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Configurations
1
Odds Rows
126
Autographs
17
Base Parallels
80
2025-26 Topps Cosmic Chrome Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Standard · Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Refractor
6.1%
chance of at least one Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Refractor across 24 packs
≈ 0.06 expectedbase 1 in 383≈ 266 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Standard
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Refractor | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Base Nucleus Refractor | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Galaxy Greats Refractor | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Base Aqua Equinox Refractor | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Refractor | 1:50 | 38% | 0.48 |
| Propulsion Refractor | 1:50 | 38% | 0.48 |
| Base Purple Nebula Refractor | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| Space Walk Refractor | 1:83 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Base Blue Moon Refractor | 1:85 | 25% | 0.28 |
| Base Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:111 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Base White Hole Refractor | 1:126 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Base Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:167 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Galaxy Greats Aqua Equinox Refractor | 1:239 | 9.6% | 0.10 |
| Galaxy Greats Purple Nebula Refractor | 1:317 | 7.3% | 0.08 |
| Singularity Signatures Refractor | 1:331 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Base Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:333 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Aqua Equinox Refractor | 1:335 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Propulsion Aqua Equinox Refractor | 1:335 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Purple Nebula Refractor | 1:444 | 5.3% | 0.05 |
| Propulsion Purple Nebula Refractor | 1:444 | 5.3% | 0.05 |
| Galaxy Greats Blue Moon Refractor | 1:480 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Space Walk Aqua Equinox Refractor | 1:558 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Galaxy Greats Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:634 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Base FDI 1 Refractor | 1:662 | 3.6% | 0.04 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Blue Moon Refractor | 1:673 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Propulsion Blue Moon Refractor | 1:673 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| First Flight Signatures Refractor | 1:678 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Space Walk Purple Nebula Refractor | 1:740 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Base Lunar Refractor | 1:764 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Singularity Signatures Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:798 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Electro-Static Signatures Refractor | 1:805 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Base Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:832 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:888 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Propulsion Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:888 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Galaxy Greats Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:951 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Space Walk Blue Moon Refractor | 1:1120 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:1331 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Propulsion Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:1331 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| StarFractor Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1331 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Singularity Signatures Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1356 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Space Walk Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:1478 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Red Flare Refractor | 1:1664 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Re-Entry Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1664 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Electro-Static Signatures Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:1685 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| First Flight Signatures Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:1689 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Galaxy Greats Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1901 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| First Flight Signatures Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:2204 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Space Walk Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:2216 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Geocentric Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:2216 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| First Light Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:2216 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:2662 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Propulsion Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:2662 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Electro-Static Signatures Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:2684 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| StarFractor Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:3324 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Singularity Signatures Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:3395 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Re-Entry Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4160 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Space Walk Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:4426 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Galaxy Greats Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4743 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Electro-Static Signatures Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:5296 | 0.5% | 0 |
| First Flight Signatures Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:5479 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Geocentric Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:5536 | 0.4% | 0 |
| First Light Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:5536 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:6648 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Propulsion Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:6648 | 0.4% | 0 |
| StarFractor Red Flare Refractor | 1:6648 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Singularity Signatures Red Flare Refractor | 1:6849 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Re-Entry Red Flare Refractor | 1:8319 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Galaxy Greats Red Flare Refractor | 1:9458 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Electro-Static Signatures Red Flare Refractor | 1:10664 | 0.2% | 0 |
| First Flight Signatures Red Flare Refractor | 1:10958 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Space Walk Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:11034 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Geocentric Red Flare Refractor | 1:11034 | 0.2% | 0 |
| First Light Red Flare Refractor | 1:11034 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Red Flare Refractor | 1:13240 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Propulsion Red Flare Refractor | 1:13240 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Space Walk Red Flare Refractor | 1:22067 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Starfractor Pink Refractor | 1:33100 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Re-Entry Pink Refractor | 1:40739 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Geocentric Pink Refractor | 1:54787 | 0.0% | 0 |
| First Light Pink Refractor | 1:54787 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 3:1 | 100% | — |
| Galaxy Greats | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Propulsion | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Space Walk | 1:13 | 85% | 1.85 |
| Planetary Pursuit Sun | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| HyperNova | 1:201 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Planetary Pursuit Mercury | 1:328 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| StarFractor | 1:609 | 3.9% | 0.04 |
| Planetary Pursuit Venus | 1:640 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Cosmic Dust | 1:793 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Re-Entry | 1:871 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Geocentric | 1:1109 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| First Light | 1:1109 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Planetary Pursuit Earth | 1:1281 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Planetary Pursuit Mars | 1:2400 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Planetary Pursuit Jupiter | 1:4800 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Planetary Pursuit Saturn | 1:7984 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Base SuperFractor | 1:8319 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Planetary Pursuit Uranus | 1:16049 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Planetary Pursuit Neptune | 1:23027 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Planetary Pursuit Pluto | 1:29423 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Singularity Signatures SuperFractor | 1:34540 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Galaxy Greats SuperFractor | 1:46730 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Electro-Static Signatures SuperFractor | 1:52960 | 0.0% | 0 |
| First Flight Signatures SuperFractor | 1:54787 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent SuperFractor | 1:66200 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Propulsion SuperFractor | 1:66200 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Space Walk SuperFractor | 1:105920 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Refractor | 1:383 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:915 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Alien Autographs Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:1143 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Alien Autographs Refractor | 1:1235 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1360 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Alien Autographs Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:2113 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:3290 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Alien Autographs Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4981 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Red Flare Refractor | 1:6566 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Alien Autographs Red Flare Refractor | 1:9993 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II Refractor | 1:31776 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:31776 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation SuperFractor | 1:32425 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Alien Autographs SuperFractor | 1:51252 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:79440 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II Red Flare Refractor | 1:158880 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II SuperFractor | 1:794400 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Cosmic Chrome Basketball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Cosmic Chrome Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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