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Configurations
2
Odds Rows
369
Autographs
54
Base Parallels
91
2025 Topps Finest Football Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Rookie Finest Autographs
96%
chance of at least one Rookie Finest Autographs across 24 packs
≈ 3 expectedbase 1 in 8≈ 6 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Common Refractor | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Base Common Xfractor | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Base Uncommon Refractor | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Base Common Refractors Sky Blue | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Torchers Refractor | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Creators Refractor | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Base Common Refractors Purple | 1:14 | 83% | 1.71 |
| Base Uncommon Refractors Sky Blue | 1:14 | 83% | 1.71 |
| Reflash Refractor | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Base Common Refractors Blue | 1:18 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Base Uncommon Refractors Purple | 1:18 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Base Rare Refractor | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Torchers Xfractor | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Creators Xfractor | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Base Common Xfractor Purple | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Base Uncommon Xfractor | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Base Uncommon Refractors Blue | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Base Rare Refractor Sky Blue | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Base Rare Refractor Purple | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Team Finest Refractor | 1:32 | 53% | 0.75 |
| Power Kings Refractor | 1:32 | 53% | 0.75 |
| Reflash Xfractor | 1:32 | 53% | 0.75 |
| Base Common Xfractor Blue | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Base Uncommon Xfractor Purple | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Base Rare Refractor Blue | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Base Common Refractors Green | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Base Uncommon Xfractor Blue | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Base Rare Xfractor Purple | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Base Rare Xfractor | 1:48 | 40% | 0.50 |
| Team Finest Xfractor | 1:64 | 31% | 0.38 |
| Power Kings Xfractor | 1:64 | 31% | 0.38 |
| Base Common Refractors Gold | 1:70 | 29% | 0.34 |
| Base Rare Xfractor Blue | 1:72 | 29% | 0.33 |
| Base Uncommon Refractors Green | 1:100 | 21% | 0.24 |
| 92 Finest Refractor | 1:106 | 20% | 0.23 |
| Torchers Refractor Sky Blue | 1:128 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Creators Refractor Sky Blue | 1:128 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Base Common Refractors Orange | 1:140 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Base Uncommon Refractors Gold | 1:140 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Base Rare Refractor Green | 1:140 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Torchers Refractor Purple | 1:154 | 14% | 0.16 |
| Team Finest Refractor Purple | 1:154 | 14% | 0.16 |
| Base Common Refractors Black | 1:175 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Base Uncommon Refractors Orange | 1:175 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Base Rare Refractor Gold | 1:175 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Reflash Refractor Sky Blue | 1:192 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Torchers Refractor Blue | 1:194 | 12% | 0.12 |
| Team Finest Refractor Blue | 1:194 | 12% | 0.12 |
| Base Common Refractors Oil Spill | 1:211 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Reflash Refractor Purple | 1:230 | 9.9% | 0.10 |
| Base Uncommon Refractors Black | 1:233 | 9.8% | 0.10 |
| Base Rare Refractor Orange | 1:233 | 9.8% | 0.10 |
| Torchers Refractor Green | 1:256 | 9.0% | 0.09 |
| Team Finest Refractor Green | 1:256 | 9.0% | 0.09 |
| Reflash Refractor Blue | 1:291 | 7.9% | 0.08 |
| Base Uncommon Refractors Oil Spill | 1:316 | 7.3% | 0.08 |
| Base Common Refractor Red | 1:349 | 6.7% | 0.07 |
| Base Rare Refractor Black | 1:349 | 6.7% | 0.07 |
| Team Finest Refractor Sky Blue | 1:383 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Power Kings Refractor Sky Blue | 1:383 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Reflash Refractor Green | 1:383 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Torchers Refractor Gold | 1:383 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Team Finest Refractor Gold | 1:383 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Creators Refractor Purple | 1:460 | 5.1% | 0.05 |
| Power Kings Refractor Purple | 1:460 | 5.1% | 0.05 |
| Headliners Refractor | 1:568 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Reflash Refractor Gold | 1:575 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Creators Refractor Blue | 1:581 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Power Kings Refractor Blue | 1:581 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Base Rare Refractor Oil Spill | 1:632 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Base Uncommon Refractor Red | 1:698 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Creators Refractor Green | 1:767 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Power Kings Refractor Green | 1:767 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Torchers Refractor Orange | 1:767 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Team Finest Refractor Orange | 1:767 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Creators Refractor Gold | 1:1150 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Power Kings Refractor Gold | 1:1150 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Reflash Refractor Orange | 1:1150 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Base Rare Refractor Red | 1:1163 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Torchers Refractor Black | 1:1918 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Team Finest Refractor Black | 1:1918 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Creators Refractor Orange | 1:2309 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Power Kings Refractor Orange | 1:2309 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Reflash Refractor Black | 1:2872 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Torchers Refractor Red | 1:3848 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Team Finest Refractor Red | 1:3848 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Creators Refractor Black | 1:5772 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Power