2025 Marvel The Collector Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inserts | |||
| Marvel Tomorrow | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Villainy | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Show Stoppers | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Mcu Perfection Orange | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Mcu Perfection Purple | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Mcu Perfection Black | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Marvel Tomorrow Orange | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Villainy Orange | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Show Stoppers Orange | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Sketch Card Marvel Arthouse | 1:70 | 29% | 0.34 |
| Mcu Perfection Red | 1:83 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Marvel Tomorrow Purple | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Villainy Purple | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Show Stoppers Purple | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Treasures of Asgard | 1:138 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Marvel Tomorrow Black | 1:141 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Villainy Black | 1:141 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Show Stoppers Black | 1:141 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Treasures of Asgard Purple | 1:229 | 10.0% | 0.10 |
| Marvel Tomorrow Red | 1:279 | 8.3% | 0.09 |
| Villainy Red | 1:279 | 8.3% | 0.09 |
| Show Stoppers Red | 1:279 | 8.3% | 0.09 |
| Treasures of Asgard Black | 1:344 | 6.7% | 0.07 |
| Mcu Perfection Gold | 1:406 | 5.7% | 0.06 |
| Treasures of Asgard Red | 1:687 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Marvel Tomorrow Gold | 1:1,347 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Villainy Gold | 1:1,347 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Show Stoppers Gold | 1:1,347 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Sketch Card Miller Magnificence | 1:1,683 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Treasures of Asgard Gold | 1:3,366 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Purple | 1:5,610 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Blue | 1:6,732 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Red | 1:8,415 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Orange | 1:11,220 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Green | 1:16,830 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Yellow | 1:33,660 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Mcu Perfection Autograph Variation | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| The Collector's Museum Autograph | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Mcu Perfection Autograph Variation Orange | 1:35 | 50% | 0.69 |
| The Collector's Museum Autograph Orange | 1:46 | 41% | 0.52 |
| Mcu Perfection Autograph Variation Purple | 1:58 | 34% | 0.41 |
| The Collector's Museum Autograph Purple | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Mcu Perfection Autograph Variation Black | 1:87 | 24% | 0.28 |
| The Collector's Museum Autograph Black | 1:119 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Mcu Perfection Autograph Variation Red | 1:172 | 13% | 0.14 |
| The Collector's Museum Autograph Red | 1:229 | 10.0% | 0.10 |
| Dual Autographs | 1:274 | 8.4% | 0.09 |
| Dual Autographs Purple | 1:455 | 5.1% | 0.05 |
| Dual Autographs Black | 1:687 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Mcu Perfection Autograph Variation Gold | 1:842 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| The Collector's Museum Autograph Gold | 1:1,122 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Dual Autographs Red | 1:1,347 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Autograph Variation Purple | 1:5,610 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Dual Autographs Gold | 1:6,732 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Autograph Variation Blue | 1:6,732 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Autograph Variation Red | 1:8,415 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Autograph Variation Orange | 1:11,220 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Autograph Variation Green | 1:16,830 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Infinity Gauntlet Autograph Variation Yellow | 1:33,660 | 0.1% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Marvel The Collector (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Marvel The Collector. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.