2025 Star Wars Masterwork Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Cards | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Cards Blue | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Cards Green | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Base Cards Purple | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Base Cards Red | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Base Cards Orange | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| Base Cards Black | 1:113 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Base Cards Gold | 1:566 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Inserts | |||
| Under Disguise | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Fall of the Chosen One | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| Masterworks On Card | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| Galactic Die Cut Pods | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Yellow, Black Short Circuit | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Yellow, Black BB-8 | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Sketch Cards | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Under Disguise Rainbow Foil | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Short Circuit Rainbow Foil | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Fall of the Chosen One Rainbow Foil | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Galactic Die Cut Pods Rainbow Foil | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| BB-8 Rainbow Foil | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Under Disguise Canvas | 1:87 | 24% | 0.28 |
| Short Circuit Canvas | 1:87 | 24% | 0.28 |
| Fall of the Chosen One Canvas | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Galactic Die Cut Pods Canvas | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| BB-8 Colored Metal | 1:119 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Printing Plates Cyan, Magenta, | 1:141 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Under Disguise Wood | 1:217 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Short Circuit Wood | 1:217 | 10% | 0.11 |
| BB-8 Canvas | 1:225 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Fall of the Chosen One Wood | 1:234 | 9.8% | 0.10 |
| Galactic Die Cut Pods Wood | 1:234 | 9.8% | 0.10 |
| Under Disguise Metal | 1:433 | 5.4% | 0.06 |
| Short Circuit Metal | 1:433 | 5.4% | 0.06 |
| Fall of the Chosen One Metal | 1:471 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Printing Plates Cyan, Magenta, | 1:543 | 4.3% | 0.04 |
| Printing Plates Cyan, Magenta, | 1:543 | 4.3% | 0.04 |
| BB-8 Wood BB-8 Printing | 1:566 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| 10 Years of Masterworks Buybacks | 1:566 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Printing Plates Cyan, | 1:584 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Printing Plates Cyan, | 1:584 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Sketch Cards Book Cards | 1:640 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Sketch Cards Panoramic | 1:802 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Sketch Cards Triptych Cards | 1:867 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Plates Cyan, Magenta, | 1:1,378 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Under Disguise Gold Metal | 1:2,149 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Short Circuit Gold Metal | 1:2,149 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Fall of the Chosen One Gold Metal | 1:2,336 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Ultimate Book Card Autos Silver | 1:10,746 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Harrison Ford Buyback On Card Autos | 1:10,746 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Ultimate Book Card Autos Gold | 1:13,432 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Masterworks On Card Autographs | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Masterworks On Card Autographs | 1:25 | 62% | 0.96 |
| Masterworks On Card Autographs | 1:48 | 40% | 0.50 |
| Masterworks On Card Autographs | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Masterworks On Card Autographs | 1:121 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Autographs Printing Plates | 1:179 | 13% | 0.13 |
| Masterworks On Card Autographs | 1:611 | 3.9% | 0.04 |
| Pen Autograph Relic | 1:672 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Autograph Relic Cards Black | 1:1,033 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Yellow, Black Duo Autographs | 1:1,143 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Duo Autographs Wood | 1:1,414 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Duo Autographs Silver-Framed | 1:1,414 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Skeleton Crew Auto Relic | 1:1,414 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| ROTJ Film Cell Auto Relic | 1:1,791 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Trio Autographs | 1:2,239 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Quad Autographs | 1:2,239 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Autograph Relic Cards | 1:2,828 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Autograph Relic Cards Gold | 1:4,884 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Duo Autographs Gold-Framed | 1:5,373 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Trio Autographs Wood | 1:5,373 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Skeleton Crew Auto Relic Gold | 1:5570 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Trio Autographs Silver-Framed | 1:10,746 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Trio Autographs Gold-Framed | 1:10,746 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Quad Autographs Gold | 1:10,746 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Relics & Memorabilia | |||
| Relic Cards | 1:25 | 62% | 0.96 |
| Skeleton Crew Relic | 1:46 | 41% | 0.52 |
| Relic Cards Green | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Relic Cards Purple | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Skeleton Crew Relic Purple | 1:113 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Skeleton Crew Relic Black | 1:119 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Relic Cards Red | 1:188 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Skeleton Crew Relic Red | 1:225 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Relic Cards Orange | 1:471 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Skeleton Crew Relic Orange | 1:566 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| ROTJ Film Cell Relic | 1:618 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Relic Cards Black | 1:943 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Relic Cards Gold | 1:4,477 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Skeleton Crew Relic Gold | 1:5,373 | 0.4% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Star Wars Masterwork (Pack). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Star Wars Masterwork. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.