Radiance Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening — type a number or tap a Radiance Vault (6 packs), a booster display (24 packs) or a sealed case (144 packs) — then pick the card you’re chasing. All rates trace back to the Radiance pull-rate page (54 packs), cross-checked against the Vendetta sample (90 packs) and the larger Unleashed sample (168 packs plus a full 6-box case).
P(≥1) = 1 − (1 − p_slot)^slots. That is also why the published per-pack percentages do not add up to 100%.Recommended. Epic and Legend density are pulled back to the figures Vendetta and Unleashed both measured over much larger, non-promotional samples. Showcase and alt-art Rune are trimmed only part of the way — Radiance genuinely ships 66 Showcase cards of 180. Overnumbered uses the Unleashed rate, the Ultimate uses Riot's own stated 0.025%, and Signed Overnumbered is shown as a bound rather than a rate.
Pick the card you actually want. The big number is your chance of pulling at least one across every rare+ slot you open — two slots per pack, not one.
| Rarity | Per slot | Per pack (≥1) | Chance of ≥1 | Expected cards | Base odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legend (Rare)Floor | 25% | 44% | 100% | 12 | 1 in 2.3 |
| Regular Rare (units, spells, gear, battlefields)Floor | 53% | 78% | 100% | 25.6 | 1 in 1.3 |
| Epic (signature spells, epic units)Per box | 15% | 27% | 100% | 7 | 1 in 3.7 |
| Showcase / alt-art EpicPer box | 4.6% | 9.0% | 90% | 2.2 | 1 in 11 |
| Alt-art Rune (music-themed)Per box | 1.3% | 2.5% | 45% | 0.6 | 1 in 40 |
| OvernumberedChase | 0.85% | 1.7% | 34% | 0.4 | 1 in 59 |
| Artist-signed Overnumbered ✦LotteryBounded | 0.10% – 0.42% | 0.21% – 0.83% | 4.9% – 18% | 0.05 – 0.2 | 1 in 480 – 1 in 120 |
| Ultimate Rare — Packed AmphitheaterLottery | 0.013% | 0.025% | 0.60% | 0.01 | 1 in 4,000 |
- Per-slot rarities sum to 100% by construction — the Regular Rare row is the residual, and it lands at ~25.6 per box, inside the published 25–30 range.
- A slot is a hit above the floor 22% of the time, so the model puts 61% of packs at Legend-only — against the published 65%.
- 6.3% of packs come out double-Legend, which is the reported double-Legend pack showing up in the math.
These are tier odds, not named-card odds. The Epic tier covers dozens of cards — Chronobreak, The Ball, Last Caress, K'Sante Dauntless, Orianna Lady of Clockwork and the rest — and the Overnumbered tier spans all nine Legends plus key Epics. So your chance of one specific named card is a fraction of the tier rate shown here. For a named Overnumbered, divide by roughly ten.
The Artist-signed Overnumbered row is a bound, not a measured rate: none appeared in our 54 packs and no rate has ever been measured for any Riftbound set, so it shows a range between a generous and a conservative reading of the Vendetta ceiling. The Ultimate Rare row is different — it is not our observation at all but Riot's own stated 0.025% of packs for the print run, which is why it reads identically on both bases.
Rates come from 54 Riftbound Radiance packs — two 24-pack booster displays plus one 6-pack Vault Bundle — opened at the October 12, 2026 embargo lift and cross-checked against the 90-pack Vendetta and 168-pack Unleashed samples, the latter including a full sealed 6-box case. These were promotional Radiance Summit boxes supplied before release and ran hot, and the Epic and Legend figures rest on a single display that was tallied card by card. The model treats each of the two rare+ slots in a pack as an independent draw at the per-slot rate; real collation clusters hits, so a live box or case can over- or under-shoot. Riot Games does not publish official pull rates. Not affiliated with Riot Games. This is not financial advice.
Why Two Rare Slots Changes the Math
Most pack calculators assume one hit slot per pack that resolves to exactly one rarity, so their per-pack rates form a tidy multinomial summing to 100%. A Radiance pack does not work that way. Each pack carries 3 foils: one foil Common or Uncommon, plus two independent Rare-or-above slots. A 24-pack display opens 48 rare+ slots, and a single pack can hold a Legend and an Epic at the same time — which is exactly why the pull-rate page notes its percentages “do not sum to 100%.”
So the unit of probability here is the slot, not the pack:
- Per pack —
1 − (1 − p_slot)² - Across n packs —
1 − (1 − p_slot)^(2n) - Expected cards —
p_slot × 2n, a count of cards, not of packs - Both slots the same —
p_slot², which is how the double-Legend pack falls out of the model at 6.3% of packs on the retail basis
Where Radiance differs from our Vendetta tool. The Vendetta pull-rate page published per-pack percentages, so that calculator has to invert them first with p_slot = 1 − √(1 − p_pack). Radiance did not need that step for most rows, because what was actually counted on camera was cards per display — 8 base Epics, 3 Showcase Epics, 1 alt-art Rune, ~8 Legends. A card count maps onto the slot model directly as cards ÷ 48 slots, with no inversion and no rounding loss. The per-pack percentage becomes the derived figure instead of the input, which is the more reliable direction to work in.
