Vendetta Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening — type a number or tap a Vendetta Vault (6 packs), a booster box (24 packs) or a sealed case (144 packs) — then pick the card you’re chasing. All rates trace back to the Vendetta pull-rate page (90 packs), cross-checked against the larger Unleashed sample (168 packs plus a full 6-box case).
P(≥1) = 1 − (1 − p_slot)^slots. That is also why the published per-pack percentages do not add up to 100%.Recommended. Epic, Alt Art and the Legend-only floor are kept as published — the larger Unleashed sample measured the same figures. Overnumbered is trimmed to the Unleashed rate, and Crystal Rose, Spirit Forge and Signed Overnumbered are shown as bounds rather than rates.
Pick the card you actually want. The big number is your chance of pulling at least one across every rare+ slot you open — two slots per pack, not one.
| Rarity | Per slot | Per pack (≥1) | Chance of ≥1 | Expected cards | Base odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legend (Rare)Floor | 25% | 44% | 100% | 12 | 1 in 2.3 |
| Regular Rare (incl. Decree cycle)Floor | 54% | 79% | 100% | 25.8 | 1 in 1.3 |
| Epic (signature spells, epic units)Per box | 15% | 27% | 100% | 7 | 1 in 3.7 |
| Alt Art / Showcase (non-Overnumbered)Per box | 4.6% | 9.0% | 90% | 2.2 | 1 in 11 |
| Overnumbered (rivalry art)Chase | 0.85% | 1.7% | 34% | 0.4 | 1 in 59 |
| Signed Overnumbered ✦LotteryBounded | 0.10% – 0.42% | 0.21% – 0.83% | 4.9% – 18% | 0.05 – 0.2 | 1 in 480 – 1 in 120 |
| Crystal Rose (Wild Rift showcase)LotteryBounded | 0.12% – 0.35% | 0.23% – 0.69% | 5.4% – 15% | 0.06 – 0.2 | 1 in 432 – 1 in 144 |
| Spirit Forge showcase (SP)LotteryBounded | 0.10% – 0.42% | 0.21% – 0.83% | 4.9% – 18% | 0.05 – 0.2 | 1 in 480 – 1 in 120 |
- Per-slot rarities sum to 100% by construction — the Regular Rare row is the residual, and it lands at ~25.8 per box, inside the published 24–26 range.
- A slot is a hit above the floor 21% of the time, so the model puts 62% of packs at Legend-only — against the published 65%.
- 6.3% of packs come out double-Legend, which is the reported double-Legend pack showing up in the math.
These are tier odds, not named-card odds. The Crystal Rose tier spans Crystal Ahri, Crystal Kai'Sa, Crystal Ezreal and more, and the Epic tier covers dozens of cards including Heart of the Tempest, Dominus, Rogue Assassin, Public Execution and Endless Riches — so your chance of a specific named card is a fraction of the tier rate shown here.
Rows marked Bounded are not measured rates. Crystal Rose, the Spirit Forge showcase and Signed Overnumbered are all unconfirmed at retail; the pull-rate page puts Crystal Rose at roughly 1 per case or rarer, so those rows show a range between a generous and a conservative reading of that bound. Treat them as a lottery line: buy the single, never chase it through packs.
Rates come from ~90 Vendetta packs — three release-week booster boxes plus three 6-pack Vaults — cross-checked against the 168-pack Riftbound Unleashed sample and its full 6-box case. The Vendetta packs were promotional creator boxes supplied before release and ran hotter than retail, especially at the top end. The model treats each of the two rare+ slots in a pack as an independent draw at the per-slot rate; real collation clusters hits, so a live box or case can over- or under-shoot. Riot Games does not publish official pull rates. Not affiliated with Riot Games. This is not financial advice.
Why Two Rare Slots Changes the Math
Most pack calculators assume one hit slot per pack that resolves to exactly one rarity, so their per-pack rates form a tidy multinomial summing to 100%. A Vendetta pack does not work that way. Each pack carries 3 foils: one foil Common or Uncommon, plus two independent Rare-or-above slots. A 24-pack box opens 48 rare+ slots, and a single pack can hold a Legend and an Epic at the same time — which is exactly why the pull-rate page notes its percentages “do not sum to 100%.”
