25 26 Topps Chrome Updates Basketball Sapphire Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Gold | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Orange | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Sapphire Gold | 1:86 | 24% | 0.28 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Sapphire Orange | 1:88 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Black | 1:103 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Future Stars Autographs Sapphire Gold | 1:162 | 14% | 0.15 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Sapphire Black | 1:192 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Red | 1:203 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Future Stars Autographs Sapphire Orange | 1:230 | 9.9% | 0.10 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Sapphire Red | 1:375 | 6.2% | 0.06 |
| Future Stars Autographs Sapphire Black | 1:575 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Topps Chrome Autographs Sapphire Padpardascha | 1:1046 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Future Stars Autographs Sapphire Red | 1:1074 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| 1980-81 Topps Basketball Autographs Sapphire Padpardascha | 1:1873 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Future Stars Autographs Sapphire Padpardascha | 1:5035 | 0.5% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 25 26 Topps Chrome Updates Basketball Sapphire (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 25 26 Topps Chrome Updates Basketball Sapphire. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.