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Configurations
2
Odds Rows
135
Autographs
13
Base Parallels
58
2025 Topps Cosmic Chrome Football Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation
5.2%
chance of at least one Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation across 24 packs
≈ 0.05 expectedbase 1 in 446≈ 309 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Refractor | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Rookies Refractor | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Base Nucleus Refractor | 1:39 | 46% | 0.62 |
| Rookies Nucleus Refractor | 1:39 | 46% | 0.62 |
| Base Aqua Equinox Refractor | 1:61 | 33% | 0.39 |
| Rookies Aqua Equinox Refractor | 1:61 | 33% | 0.39 |
| Base Purple Nebula Refractor | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Rookies Purple Nebula Refractor | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Base Blue Moon Refractor | 1:122 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Rookies Blue Moon Refractor | 1:122 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Base White Hole Refractor | 1:154 | 14% | 0.16 |
| Rookies White Hole Refractor | 1:154 | 14% | 0.16 |
| Base Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:160 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Rookies Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:160 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Base Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:240 | 9.5% | 0.10 |
| Rookies Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:240 | 9.5% | 0.10 |
| Light Speed Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:453 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Starfractor Orange Refractor | 1:475 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Base Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:480 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Rookies Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:480 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:633 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Stars in the Night Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:633 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Light Speed Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:679 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:950 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Stars in the Night Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:950 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Star Clusters Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:1055 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Base Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:1187 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Rookies Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:1187 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Starfractor Black Refractor | 1:1187 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| First Flight Signatures Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:1289 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Light Speed Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1357 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Solar Flares Signatures Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:1368 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Star Clusters Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:1583 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| First Flight Signatures Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1855 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1899 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Stars in the Night Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1899 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Solar Flares Signatures Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1929 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Base Red Flare Refractor | 1:2374 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Rookies Red Flare Refractor | 1:2374 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Starfractor Red Refractor | 1:2374 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Star Clusters Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:3165 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Light Speed Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:3391 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Solar Flares Signatures Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4496 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| First Flight Signatures Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4641 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4747 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Stars in the Night Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4747 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Planetarium Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4747 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Supernova Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4747 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Light Speed Red Flare Refractor | 1:6781 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Star Clusters Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:7912 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Solar Flares Signatures Red Flare Refractor | 1:8957 | 0.3% | 0 |
| First Flight Signatures Red Flare Refractor | 1:9244 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent Red Flare Refractor | 1:9494 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Stars in the Night Red Flare Refractor | 1:9494 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Planetarium Red Flare Refractor | 1:9494 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Supernova Red Flare Refractor | 1:9494 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Starfractor Pink Refractor | 1:11867 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Star Clusters Red Flare Refractor | 1:15823 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 3:1 | 100% | — |
| Rookies | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Light Speed | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Stars in the Night | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Star Clusters | 1:14 | 83% | 1.71 |
| Planetary Pursuit Sun | 1:160 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Planetary Pursuit Mercury | 1:320 | 7.2% | 0.08 |
| Starfractor | 1:329 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Base Constellation Variation | 1:475 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Planetarium | 1:540 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Cos-Play | 1:554 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Supernova | 1:554 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Planetary Pursuit Venus | 1:640 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Light Years | 1:693 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Cosmic Dust | 1:693 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Solar Flares Signatures | 1:900 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| First Flight Signatures | 1:900 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Planetary Pursuit Earth | 1:960 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Planetary Pursuit Mars | 1:1600 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Planetary Pursuit Jupiter | 1:3200 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Planetary Pursuit Saturn | 1:6400 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Superfractor | 1:11867 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Rookies Superfractor | 1:11867 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Planetary Pursuit Uranus | 1:13280 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Planetary Pursuit Neptune | 1:23040 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Planetary Pursuit Pluto | 1:29440 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Light Speed SuperFractor | 1:33905 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Solar Flares Signatures SuperFractor | 1:44438 | 0.1% | 0 |
| First Flight Signatures SuperFractor | 1:46216 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Extraterrestrial Talent SuperFractor | 1:47467 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Stars in the Night SuperFractor | 1:47467 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Planetarium Superfractor | 1:47467 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Supernova Superfractor | 1:47967 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Star Clusters SuperFractor | 1:79112 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation | 1:446 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:475 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Green Space Dust Refractor | 1:618 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:692 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Equinox Autographs | 1:905 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Equinox Autographs Gold Interstellar Refractor | 1:965 | 2.5% | 0.02 |
| Equinox Autographs Orange Galactic Refractor | 1:1603 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:1707 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation Red Flare Refractor | 1:3419 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Equinox Autographs Black Eclipse Refractor | 1:4098 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Equinox Autographs Red Flare Refractor | 1:8253 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Cosmic Chrome Autograph Variation SuperFractor | 1:16745 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Equinox Autographs SuperFractor | 1:39841 | 0.1% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Topps Cosmic Chrome Football (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Topps Cosmic Chrome Football. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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