Clutch City Refractors Blue | 1:3,328 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Fortune 15 Refractors Blue | 1:3,328 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Clutch Gene Refractors Purple | 1:3,328 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Go Time Refractors Blue | 1:3,328 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| New Edition Refractors Green | 1:3,781 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Activators Refractors Green | 1:3,781 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Power Players Refractors Purple | 1:3,999 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Stratospheric Stars Refractors Purple | 1:3,999 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Moment in Time Refractors Purple | 1:3,999 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| New Edition Refractors Purple | 1:4,995 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Activators Refractors Purple | 1:4,995 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Clutch Gene Refractors Gold | 1:4,995 | 0.5% | 0 |
| No Limit Refractors Blue | 1:4,995 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Clutch City Refractors Green | 1:5,047 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Fortune 15 Refractors Green | 1:5,047 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Go Time Refractors Green | 1:5,047 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Power Players Refractors Gold | 1:5,998 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Stratospheric Stars Refractors Gold | 1:5,998 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Moment in Time Refractors Gold | 1:5,998 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Card Image Variation Refractors Orange Speckle | 1:5,998 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Refractors Red | 1:6,054 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Refractors Denim Tears | 1:6,054 | 0.4% | 0 |
| No Limit Refractors Aqua | 1:6,632 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Clutch City Refractors Purple | 1:6,655 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Fortune 15 Refractors Purple | 1:6,655 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Go Time Refractors Purple | 1:6,655 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Havoc Marks Refractors Red | 1:7,333 | 0.3% | 0 |
| New Edition Refractors Gold | 1:7,503 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Activators Refractors Gold | 1:7,503 | 0.3% | 0 |
| No Limit Refractors Green | 1:7,561 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Clutch City Refractors Gold | 1:10,016 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Fortune 15 Refractors Gold | 1:10,016 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Clutch Gene Refractors Orange | 1:10,016 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Go Time Refractors Gold | 1:10,016 | 0.2% | 0 |
| No Limit Refractors Purple | 1:10,016 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Power Players Refractors Orange | 1:11,995 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Stratospheric Stars Refractors Orange | 1:11,995 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Moment in Time Refractors Orange | 1:11,995 | 0.2% | 0 |
| New Edition Refractors Orange | 1:15,063 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Activators Refractors Orange | 1:15,063 | 0.2% | 0 |
| No Limit Refractors Gold | 1:15,063 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Card Image Variation Refractors Black Speckle | 1:15,063 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Clutch City Refractors Orange | 1:20,032 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Fortune 15 Refractors Orange | 1:20,032 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Go Time Refractors Orange | 1:20,032 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Fortune 15 Refractors Black | 1:30,361 | 0.1% | 0 |
| No Limit Refractors Orange | 1:30,361 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Base Card Image Variation Refractors Red Speckle | 1:30,361 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Activators Refractors Red | 1:32,385 | 0.1% | 0 |
| No Limit Refractors Black | 1:35,328 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Stratospheric Stars Refractors Black | 1:38,099 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Moment in Time Refractors Black | 1:38,099 | 0.1% | 0 |
| New Edition Refractors Red | 1:38,861 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Clutch City Refractors Black | 1:51,133 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Power Players Refractors Red | 1:51,133 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Go Time Refractors Black | 1:51,133 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Moment in Time Refractors Red | 1:51,133 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Clutch City Refractors Red | 1:60,721 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Stratospheric Stars Refractors Red | 1:60,721 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Power Players Refractors Black | 1:77,722 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Clutch Gene Refractors Black | 1:77,722 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Clutch Gene Refractors Red | 1:77,722 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Fortune 15 Refractors Red | 1:102,266 | 0.0% | 0 |
| New Edition Refractors Black | 1:102,266 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Activators Refractors Black | 1:102,266 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Go Time Refractors Red | 1:129,537 | 0.0% | 0 |
| No Limit Refractors Red | 1:161,920 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Card Image Variation Superfractors | 1:161,920 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Clutch Gene | 1:13 | 85% | 1.85 |
| Power Players | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Stratospheric Stars | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Moment in Time | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| New Edition | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Activators | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Clutch City | 1:26 | 61% | 0.92 |
| Fortune 15 | 1:26 | 61% | 0.92 |
| Go Time | 1:26 | 61% | 0.92 |
| No Limit | 1:39 | 46% | 0.62 |
| Havoc Marks | 1:280 | 8.2% | 0.09 |