So the unit of probability here is the slot, not the pack. The published figures are per-pack (“at least one in the pack”), so the first thing this tool does is back out the per-slot rate:
- Per slot from per pack —
p_slot = 1 − √(1 − p_pack). Feeding the published per-pack number straight in as a slot rate would roughly double every count: 48 slots × 27% would claim 13 Epics per box against the 6–7 actually observed. - Per pack —
1 − (1 − p_slot)², which reproduces the published figure exactly. - Across n packs —
1 − (1 − p_slot)^(2n). - Expected cards —
p_slot × 2n, a count of cards, not of packs. - Both slots the same —
p_slot², which is how the double-Legend pack falls out of the model at 6.3% of packs.
Two independent checks say the conversion is right. The Overnumbered row is the cleanest: the published 2% per pack backs out to 1.01% per slot, which over 48 slots is 0.48 per box — the published “~0.5, about 1 in 2–3 boxes” on the nose. And because the per-slot rarities must sum to 100%, the regular-Rare slot can be computed as the residual — whatever the other rarities leave over. It lands at ~25.8 regular Rares per box, inside the pull-rate page’s independent “~24–26 per box” range. Nothing forced that to happen.
A third, softer check: with hits filling 21% of slots, the model says 62% of packs should be Legend-only, against the 65% actually counted. Close enough to trust at this sample size, and the small gap is the direction you’d expect from real collation clustering hits rather than scattering them independently.
The Per-Slot Rates Behind the Tool
These are the retail-adjusted defaults. Each row shows the per-slot probability, the per-pack figure it composes to, and what it means over one 24-pack box. Rows marked bounded are not measured rates — see Crystal Rose below.
| Rarity | Per Slot | Per Pack (≥1) | Per Box | Derived From |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legend (Rare) | 25% | 44% | ~12 | ~12 Legends per box ÷ 48 slots = 25.0% per slot |
| Regular Rare (incl. Decree cycle) | 54% | 79% | ~25.8 | residual — 1 − (every other rarity), then checked against the published ~24–26 per box |
| Epic (signature spells, epic units) | 15% | 27% | ~7 | ~27% per pack → 1 − √(1 − 0.27) = 14.6% per slot → 48 × 0.146 ≈ 7 per box |
| Alt Art / Showcase (non-Overnumbered) | 4.6% | 9.0% | ~2.2 | ~9% per pack → 1 − √(1 − 0.09) = 4.6% per slot → 48 × 0.046 ≈ 2.2 per box |
| Overnumbered (rivalry art) | 0.85% | 1.7% | ~0.4 | creator ~2% per pack → 1.01% per slot (≈0.48/box); retail trimmed to Unleashed's ~1.7% per pack → 0.85% per slot (≈0.41/box) |
| Signed Overnumbered ✦ (bounded) | 0.10% – 0.42% | 0.21% – 0.83% | ~0.05 – 0.2 | bounded by the published "<1% of packs, <0.2 per box" — no rate was measured |
| Crystal Rose (Wild Rift showcase) (bounded) | 0.12% – 0.35% | 0.23% – 0.69% | ~0.06 – 0.2 | retail: bounded at "~1 per case or rarer" → 1 in 144 packs (288 slots) at the generous end, 1 in 3 cases at the conservative end. creator: 2–3 across the three creator boxes (72 packs / 144 slots) |
| Spirit Forge showcase (SP) (bounded) | 0.10% – 0.42% | 0.21% – 0.83% | ~0.05 – 0.2 | creator: one Ezreal, Spirit Forge (SP5 · 5-006) in 90 packs → 1 in 180 slots. retail: an inferred share of the combined Crystal Rose / Spirit Forge "<0.3 per box" bound |
The per-slot column sums to exactly 100% by construction, because the regular-Rare row is the residual. The per-pack column deliberately does not, and that is the whole point of the two-slot model.