Kings Refractor Black | 1:5772 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Reflash Refractor Red | 1:5772 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Creators Refractor Red | 1:11790 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Power Kings Refractor Red | 1:11790 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base Common | 6:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Uncommon | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Torchers | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| Creators | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| Base Rare | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Reflash | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Team Finest | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Power Kings | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| The Man | 1:422 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Landmark Metal Series | 1:480 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Centurions | 1:562 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Nightmare Fuel | 1:562 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Smashing Through | 1:562 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| For the Record | 1:843 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Base Common SuperFractor | 1:3500 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Base Uncommon SuperFractor | 1:3500 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Base Rare Superfractor | 1:3500 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| 92 Finest Superfractor | 1:9571 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Framed White | 1:16845 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Headliners Superfractor | 1:28713 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Rookie Finest Autographs | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Flashback Autographs | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Rookie Finest Autographs Refractor | 1:37 | 48% | 0.65 |
| Finest Autographs | 1:50 | 38% | 0.48 |
| Finest Greats Autographs | 1:64 | 31% | 0.38 |
| Finest Greats Autographs Refractor | 1:92 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Rookie Finest Autographs Refractor Blue | 1:101 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Flashback Autographs Refractor | 1:107 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Finest Autographs Refractor | 1:119 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Finest Freshman Auto Refractor | 1:183 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Finest Greats Autographs Refractor Blue | 1:188 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Rookie Finest Autographs Refractor Gold | 1:191 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Refractor | 1:200 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Flashback Autographs Refractor Blue | 1:217 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Finest Freshman Auto | 1:238 | 9.6% | 0.10 |
| Finest Autographs Refractor Blue | 1:249 | 9.2% | 0.10 |
| Finest Autographs Refractor Gold | 1:253 | 9.1% | 0.09 |
| Flashback Autographs Refractor Gold | 1:286 | 8.1% | 0.08 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Refractor Gold | 1:330 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Finest Greats Autographs Refractor Gold | 1:343 | 6.8% | 0.07 |
| Rookie Finest Autographs Refractor Orange | 1:372 | 6.3% | 0.06 |
| Finest Fans Autographs Refractor | 1:475 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Finest Autographs Refractor Orange | 1:504 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Flashback Autographs Refractor Orange | 1:519 | 4.5% | 0.05 |
| Finest Greats Autographs Refractor Orange | 1:570 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Finest Freshman Auto Refractor Blue | 1:638 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Refractor Orange | 1:658 | 3.6% | 0.04 |
| Finest Fans Autographs Refractor Gold | 1:779 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Finest Freshman Auto Refractor Gold | 1:857 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Rookie Finest Autographs Refractor Black | 1:932 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Rookie Finest Autographs Refractor Oil Spill | 1:997 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Finest Autographs Refractor Black | 1:1188 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Flashback Autographs Refractor Black | 1:1188 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Finest Autographs Refractor Oil Spill | 1:1222 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Finest Greats Autographs Refractor Black | 1:1254 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Finest Fans Autographs Refractor Orange | 1:1561 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Refractor Black | 1:1651 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Finest Freshman Auto Refractor Orange | 1:1711 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Rookie Finest Autographs Refractor Red | 1:1859 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Finest Autographs Refractor Red | 1:2376 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Flashback Autographs Refractor Red | 1:2376 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Finest Greats Autographs Refractor Red | 1:2472 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Refractor Red | 1:3315 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Finest Fans Autographs Refractor Black | 1:3887 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Finest Freshman Auto Refractor Black | 1:4276 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Finest Fans Autographs Refractor Red | 1:7774 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Rookie Finest Autographs Superfractor | 1:8222 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Finest Freshman Auto Refractor Red | 1:8551 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Finest Autographs Superfractor | 1:11555 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Flashback Autographs Superfractor | 1:11555 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Finest Greats Autographs Superfractor | 1:12575 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Superfractor | 1:16444 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Finest Fans Autographs Superfractor | 1:38867 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Finest Freshman Auto Superfractor | 1:42754 | 0.1% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Topps Finest Football (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Topps Finest Football. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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