An interactive Topps 30 Years of Toy Story pack odds calculator built on Topps' official published odds. Enter how many packs you're opening — pick any refractor, parallel, autograph or insert — and get your live chance of at least one, the expected count, and how many packs it takes for a 50/90/95% shot.
T
By tcgtalk
Apr 2026· 5 min read
Advertisement
Configurations
1
Odds Rows
104
Autographs
20
Base Parallels
47
Topps 30 Years of Toy Story Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Standard · You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card
52%
chance of at least one You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card across 24 packs
≈ 0.73 expectedbase 1 in 33≈ 23 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Parallel
Per pack
≥1 in 24
Expected
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card
1:33
52%
0.73
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Blue Sky Refractor
1:45
42%
0.53
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Woody's Cowboy Hat Shimmer
1:69
30%
0.35
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Buzz Lightyear Shimmer
1:86
24%
0.28
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Gold Refractor
1:129
17%
0.19
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Toy Story 30th Anniversary Refractor
1:179
13%
0.13
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Orange Refractor
1:212
11%
0.11
You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph
1:371
6.3%
0.06
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Black Refractor
1:530
4.4%
0.05
You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Toy Story 30th Anniversary Refractor
1:707
3.3%
0.03
You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Orange Refractor
1:848
2.8%
0.03
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Red Refractor
1:1,024
2.3%
0.02
You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Black Refractor
1:1,142
2.1%
0.02
Golden Toys Shadowbox Autograph
1:1,239
1.9%
0.02
Golden Toys Shadowbox Autograph Black Refractor
1:1,491
1.6%
0.02
You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Red Refractor
1:2,283
1.0%
0.01
Golden Toys Shadowbox Autograph Red Refractor
1:2,982
0.8%
0.01
You. Are. A. Toy… Story Autograph Card Superfractor
1:5,116
0.5%
0
You've Got A Friend In Me Dual Autograph Superfractor
1:11,411
0.2%
0
Golden Toys Shadowbox Autograph Superfractor
1:14,612
0.2%
0
These are Topps’ official published odds for Topps 30 Years of Toy Story (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
tcgTalk Topps Tools
Browse every Topps odds calculator
Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card, 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs.
Expected — the average number across your packs, packs / N.
Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards, ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for Topps 30 Years of Toy Story. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
Advertisement
tcgTalk Topps Tools
Explore more Topps odds calculators
Done with Topps 30 Years of Toy Story? Jump back to the hub for every Topps set's official pull rates — Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more.
