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Configurations
5
Odds Rows
453
Autographs
0
Base Parallels
0
2025-26 Topps Hoops Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby Odds · Base Rainbow
100%
chance of at least one Base Rainbow across 24 packs
≈ 8 expectedbase 1 in 3≈ 2 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby Odds
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 7:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Rainbow | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Base Pixel Burst | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Bounce House | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Next Episode | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Pay Attention | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Hoopers | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Dunk-umentory | 1:25 | 62% | 0.96 |
| Finals Pursuit First Round | 1:27 | 60% | 0.89 |
| Base Rainbow Green and Blue | 1:35 | 50% | 0.69 |
| Base Rainbow Gold and Green | 1:44 | 42% | 0.55 |
| Hoops Signs | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Base Pixel Burst Blue | 1:59 | 34% | 0.41 |
| Hoops Rookie Signatures | 1:74 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Bounce House Rainbow | 1:84 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Base Rainbow Yellow | 1:86 | 24% | 0.28 |
| Base Pixel Burst Purple | 1:88 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Next Episode Rainbow | 1:105 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Pay Attention Rainbow | 1:105 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Hoopers Rainbow | 1:105 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Base Pixel Burst Green | 1:117 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Hoops 1989 Signatures | 1:130 | 17% | 0.18 |
| Dunk-umentory Rainbow | 1:140 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Bounce House Pixel Burst | 1:168 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Base Pixel Burst Gold | 1:175 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Next Episode Pixel Burst | 1:210 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Pay Attention Pixel Burst | 1:210 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Hoopers Pixel Burst | 1:210 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Dunk-umentory Pixel Burst | 1:280 | 8.2% | 0.09 |
| Hoopnotic | 1:346 | 6.7% | 0.07 |
| Base Pixel Burst Orange | 1:348 | 6.7% | 0.07 |
| Finals Pursuit Second Round | 1:396 | 5.9% | 0.06 |
| Checkmate | 1:403 | 5.8% | 0.06 |
| Oasis | 1:489 | 4.8% | 0.05 |
| Hoops Signs Pixel Burst Purple | 1:525 | 4.5% | 0.05 |
| Hoops Rookie Signatures Pixel Burst Purple | 1:630 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Hoops Signs Pixel Burst Green | 1:679 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Hoops Rookie Signatures Pixel Burst Green | 1:831 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Base Pixel Burst Black | 1:870 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Hoops Signs Pixel Burst Gold | 1:1018 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Bounce House Pixel Burst Purple | 1:1055 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Finals Pursuit Semifinals Round | 1:1087 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Joy | 1:1154 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Hoops Rookie Signatures Pixel Burst Gold | 1:1247 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Finals Pursuit NBA Champions Players | 1:1317 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Next Episode Pixel Burst Purple | 1:1319 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Pay Attention Pixel Burst Purple | 1:1319 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Hoopers Pixel Burst Purple | 1:1319 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Bounce House Pixel Burst Green | 1:1392 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Base Pixel Burst Red | 1:1735 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Next Episode Pixel Burst Green | 1:1740 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Pay Attention Pixel Burst Green | 1:1740 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Hoopers Pixel Burst Green | 1:1740 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Dunk-umentory Pixel Burst Purple | 1:1757 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Hoops Signs Pixel Burst Orange | 1:1847 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Hoops Rookies Duals | 1:1994 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Bounce House Pixel Burst Gold | 1:2086 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Dunk-umentory Pixel Burst Green | 1:2321 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Hoops Rookie Signatures Pixel Burst Orange | 1:2491 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Next Episode Pixel Burst Gold | 1:2610 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Pay Attention Pixel Burst Gold | 1:2610 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Hoopers Pixel Burst Gold | 1:2610 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Dunk-umentory Pixel Burst Gold | 1:3475 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Hoops 1989 Signatures Pixel Burst Black | 1:4151 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Bounce House Pixel Burst Orange | 1:4165 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Finals Pursuit The Finals | 1:4337 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Hoops Signs Pixel Burst Black | 1:4607 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Next Episode Pixel Burst Orange | 1:5219 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Pay Attention Pixel Burst Orange | 1:5219 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Hoopers Pixel Burst Orange | 1:5219 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Signatures Pixel Burst Black | 1:6226 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Dunk-umentory Pixel Burst Orange | 1:6949 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Hoops 1989 Signatures Pixel Burst Red | 1:8274 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Base Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:8614 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Hoops Signs Pixel Burst Red | 1:9180 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Triples | 1:9903 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookies Duals Pixel Burst Black | 1:9903 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bounce House Pixel Burst Black | 1:10394 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Signatures Pixel Burst Red | 1:12452 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Next Episode Pixel Burst Black | 1:12965 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Pay Attention Pixel Burst Black | 1:12965 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Hoopers Pixel Burst Black | 1:12965 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Finals Pursuit NBA Champions Team | 1:13100 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Finals Pursuit Finals MVP | 1:13100 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Dunk-umentory Pixel Burst Black | 1:17228 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Veteran Duals | 1:19650 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookies Duals Pixel Burst Red | 1:19650 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Bounce House Pixel Burst Red | 1:20617 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Triples Pixel Burst Black | 1:24659 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Next Episode Pixel Burst Red | 1:25666 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Pay Attention Pixel Burst Red | 1:25666 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Hoopers Pixel Burst Red | 1:25666 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dunk-umentory Pixel Burst Red | 1:33990 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Hoops 1989 Signatures Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:40568 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Hoops Signs Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:44915 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Veteran Duals Pixel Burst Black | 1:48370 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Triples Pixel Burst Red | 1:48370 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Signatures Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:59886 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hoopnotic Platinum | 1:73977 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Checkmate Platinum | 1:83840 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bounce House Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:96739 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Oasis Platinum | 1:96739 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Veteran Duals Pixel Burst Red | 1:96739 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookies Duals Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:96739 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Next Episode Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:125760 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Pay Attention Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:125760 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hoopers Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:125760 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dunk-umentory Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:157200 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Joy Platinum | 1:251520 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Triples Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:251520 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hoops Rookie Veteran Duals Pixel Burst Platinum | 1:419200 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Hoops Basketball (Hobby Odds). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Hoops Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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