What that means per box and per case
| Rarity | ≥1 in a Box (24 packs) | ≥1 in a Case (144 packs) | Expected per Case | Packs for a Coin Flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epic (signature spells, epic units) | 100% | 100% | ~41.9 | ~3 |
| Alt Art / Showcase (non-Overnumbered) | 90% | 100% | ~13.3 | ~8 |
| Overnumbered (rivalry art) | 34% | 92% | ~2.5 | ~41 |
| Signed Overnumbered ✦ | 4.9% – 18% | 26% – 70% | ~0.3 – 1.2 | ~84–333 |
| Crystal Rose (Wild Rift showcase) | 5.4% – 15% | 28% – 63% | ~0.3 – 1 | ~100–300 |
| Spirit Forge showcase (SP) | 4.9% – 18% | 26% – 70% | ~0.3 – 1.2 | ~84–333 |
The Creator-Box Adjustment
The 90-pack Vendetta sample has a sampling problem worth being blunt about: it came from promotional boxes Riot supplied to content creators before release (three release-week booster boxes plus three 6-pack Vaults — promotional creator boxes supplied before release). The pull-rate page says so directly, and warns that creator boxes can run hotter than retail — calling the high-end pulls “a best case rather than an expected rate.” So this tool defaults to a retail-adjusted basis, with a toggle that shows the raw creator numbers beside it.
The adjustment is narrow and evidence-led, not a blanket haircut. Vendetta shares its pack structure with Riftbound Unleashed, whose sample is both larger and not promotional: 168 packs across seven boxes, plus one complete sealed 6-box, 144-pack case. Where the two agree, nothing moves.
| Tier | Vendetta (creator) | Unleashed (cross-check) | Retail-Adjusted Default |
|---|---|---|---|
| Epic | ~27% per pack | ~27% per pack (168 packs) | Unchanged — 15% per slot |
| Alt Art / Showcase | ~9% per pack | ~10% per pack | Unchanged — 4.6% per slot |
| Legend density | ~12 per box | 12 per box in all 6 case boxes | Unchanged — 25% per slot |
| Legend-only floor | ~64% of packs | ~65% of packs | Unchanged — 65% |
| Overnumbered | ~2% per pack (~0.48/box) | ~1.7% per pack; only 1 in a 6-box case | Trimmed to 0.85% per slot (~0.4/box) |
| Crystal Rose | 2–3 across 3 creator boxes (2.1% per slot) | No equivalent; Unleashed’s top tier saw zero pulls at launch | Bounded range, 0.12%–0.35% per slot |
| Signed Overnumbered | Rate unknown | Rate unknown | Bounded by the published “<0.2 per box” |
The scale of the gap is easiest to see on Crystal Rose. Taken at face value, the creator sample implies a 64% chance of a Crystal in a single box. The retail bound puts the same box at 5.4% – 15%. If you have been watching release-week opening videos, that first number is the one you absorbed — and it is not a retail expectation.
Crystal Rose: A Bounded Lottery, Not a Rate
There is no confirmed Crystal Rose pull rate, so this page does not invent one. The Wild Rift collaboration showcase — Crystal Ahri, Crystal Kai'Sa, Crystal Ezreal — is the top chase of the set, and the pull-rate page puts it at roughly 1 per case or rarer at retail. “Or rarer” makes that a bound, not a measurement, so the calculator treats it as one: a range from a generous reading (one per 144-pack case) to a conservative one (one per three cases), shown everywhere as a range and tagged Bounded.
- Per box — 5.4% – 15% chance of at least one any Crystal.
- Per case — 28% – 63%, on ~$720 of sealed product at MSRP. A case can absolutely deliver zero.
- Coin flip — somewhere around 100–300 packs, i.e. roughly 4.2–12.5 boxes.
- And that is for any Crystal. The pool spans multiple champions, so a named one — Crystal Ahri specifically — is a fraction of even those odds.
The pull-rate page’s advice on the base Kai'Sa Epic applies with far more force here: buy the single, never chase the Crystal through packs. The same goes for the Ezreal, Spirit Forge showcase (SP5 · 5-006), which turned up once in a Vault across the whole sample — one pull is an anecdote, not a rate — and for the Signed Overnumbered variant, whose rate is simply unknown and is bounded here by the published “under 0.2 per box.”
The 64% Legend-Only Floor
Every chase number above deserves this one next to it: about 64% of Vendetta packs contain no Epic, Alt Art or Overnumbered at all — both rare+ slots came out a Legend or a regular Rare. That is roughly 15.6 of the 24 packs in a box. Only about 35% of packs deliver anything above that floor.
