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2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Standard · Stroke of Midnight Autographs
100%
chance of at least one Stroke of Midnight Autographs across 24 packs
≈ 6 expectedbase 1 in 4≈ 3 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Standard
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Zodiac | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| Base Morning | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Base Twilight | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Moonfall | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Base Dusk | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Night Owls | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Insomnia | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Dark Marks | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Daydreamers | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Base Summer Solstice | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Moonfall Morning | 1:13 | 85% | 1.85 |
| Midnight Oil Marks | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Night Owls Morning | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Insomnia Morning | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Base Winter Solstice | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Twilight | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Dusk | 1:18 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Base Moon Beam | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Daydreamers Morning | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Moonfall Twilight | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Twilight | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Base Moonrise | 1:23 | 66% | 1.04 |
| Dark Marks Rookies | 1:23 | 66% | 1.04 |
| Night Owls Twilight | 1:23 | 66% | 1.04 |
| Insomnia Twilight | 1:23 | 66% | 1.04 |
| Moonfall Dusk | 1:25 | 62% | 0.96 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Summer Solstice | 1:27 | 60% | 0.89 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures | 1:27 | 60% | 0.89 |
| Base Equinox | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Daydreamers Twilight | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Nightshade | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Dreamland | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Night Owls Dusk | 1:30 | 56% | 0.80 |
| Insomnia Dusk | 1:30 | 56% | 0.80 |
| Night Vision | 1:33 | 52% | 0.73 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Moon Beam | 1:34 | 51% | 0.71 |
| Daydreamers Dusk | 1:37 | 48% | 0.65 |
| Moonfall Summer Solstice | 1:37 | 48% | 0.65 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Dusk | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Winter Solstice | 1:39 | 46% | 0.62 |
| Dark Marks Dusk | 1:40 | 46% | 0.60 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Dusk | 1:45 | 42% | 0.53 |
| Night Owls Summer Solstice | 1:45 | 42% | 0.53 |
| Insomnia Summer Solstice | 1:45 | 42% | 0.53 |
| Base Midnight | 1:46 | 41% | 0.52 |
| Moonfall Winter Solstice | 1:53 | 37% | 0.45 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Moonrise | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Twilight | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Daydreamers Summer Solstice | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Summer Solstice | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Dark Marks Summer Solstice | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Summer Solstice | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Winter Solstice | 1:59 | 34% | 0.41 |
| Moonfall Moon Beam | 1:62 | 32% | 0.39 |
| Night Owls Winter Solstice | 1:63 | 32% | 0.38 |
| Insomnia Winter Solstice | 1:63 | 32% | 0.38 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Equinox | 1:68 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Equinox | 1:69 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Moon Beam | 1:71 | 29% | 0.34 |
| Dark Marks Winter Solstice | 1:73 | 28% | 0.33 |
| Night Owls Moon Beam | 1:74 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Insomnia Moon Beam | 1:74 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Moonfall Moonrise | 1:74 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Winter Solstice | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Moonrise | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Daydreamers Winter Solstice | 1:79 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Winter Solstice | 1:81 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Night Owls Moonrise | 1:89 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Insomnia Moonrise | 1:89 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Dark Marks Moonrise | 1:90 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Moon Beam | 1:90 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Moonrise | 1:90 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Daydreamers Moon Beam | 1:92 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Moonfall Equinox | 1:92 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Dark Marks Moon Beam | 1:99 | 22% | 0.24 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Moonrise | 1:107 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Base Daybreak | 1:111 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Night Owls Equinox | 1:111 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Daydreamers Moonrise | 1:111 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Insomnia Equinox | 1:111 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Midnight | 1:112 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Dark Marks Equinox | 1:112 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Equinox | 1:112 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Midnight | 1:115 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Dusk | 1:121 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Summer Solstice | 1:121 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Equinox | 1:134 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Daydreamers Equinox | 1:138 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Moonfall Midnight | 1:154 | 14% | 0.16 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Twilight | 1:158 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Winter Solstice | 1:170 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Dusk | 1:180 | 13% | 0.13 |
| Base Witching Hour | 1:184 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Night Owls Midnight | 1:184 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Insomnia Midnight | 1:184 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Dark Marks Midnight | 1:186 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Midnight | 1:186 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Moon Beam | 1:191 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Moonrise | 1:217 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Moon Beam | 1:223 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Midnight | 1:224 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Daydreamers Midnight | 1:229 | 10.0% | 0.10 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Daybreak | 1:268 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Summer Solstice | 1:268 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Equinox | 1:269 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Daybreak | 1:275 | 8.4% | 0.09 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Winter Solstice | 1:309 | 7.5% | 0.08 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Moon Beam | 1:357 | 6.5% | 0.07 |
| Moonfall Daybreak | 1:366 | 6.4% | 0.07 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Moonrise | 1:428 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Night Owls Daybreak | 1:439 | 5.3% | 0.05 |
