2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Twilight | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Twilight | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Twilight | 1:14 | 83% | 1.71 |
| Dark Matter Autographs | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Dusk | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Dusk | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Summer Solstice | 1:27 | 60% | 0.89 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Summer Solstice | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Moon Beam | 1:34 | 51% | 0.71 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Dusk | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Winter Solstice | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Dusk | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Winter Solstice | 1:44 | 42% | 0.55 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Moonrise | 1:53 | 37% | 0.45 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Summer Solstice | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Moon Beam | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Summer Solstice | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Moonrise | 1:62 | 32% | 0.39 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Equinox | 1:66 | 31% | 0.36 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Moon Beam | 1:68 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Winter Solstice | 1:74 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Twilight | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Equinox | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Dusk | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Winter Solstice | 1:81 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Moonrise | 1:103 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Moonrise | 1:107 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Midnight | 1:109 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Summer Solstice | 1:120 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Midnight | 1:128 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Equinox | 1:128 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Equinox | 1:129 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Moon Beam | 1:143 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Winter Solstice | 1:154 | 14% | 0.16 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Midnight | 1:203 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Moon Beam | 1:210 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Midnight | 1:213 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Moonrise | 1:215 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Daybreak | 1:261 | 8.8% | 0.09 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Equinox | 1:268 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Daybreak | 1:309 | 7.5% | 0.08 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Witching Hour | 1:435 | 5.4% | 0.06 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Midnight | 1:450 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Daybreak | 1:486 | 4.8% | 0.05 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Daybreak | 1:509 | 4.6% | 0.05 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Witching Hour | 1:519 | 4.5% | 0.05 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Summer Solstice | 1:535 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Winter Solstice | 1:775 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Moon Beam | 1:775 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Witching Hour | 1:810 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Witching Hour | 1:849 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Daybreak | 1:1069 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Moonrise | 1:1069 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Black Light | 1:1304 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Equinox | 1:1371 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Black Light | 1:1527 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Witching Hour | 1:1782 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Midnight | 1:2227 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Black Light | 1:2430 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Black Light | 1:2545 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Black Light | 1:5345 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Daybreak | 1:5345 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Witching Hour | 1:8907 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Black Light | 1:26721 | 0.1% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.