The cause is structural. Vendetta’s nine Legends — Zed, Shen, Akali, Ambessa, Mel, Renekton, Nasus, Jace and Kennen — sit at Rare, so they compete for the same slots as the Epics. At 25% per slot that is ~12 Legends per box, and 6.3% of packs (~1.5 per box) come out double-Legend — both slots a champion card worth a dollar or two. Alongside them, the seven-colour Decree cycle (Strength, Focus, Discord, Insight, Unity, Rage, Fury) shows up near-complete most boxes, which is pleasant to assemble and worth very little.
That floor is the honest counterweight to the chase math, and it is why the tool shows it as a headline number rather than burying it. Two rare+ slots per pack sounds generous until you notice what usually fills them.
Price Basis & Why ROI Is Not Modelled
This calculator deliberately stops at counts and probabilities. It does not output a break-even, an expected box value, or an ROI figure — and that is a data decision, not an oversight.
Price basis: Early speculative release-week asks in USD, July 2026. Vendetta had no established secondary market at the time of writing, and Riftbound singles typically fall in the 2–4 weeks after release. Every figure quoted on the pull-rate page — speculative $400+ for Crystal Ahri, $300+ for Crystal Kai'Sa, $250+ for Crystal Ezreal, $120+ for Ezreal, Spirit Forge, $25–40 for Heart of the Tempest, $15–25 for Dominus, $10–20 for Public Execution, $10–15 for Endless Riches — is a release-week ask on a market that did not yet exist. Multiplying unconfirmed top-tier odds by unsettled speculative prices would produce an EV number with two large unknowns stacked on top of each other, and it would look far more authoritative than it is.
What the odds do support is the structural conclusion, and it is unambiguous: with a 64% Legend-only floor, the Crystal Rose chase spread thinly across multiple champions, and a ~$720 case that can deliver zero of them, opening Vendetta to acquire specific cards does not make financial sense. Open it for the experience, the Decree cycle and the master set. Buy singles for anything you actually want — after the market settles, since Riftbound singles typically fall in the 2–4 weeks following release.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Epic pull rate in Vendetta?
About 27% of packs hold at least one Epic, which is 15% per rare+ slot — roughly 7 Epics per 24-pack box, matching the 6–7 openers report. A box is 100% to contain at least one, and just 3 packs gets you to a coin flip. It’s the set’s most reliable figure — Unleashed measured the same rate over 168 packs.
What are the Crystal Rose odds?
Unconfirmed, and bounded rather than measured: 5.4% – 15% per box and 28% – 63% per 6-box case, from the published “~1 per case or rarer.” The creator boxes that pulled Crystal Kai'Sa and Crystal Ezreal ran hot and are not a retail guide. Buy the single.
What are the Overnumbered odds per box?
34% chance of at least one per box on the retail-adjusted rate (0.85% per slot, ~0.4 per box), rising to 92% over a full case. Expect roughly 1 per 2–3 boxes — and remember one box in the Vendetta sample produced none, and the sealed Unleashed case produced one across six boxes.
Why don’t the per-pack percentages add to 100%?
Because a pack has two independent rare+ slots, so it can land in several rarity buckets at once — a Legend and an Epic. What sums to 100% is the per-slot distribution, which is what this calculator is built on. A Vendetta calculator whose per-pack rates total 100% is modelling the pack incorrectly.
How many Legends will I actually pull?
About 12 per box at 25% per slot, with 6.3% of packs coming out double-Legend. Combined with regular Rares, that is why roughly 64% of packs carry nothing above the floor.
Disclaimer: Odds are modelled from ~90 Riftbound Vendetta packs (three release-week booster boxes plus three 6-pack Vaults — promotional creator boxes supplied before release), cross-checked against the 168-pack Unleashed sample and its full 6-box case. The Vendetta sample ran hotter than retail at the top end, so Crystal Rose, Spirit Forge and Signed Overnumbered are presented as bounds rather than rates and should not be planned around. The model treats each of the two rare+ slots in a pack as an independent draw at the per-slot rate; real collation clusters hits, so a live box or case can over- or under-shoot. Prices referenced are early speculative release-week asks and are not a current market quote. Riot Games does not publish official pull rates. Not affiliated with Riot Games. This is not financial advice.