| Insomnia Daybreak | 1:439 | 5.3% | 0.05 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Midnight | 1:446 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Dark Marks Daybreak | 1:446 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Daybreak | 1:446 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Witching Hour | 1:450 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Witching Hour | 1:457 | 5.1% | 0.05 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Daybreak | 1:535 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Equinox | 1:540 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Base Black Light | 1:549 | 4.3% | 0.04 |
| Daydreamers Daybreak | 1:549 | 4.3% | 0.04 |
| Moonfall Witching Hour | 1:613 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Night Owls Witching Hour | 1:732 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Insomnia Witching Hour | 1:732 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Dark Marks Witching Hour | 1:743 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Witching Hour | 1:743 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Witching Hour | 1:891 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Midnight | 1:891 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Daydreamers Witching Hour | 1:908 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Daybreak | 1:1069 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Rookie Horizon Signatures Black Light | 1:1337 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Black Light | 1:1371 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Witching Hour | 1:1782 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Moonfall Black Light | 1:1816 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Nightshade Black Light | 1:1816 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Dreamland Black Light | 1:1816 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Night Owls Black Light | 1:2194 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Insomnia Black Light | 1:2194 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Night Vision Black Light | 1:2194 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Daybreak | 1:2227 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Dark Marks Black Light | 1:2227 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Black Light | 1:2227 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Daydreamers Black Light | 1:2632 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Midnight Sun Signatures Rookies Black Light | 1:2673 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Witching Hour | 1:3818 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Dark Marks Rookies Black Light | 1:5345 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Midnight Oil Marks Rookies Black Light | 1:10689 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Twilight | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Twilight | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Twilight | 1:14 | 83% | 1.71 |
| Dark Matter Autographs | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Dusk | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Dusk | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Summer Solstice | 1:27 | 60% | 0.89 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Summer Solstice | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Moon Beam | 1:34 | 51% | 0.71 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Dusk | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Winter Solstice | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Dusk | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Winter Solstice | 1:44 | 42% | 0.55 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Moonrise | 1:53 | 37% | 0.45 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Summer Solstice | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Moon Beam | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Summer Solstice | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Moonrise | 1:62 | 32% | 0.39 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Equinox | 1:66 | 31% | 0.36 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Moon Beam | 1:68 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Winter Solstice | 1:74 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Twilight | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Equinox | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Dusk | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Winter Solstice | 1:81 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Moonrise | 1:103 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Moonrise | 1:107 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Midnight | 1:109 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Summer Solstice | 1:120 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Midnight | 1:128 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Equinox | 1:128 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Equinox | 1:129 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Moon Beam | 1:143 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Winter Solstice | 1:154 | 14% | 0.16 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Midnight | 1:203 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Moon Beam | 1:210 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Midnight | 1:213 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Moonrise | 1:215 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Daybreak | 1:261 | 8.8% | 0.09 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Equinox | 1:268 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Daybreak | 1:309 | 7.5% | 0.08 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Witching Hour | 1:435 | 5.4% | 0.06 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Midnight | 1:450 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Daybreak | 1:486 | 4.8% | 0.05 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Daybreak | 1:509 | 4.6% | 0.05 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Witching Hour | 1:519 | 4.5% | 0.05 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Summer Solstice | 1:535 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Winter Solstice | 1:775 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Moon Beam | 1:775 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Witching Hour | 1:810 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Witching Hour | 1:849 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Daybreak | 1:1069 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Moonrise | 1:1069 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Black Light | 1:1304 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Equinox | 1:1371 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Rookie Jersey Autographs Black Light | 1:1527 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Witching Hour | 1:1782 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Midnight | 1:2227 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Black Light | 1:2430 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs Rookies Black Light | 1:2545 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Dark Matter Autographs Rookies Black Light | 1:5345 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Daybreak | 1:5345 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Witching Hour | 1:8907 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Stroke of Midnight Autographs II Black Light | 1:26721 | 0.1% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025-26 Topps Midnight Basketball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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