What are the odds of an autograph in 2026 Topps Football?

The rarest autograph tier we list, the Mascot Autographs Foilfractor, falls at 1:3,448,276 packs in Hobby. Autograph odds vary widely by parallel — set your pack count on this page and pick any autograph from the dropdown to see the live chance of at least one, plus how many packs it takes for a 50%, 90% or 95% shot. There are 113 autograph rows in Hobby alone.

How rare is the Base Cards Rainbow Foil in 2026 Topps Football?

The Base Cards Rainbow Foil lands at 1:41 packs (Hobby) — about a 45% chance of at least one across 24 packs. Remember this is the odds of pulling the parallel at all; a specific player's Base Cards Rainbow Foil is far longer odds.

How does the 2026 Topps Football odds calculator work?

Enter how many packs you're opening and pick the parallel, autograph or insert you're chasing. The tool uses Topps' official published per-pack odds (1:N) and treats each pack as an independent draw, computing the chance of at least one as 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs, the expected number, and — working backwards — how many packs you'd need for a 50%, 90% or 95% chance. Switch between 19 product configurations (Hobby, Hobby Silver Pk, Club WM Exclusiv M Bx, Jumbo, Value Box, Hanger, Mega, Fanatics, Fat Pack, London Games Me, Bulk Pack, Kids M Bx, Club Exclusiv Bx Pack, Gc White Club Ex Slip Bx Sheets Sams Pack Pack Rate Rate, Jumbo Silver Pk, Super Bx, Exclusiv Bx Club Exclusiv Bx Base, Club Ex Bx Sams Club Exclusiv Bx Oversized Base, Super Bx Oversized); each has its own odds.

Are these 2026 Topps Football odds official?

Yes. Every rate here comes straight from Topps' official odds sheet for 2026 Topps Football — 4,813 parallel/insert/autograph odds across 19 configurations. We don't estimate or sample; we present the manufacturer's stated odds and do the probability math on top.

2026 Topps Football Odds Calculator — Autograph & Parallel Pull Rates (Hobby, Hobby Silver Pk, Club WM Exclusiv M Bx & more)

Configurations

Odds Rows

4,813

Autographs

113

Base Parallels

2026 Topps Football Pack Odds Calculator

Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.

Product configuration

How many packs are you opening?

packs

What are you chasing?

24 packs · Hobby · Autographs Foilfractor 1991 Topps Rookies Football Base

94%

chance of at least one Autographs Foilfractor 1991 Topps Rookies Football Base across 24 packs

