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Configurations
1
Odds Rows
104
Autographs
20
Base Parallels
47
Topps 30 Years of Toy Story Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Standard · You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card
52%
chance of at least one You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card across 24 packs
≈ 0.73 expectedbase 1 in 33≈ 23 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Standard
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Cards | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Cards Aqua Foil Parallel | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Base Cards Blue Foil Parallel | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Base Cards Green Foil Parallel | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Base Cards Purple Foil Parallel | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Base Cards Rose Gold Foil Parallel | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| 30 Years And Beyond Woody's Cowboy Hat Shimmer Refractor 30 Years And Beyond Gold | 1:44 | 42% | 0.55 |
| Base Cards Orange Foil Parallel | 1:61 | 33% | 0.39 |
| Refractor | 1:87 | 24% | 0.28 |
| 30 Years And Beyond Toy Story 30th Anniversary Refractor | 1:145 | 15% | 0.17 |
| Base Cards Black Foil Parallel | 1:152 | 15% | 0.16 |
| 30 Years And Beyond Orange Refractor 30 Years And Beyond Black | 1:174 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Refractor | 1:202 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Base Cards Red Foil Parallel | 1:304 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| Falling with Style Gold Refractor | 1:304 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| So Play Nice Gold Refractor | 1:304 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Toy Story 30th Anniversary Refractor | 1:338 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Orange Refractor | 1:405 | 5.8% | 0.06 |
| Refractor 30 Years And Beyond Red | 1:434 | 5.4% | 0.06 |
| Falling with Style Toy Story 30th Anniversary Refractor | 1:506 | 4.6% | 0.05 |
| So Play Nice Toy Story 30th Anniversary Refractor | 1:506 | 4.6% | 0.05 |
| Topps 1995 Black Refractor | 1:590 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Falling with Style Orange Refractor | 1:609 | 3.9% | 0.04 |
| So Play Nice Orange Refractor | 1:609 | 3.9% | 0.04 |
| Art of Toy Story Black Refractor | 1:765 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Refractor 30 Years And Beyond | 1:870 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Black Refractor You've Got A Friend In Me Red | 1:1,015 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Topps 1995 Red Refractor | 1:1,179 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Gold Foil Parallel | 1:1,522 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Falling with Style Black Refractor | 1:1,522 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| So Play Nice Black Refractor | 1:1,522 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Toy Taaffeite Black Refractor | 1:1,539 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Art of Toy Story Red Refractor | 1:1,539 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Andy's Cards Shadowbox Black Refractor | 1:1,539 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Refractor The Claw Shadowbox Red | 1:1,539 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Refractor You've Got A Friend In Me | 1:2,058 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Al's Toy Barn Black Refractor | 1:3,044 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Toy Taaffeite Red Refractor | 1:3,044 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Andy's Cards Shadowbox Red Refractor Andy's Cards Shadowbox | 1:3,044 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Refractor The Claw Shadowbox | 1:3,044 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Falling with Style Red Refractor | 1:3,109 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| So Play Nice Red Refractor | 1:3,109 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Al's Toy Barn Red Refractor | 1:6,088 | 0.4% | 0 |
| To Infinity… Black Refractor | 1:7,691 | 0.3% | 0 |
| …and Beyond Black Refractor | 1:7691 | 0.3% | 0 |
| To Infinity… Red Refractor | 1:14,612 | 0.2% | 0 |
| …and Beyond Red Refractor | 1:14,612 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| 30 Years And Beyond | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Falling with Style | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| So Play Nice | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Image Variations | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Pizza Planet Variation | 1:96 | 22% | 0.25 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Woody's Cowboy Hat Shimmer You've Got A Friend In Me Gold | 1:103 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Toy Story Sketch Card | 1:114 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Toy Story Sketch Card Black Foil | 1:122 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Falling with Style Woody's Cowboy Hat Shimmer | 1:153 | 15% | 0.16 |
| So Play Nice Woody's Cowboy Hat Shimmer | 1:153 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Art of Toy Story | 1:192 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Toy Story Sketch Card Gold Foil | 1:238 | 9.6% | 0.10 |
| Topps 1995 | 1:281 | 8.2% | 0.09 |
| Andy's Cards Shadowbox | 1:765 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| The Claw Shadowbox The Claw Shadowbox Black | 1:765 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Toy Story Sketch Card Silver Foil | 1:900 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Toy Taaffeite | 1:975 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Studio Creations Sketch Card Black and Gold Foil | 1:1,010 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Al's Toy Barn | 1:1,462 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Sid Has Your Cards | 1:2,923 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| To Infinity… | 1:3,653 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| …and Beyond | 1:3,653 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Superfractor | 1:4,566 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Pixar Ball Variation | 1:4,714 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Cone Variation | 1:5,845 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Topps 1995 Superfractor | 1:5,845 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Art of Toy Story Superfractor | 1:7,691 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Superfractor | 1:12,176 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Toy Taaffeite Superfractor | 1:14,612 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Superfractor | 1:14,612 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Superfractor | 1:14,612 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Falling with Style Superfractor | 1:20,874 | 0.1% | 0 |
| So Play Nice Superfractor | 1:20,874 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Al's Toy Barn Superfractor | 1:29,223 | 0.1% | 0 |
| To Infinity… Superfractor | 1:73,056 | 0.0% | 0 |
| …and Beyond Superfractor | 1:73,056 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card | 1:33 | 52% | 0.73 |
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Blue Sky Refractor | 1:45 | 42% | 0.53 |
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Woody's Cowboy Hat Shimmer | 1:69 | 30% | 0.35 |
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Buzz Lightyear Shimmer | 1:86 | 24% | 0.28 |
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Gold Refractor | 1:129 | 17% | 0.19 |
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Toy Story 30th Anniversary Refractor | 1:179 | 13% | 0.13 |
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Orange Refractor | 1:212 | 11% | 0.11 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph | 1:371 | 6.3% | 0.06 |
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Black Refractor | 1:530 | 4.4% | 0.05 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Toy Story 30th Anniversary Refractor | 1:707 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:848 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Red Refractor | 1:1,024 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Black Refractor | 1:1,142 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Golden Toys Shadowbox Autograph | 1:1,239 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Golden Toys Shadowbox Autograph Black Refractor | 1:1,491 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Red Refractor | 1:2,283 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Golden Toys Shadowbox Autograph Red Refractor | 1:2,982 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Superfractor | 1:5,116 | 0.5% | 0 |
| You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Superfractor | 1:11,411 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Golden Toys Shadowbox Autograph Superfractor | 1:14,612 | 0.2% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for Topps 30 Years of Toy Story (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for Topps 30 Years of Toy Story. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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