2025-26 Topps Inception Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Green | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Purple | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Base Pink | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Base Red | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Base Gold Electricity | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Launch | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Splashdown | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Base Blue | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Rise to Fame Signatures | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Endgame | 1:40 | 46% | 0.60 |
| Rise to Fame Signatures Gold Electricity | 1:44 | 42% | 0.55 |
| Base Camo | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Fountain of Youth Signatures | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Fountain of Youth Signatures Gold Electricity | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Inception Silver Signings Gold Electricity | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| Persistant Marks Gold Electricity | 1:58 | 34% | 0.41 |
| Inception Silver Signings | 1:73 | 28% | 0.33 |
| Fountain of Youth Signatures Blue | 1:81 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Persistant Marks | 1:87 | 24% | 0.28 |
| Rise to Fame Signatures Blue | 1:91 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Base Sky Blue | 1:107 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Persistant Marks Blue | 1:117 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Fountain of Youth Signatures Camo | 1:194 | 12% | 0.12 |
| Rise to Fame Signatures Camo | 1:218 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Persistant Marks Camo | 1:290 | 8.0% | 0.08 |
| Fountain of Youth Signatures Sky Blue | 1:388 | 6.0% | 0.06 |
| Rise to Fame Signatures Sky Blue | 1:435 | 5.4% | 0.06 |
| Base Inception | 1:534 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Persistant Marks Sky Blue | 1:584 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Fountain of Youth Signatures Inception | 1:1,984 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Rise to Fame Signatures Inception | 1:2,254 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Inception Silver Signings Gold Ink Inscription | 1:2,610 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Persistant Marks Inception | 1:2,917 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Autographs | |||
| Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Rookie Autographs Pink | 1:14 | 83% | 1.71 |
| Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs Pink | 1:14 | 83% | 1.71 |
| Rookie Autographs Red | 1:18 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs Red | 1:18 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Rookie Autographs Gold Electricity | 1:27 | 60% | 0.89 |
| Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs Gold Electricity | 1:27 | 60% | 0.89 |
| Rookie Autographs Horizontal Variations Pink | 1:30 | 56% | 0.80 |
| Rookie Autographs | 1:35 | 50% | 0.69 |
| Franchise Fundamental Relic Autographs Gold Electricity | 1:37 | 48% | 0.65 |
| Rookie Autographs Horizontal Variations Red | 1:39 | 46% | 0.62 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs | 1:53 | 37% | 0.45 |
| Rookie Autographs Blue | 1:53 | 37% | 0.45 |
| Franchise Fundamental Relic Autographs Red | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs Blue | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Rookie Autographs Horizontal Variations | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Rookie Autographs Horizontal Variations Gold Electricity | 1:59 | 34% | 0.41 |
| Franchise Fundamental Relic Autographs Pink | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Franchise Fundamental Relic Autographs Blue | 1:78 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs Blue | 1:105 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Rookie Relic Booklet Autographs Blue | 1:111 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Rookie Autographs Horizontal Variations Blue | 1:117 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Rookie Autographs Camo | 1:131 | 17% | 0.18 |
| Franchise Fundamental Relic Autographs | 1:131 | 17% | 0.18 |
| Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs Camo | 1:135 | 16% | 0.18 |
| NBA First Milestone Autograph Relic Redemption | 1:159 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Franchise Fundamental Relic Autographs Camo | 1:169 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Dual Rookie Relic Autographs Blue | 1:210 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs Camo | 1:261 | 8.8% | 0.09 |
| Rookie Relic Booklet Autographs Camo | 1:261 | 8.8% | 0.09 |
| Rookie Autographs Sky Blue | 1:269 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs Sky Blue | 1:269 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Rookie Autographs Horizontal Variations Camo | 1:290 | 8.0% | 0.08 |
| NBA First Milestone Autograph Relic Redemption Sky Blue | 1:318 | 7.3% | 0.08 |
| Franchise Fundamental Relic Autographs Sky Blue | 1:327 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs Sky Blue | 1:522 | 4.5% | 0.05 |
| Dual Rookie Relic Autographs Camo | 1:522 | 4.5% | 0.05 |
| Rookie Relic Booklet Autographs Sky | 1:522 | 4.5% | 0.05 |
| Rookie Autographs Horizontal Variations Sky Blue | 1:584 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Dual Rookie Relic Autographs Sky Blue | 1:1,055 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Rookie Autographs Inception | 1:1,305 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Rookie Jumbo Relic Autographs Inception | 1:1,341 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| NBA First Milestone Autograph Relic Redemption Inception | 1:1,600 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Franchise Fundamental Relic Autographs Inception | 1:1,653 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs Inception | 1:2,610 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Rookie Relic Booklet Autographs Inception | 1:2,610 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Rookie Autographs Horizontal Variations Inception | 1:2,917 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Dual Rookie Relic Autographs Inception | 1:5,510 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Relics & Memorabilia | |||
| NBA First Milestone Relic Redemption | 1:1,055 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| NBA First Milestone Relic Redemption Sky Blue | 1:2,156 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| NBA First Milestone Relic Redemption Inception | 1:12,396 | 0.2% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Inception Basketball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Inception Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.