| Captains | 1:409 | 5.7% | 0.06 |
| Radiating Rookies | 1:545 | 4.3% | 0.04 |
| Shadow Etch | 1:545 | 4.3% | 0.04 |
| Celebracion | 1:570 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Helix | 1:3,744 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Base Frozenfractors | 1:6,054 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Alter Ego | 1:6818 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Minionfractor | 1:12,456 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Superfractors | 1:30,361 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Havoc Marks Superfractors | 1:36,662 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Captains Superfractors | 1:149,465 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Celebracion Superfractors | 1:194,304 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Radiating Rookies Superfractors | 1:194,304 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Shadow Etch Superfractors | 1:194,304 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Minionfractor Red | 1:253,001 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Clutch Gene Superfractors | 1:277,578 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Helix Superfractors | 1:277,578 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Power Players Superfractors | 1:323,840 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Stratospheric Stars Superfractors | 1:323,840 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Moment in Time Superfractors | 1:323,840 | 0.0% | 0 |
| New Edition Superfractors | 1:388,608 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Activators Superfractors | 1:388,608 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Clutch City Superfractors | 1:647,680 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Fortune 15 Superfractors | 1:647,680 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Go Time Superfractors | 1:647,680 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alter Ego Superfractors | 1:647,680 | 0.0% | 0 |
| No Limit Superfractors | 1:971,521 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Minionfractor Superfractors | 1:1,214,400 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Topps Chrome Autographs | 1:141 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Rookie Autographs Lava Lamp Magenta/Purple | 1:295 | 7.8% | 0.08 |
| Rookie Autographs Lava Lamp Aqua/Blue | 1:387 | 6.0% | 0.06 |
| Future Stars Autographs | 1:622 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Refractors Blue | 1:707 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Rookie Autographs Lava Lamp Blue/Green | 1:711 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Refractors | 1:716 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Rookie Autographs Lava Lamp Green/Yellow | 1:796 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Future Stars Autographs Refractors Blue | 1:796 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Refractors Green | 1:936 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Future Stars Autographs Refractors Green | 1:1,180 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Refractors Green | 1:1,197 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Refractors Gold | 1:1,215 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Future Stars Autographs Refractors | 1:1,254 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Refractors Purple | 1:1,296 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Future Stars Autographs Refractors Purple | 1:1,374 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs | 1:1,455 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Refractors | 1:1,467 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Future Stars Autographs Refractors Gold | 1:1,467 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Refractors Orange | 1:1,500 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Refractors Purple | 1:1,967 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Refractors Blue | 1:1,991 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Rookie Autographs Lava Lamp Gold/Orange | 1:2,133 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Refractors Gold | 1:2,745 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Refractors Orange | 1:2,936 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Future Stars Autographs Refractors Orange | 1:2,936 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Rookie Autographs Lava Lamp Orange/Black | 1:4,870 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Refractors Black | 1:4,970 | 0.5% | 0 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Refractors Black | 1:7,333 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Refractors Black | 1:7,333 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Refractors Red | 1:8,832 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Rookie Autographs Lava Lamp Black/Red | 1:11,498 | 0.2% | 0 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Refractors Red | 1:14,720 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Refractors Red | 1:14,720 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Superfractors | 1:51,133 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Superfractors | 1:74,733 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Superfractors | 1:74,733 | 0.0% | 0 |
| NBA Debut Patch Autographs | 1:74733 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Druski Refractors Gold | 1:80,960 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Druski Refractors Orange | 1:138,789 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Spike Lee Refractors Orange | 1:138,789 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Druski Refractors Black | 1:388,608 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Spike Lee Refractors Black | 1:388,608 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Druski Refractors Red | 1:647,680 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Spike Lee Refractors Red | 1:647,680 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Druski Superfractors | 1:1,943,041 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Chrome Updates Basketball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Browse every Topps odds calculator
Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Chrome Updates Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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