≈ 2.67 expectedbase 1 in 9≈ 6 packs for 50%

Packs to hit

Parallel	Per pack	≥1 in 24	Expected



Autographs Foilfractor 1991 Topps Rookies Football Base	1:9	94%	2.67
Rookie Real One Autographs Base	1:734	3.2%	0.03
Platinum 1991 Topps Football Rookie Autograph	1:749	3.2%	0.03
NFL Stars Autographs Blue	1:1,297	1.8%	0.02
Rookie Real One Autographs Green	1:1,447	1.6%	0.02
Cards Base 1991 Topps Football Rookie Autograph	1:1,637	1.5%	0.01
NFL Stars Autographs Green	1:1,806	1.3%	0.01
Base Topps Autograph Rookie Patch Cards	1:1,824	1.3%	0.01
Cards Blue 1991 Topps Football Rookie Autograph	1:2,479	1.0%	0.01
NFL Rookie Material Autograph Cards	1:2,550	0.9%	0.01
Rookie Real One Autographs Gold	1:2,824	0.8%	0.01
Autographs Base Victory Ink Green	1:2,937	0.8%	0.01
Real One Autographs Base	1:3,181	0.8%	0.01
Real One Autographs Base	1:3,181	0.8%	0.01
NFL Stars Autographs Gold	1:3,325	0.7%	0.01
Real One Autographs Green	1:3,407	0.7%	0.01
Real One Autographs Green	1:3,407	0.7%	0.01
Real One Autographs Gold	1:4,291	0.6%	0.01
Real One Autographs Gold	1:4,291	0.6%	0.01
Cards Green 1991 Topps Football Rookie Autograph	1:4,582	0.5%	0.01
Base NFL Rookie Material Autograph Cards Gold	1:5,047	0.5%	0
Base Rookie Premiere Autographs Green Ink	1:5,154	0.5%	0
Real One Autographs Base	1:5,301	0.5%	0
Rookie Real One Autographs Orange	1:5,572	0.4%	0
Real One Autographs Green	1:5,678	0.4%	0
Autographs Green Victory Ink Gold	1:5,907	0.4%	0
NFL Stars Autographs Orange	1:6,343	0.4%	0
Platinum NFL Stars Autographs Base	1:6,777	0.4%	0
Orange Topps Autograph Rookie Patch Cards	1:7,041	0.3%	0
Real One Autographs Gold	1:7,151	0.3%	0
NFL Material Autograph Cards	1:7,452	0.3%	0
Field Fit Swatch Collection Autograph	1:7,452	0.3%	0
2025 All Topps Team Autographs Green	1:8,009	0.3%	0
Real One Autographs Orange	1:8,388	0.3%	0
Real One Autographs Orange	1:8,388	0.3%	0
Cards Gold 1991 Topps Football Rookie Autograph	1:8,963	0.3%	0
Base Field Fit Swatch Collection Autograph	1:9,133	0.3%	0
NFL Material Autograph Cards Gold	1:9,590	0.2%	0
NFL Rookie Material Autograph Cards	1:9,835	0.2%	0
1991 Super Rookie Autographs Green	1:10,412	0.2%	0
Autographs Gold Victory Ink Orange	1:11,466	0.2%	0
Mascot Autographs Base	1:11,847	0.2%	0
Base TOPPS AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS Base	1:11,853	0.2%	0
Orange TOPPS AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS	1:12,801	0.2%	0
Rookie Real One Autographs Black	1:13,564	0.2%	0
Real One Autographs Orange	1:13,979	0.2%	0
NFL Stars Autographs Black	1:15,618	0.2%	0
2025 All Topps Team Autographs Gold	1:15,858	0.2%	0
Field Fit Swatch Collection Autograph	1:17,434	0.1%	0
Black Topps Autograph Rookie Patch Cards	1:17,600	0.1%	0
NFL Material Autograph Cards	1:18,265	0.1%	0
Real One Autographs Black	1:20,332	0.1%	0
Real One Autographs Black	1:20,332	0.1%	0
2025 All Topps Team Autographs Base	1:20,615	0.1%	0
1991 Super Rookie Autographs Gold	1:20,615	0.1%	0
Cards Orange 1991 Topps Football Rookie Autograph	1:22,407	0.1%	0
Relic Gold NFL Material Dual Relic Autographs Gold	1:23,976	0.1%	0
Relic Base NFL Material Dual Relic Autographs	1:24,214	0.1%	0
Orange NFL Rookie Material Autograph Cards	1:24,589	0.1%	0
Rookie Real One Autographs Red	1:26,774	0.1%	0
2025 All Topps Team Autographs Orange	1:27,488	0.1%	0
Autographs Orange Victory Ink Black	1:28,629	0.1%	0
Cards Black 1991 Topps Football Rookie Autograph	1:30,610	0.1%	0
NFL Stars Autographs Red	1:31,231	0.1%	0
Black TOPPS AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS Black	1:32,000	0.1%	0
Real One Autographs Black	1:33,886	0.1%	0
Autographs Future Stars Future Stars	1:34,711	0.1%	0
Topps Autograph Rookie Patch Cards	1:35,199	0.1%	0
Field Fit Swatch Collection Autograph	1:38,359	0.1%	0
Real One Autographs Red	1:40,279	0.1%	0
Real One Autographs Red	1:40,279	0.1%	0
1991 Super Rookie Autographs Base	1:41,238	0.1%	0
1991 Super Rookie Autographs Orange	1:41,238	0.1%	0
Relic Orange NFL Material Dual Relic Autographs	1:42,626	0.1%	0
Orange NFL Material Autograph Cards	1:45,663	0.1%	0
NFL Stars Dual Autographs Base	1:47,141	0.1%	0
NFL Rookie Material Autograph Cards Red	1:49,165	0.0%	0
Green Ink Rookie Premiere Autographs Red Ink	1:51,547	0.0%	0
Mascot Autographs Green	1:52,057	0.0%	0
Autographs Black Victory Ink Red	1:57,274	0.0%	0
TOPPS AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS Red	1:58,686	0.0%	0
Real One Autographs Red	1:67,132	0.0%	0
Mascot Autographs Gold	1:68,729	0.0%	0
2025 All Topps Team Autographs Black	1:68,729	0.0%	0
Black Field Fit Swatch Collection Autograph	1:71,023	0.0%	0
NFL Material Autograph Cards Red	1:87,184	0.0%	0
1991 Super Rookie Autographs Black	1:93,721	0.0%	0
FUTURE STARS Autographs Gold	1:103,093	0.0%	0
NFL Material Dual Relic Autographs Black	1:106,497	0.0%	0
NFL Stars Triple Autographs Base	1:114,939	0.0%	0
Rookie Real One Autographs Foilfractor	1:133,869	0.0%	0
Mascot Autographs Orange	1:137,363	0.0%	0
2025 All Topps Team Autographs Red	1:137,363	0.0%	0
NFL Stars Autographs Platinum	1:156,250	0.0%	0
Platinum Topps Autograph Rookie Patch Cards	1:176,057	0.0%	0
1991 Super Rookie Autographs Red	1:187,266	0.0%	0
Real One Autographs Foilfractor	1:202,178	0.0%	0
Real One Autographs Foilfractor	1:202,178	0.0%	0
NFL Material Dual Relic Autographs Red	1:213,220	0.0%	0
Red NFL Rookie Material Autograph Cards	1:245,701	0.0%	0
Platinum TOPPS AUTOGRAPH PATCH CARDS	1:281,691	0.0%	0
Autographs Red Victory Ink Foilfractor	1:286,533	0.0%	0
Real One Autographs Foilfractor	1:336,963	0.0%	0
Mascot Autographs Black	1:343,643	0.0%	0
Field Fit Swatch Collection Autograph	1:354,610	0.0%	0
NFL Material Autograph Cards	1:436,682	0.0%	0
FUTURE STARS Autographs Black	1:515,464	0.0%	0
Mascot Autographs Red	1:684,932	0.0%	0
2025 All Topps Team Autographs Foilfractor	1:684,932	0.0%	0
1991 Super Rookie Autographs Foilfractor	1:934,580	0.0%	0
NFL Material Dual Relic Autographs Platinum	1:1,063,830	0.0%	0
FUTURE STARS Autographs Red	1:2,564,103	0.0%	0
Mascot Autographs Foilfractor	1:3,448,276	0.0%	0

These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Topps Football (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.

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How the Odds Are Calculated

Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:

Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card, 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs.
Expected — the average number across your packs, packs / N.
Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards, ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).

Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.

Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Topps Football. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.