An interactive 2025-26 Topps Cosmic Chrome Basketball pack odds calculator built on Topps' official published odds. Enter how many packs you're opening — pick any refractor, parallel, autograph or insert — and get your live chance of at least one, the expected count, and how many packs it takes for a 50/90/95% shot.
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Standard · Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Refractor
6.1%
chance of at least one Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Refractor across 24 packs
Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Black Eclipse Refractor
1:3290
0.7%
0.01
Alien Autographs Black Eclipse Refractor
1:4981
0.5%
0
Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Red Flare Refractor
1:6566
0.4%
0
Alien Autographs Red Flare Refractor
1:9993
0.2%
0
Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II Refractor
1:31776
0.1%
0
Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II Orange Galactic Refractor
1:31776
0.1%
0
Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation SuperFractor
1:32425
0.1%
0
Alien Autographs SuperFractor
1:51252
0.0%
0
Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II Black Eclipse Refractor
1:79440
0.0%
0
Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II Red Flare Refractor
1:158880
0.0%
0
Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation II SuperFractor
1:794400
0.0%
0
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Cosmic Chrome Basketball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card, 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs.
Expected — the average number across your packs, packs / N.
Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards, ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Cosmic Chrome Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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