The model still has to close, and it does. Because the per-slot rarities must sum to 100%, the regular-Rare slot is computed as the residual — whatever the other rarities leave over. It lands at ~25.6 regular Rares per display on the retail basis and ~27.3 on the Summit basis, both inside the pull-rate page’s independent “~25–30 per display” range. Nothing forced that to happen. A second, softer check: with hits filling 22% of slots, the model says 61% of packs should be floor-only against the published 65%.
The Slot Budget: Why 8 Legends Is Not Good News
This is the part of the Radiance data that everyone is reading wrong, and it falls straight out of the slot model.
Radiance’s tallied display produced about 8 Legends, against the 12 per display that Vendetta measured and that all six boxes of the sealed Unleashed case produced. That looks like Riot finally cutting the Legend bloat players have complained about for two sets. It is being shared that way.
But a display has a fixed budget of 48 rare+ slots. Every slot that comes out an Epic is a slot that did not come out a Legend. The same display that produced 8 Legends also produced 8 base Epics against Vendetta’s 6–7 — and 3 Showcase Epics and an alt-art Rune on top. Add up the extra hits and they account for almost exactly the missing Legends. The two observations are one finding seen from two sides, not two independent pieces of good news:
- Summit basis — Legends 17% per slot (8 per display), Epics 17% per slot (8 per display)
- Retail basis — Legends 25% per slot (12 per display), Epics 15% per slot (7 per display)
Toggle the basis in the calculator and watch those two rows move in opposite directions. That anti-correlation is not a modelling artefact — it is the slot budget, and it is why pulling Epics back to the two-set figure automatically pushes Legends back up to 12.
What would actually confirm a Legend-density change: a retail display showing a normal Epic count (6–7) alongside a low Legend count (8–9). That would mean the freed slots went somewhere other than Epics — into regular Rares, or into Showcase treatments — which is a real design change rather than one hot box. Until someone counts that box, the retail basis is the honest default, and this calculator ships with it selected.
The Per-Slot Rates Behind the Tool
Every row below is the retail-adjusted basis the calculator defaults to. “Derived from” shows the working, so you can check any figure against the pull-rate page yourself.
| Rarity | Per slot | Per pack (≥1) | Per display | Derived from |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legend (Rare) | 25% | 44% | 12 | creator: ~8 Legends counted in the tallied display ÷ 48 slots = 16.7% per slot; retail: Unleashed's 12 per box ÷ 48 = 25.0% per slot |
| Regular Rare (units, spells, gear, battlefields) | 53% | 78% | 25.6 | residual — 1 − (every other rarity), then checked against the published ~25–30 per display |
| Epic (signature spells, epic units) | 15% | 27% | 7 | creator: 8 base Epics counted in the tallied display ÷ 48 slots = 16.7% per slot (≈31% of packs); retail: Vendetta+Unleashed's 27% per pack → 1 − √(1 − 0.27) = 14.6% per slot ≈ 7 per display |
| Showcase / alt-art Epic | 4.6% | 9.0% | 2.2 | creator: exactly 3 in BOTH displays ÷ 48 slots = 6.25% per slot (≈12% of packs); retail: trimmed to Vendetta's measured 9% per pack = 4.6% per slot ≈ 2.2 per display |
| Alt-art Rune (music-themed) | 1.3% | 2.5% | 0.6 | creator: exactly 1 in BOTH displays ÷ 48 slots = 2.08% per slot (≈4% of packs); retail: trimmed to 0.6 per display, keeping combined alt-art (Showcase + Rune) near Vendetta's ~2.2–2.8 per box |
| Overnumbered | 0.85% | 1.7% | 0.4 | creator: 1 in 54 packs → 0.93% per slot (≈0.44/display); retail: Unleashed's ~1.7% per pack → 0.86% per slot (≈0.41/display) |
| Artist-signed Overnumbered ✦ | 0.10% – 0.42% | 0.21% – 0.83% | 0.05 – 0.2 | bounded — zero observed in 54 packs; carried over from the Vendetta "<1% of packs, <0.2 per box" ceiling |
| Ultimate Rare — Packed Amphitheater | 0.013% | 0.025% | 0.01 | Riot-stated 0.025% of packs → 1 − √(1 − 0.00025) = 0.0125% per slot → 48 × 0.000125 = 0.006 per display (≈1 per 167 displays, ≈1 per 28 cases) |
The regular-Rare row carries no derivation of its own by design — it is the residual that forces the per-slot distribution to close at exactly 100%, and the fact that it lands inside an independently published per-display range is the model’s main self-check.
Packed Amphitheater: The 1-in-4,000 Row
Packed Amphitheater is Riftbound’s second-ever Ultimate rarity card, after Baron Nashor in Unleashed, and it is the only row in this tool that is not derived from our sample. Riot has published the figure itself: the Ultimate appears in roughly 0.025% of booster packs across the print run. Because it is Riot’s number rather than an observation of ours, promotional boxes cannot inflate it — which is why the row reads identically on both rate bases.
Composed across the slot model, 0.025% per pack means:
- 0.013% per rare+ slot — the actual unit the model works in
- 0.60% per 24-pack display, or about 0.01 copies expected — one per 167 displays
- 3.5% per sealed 6-box case — one per 28 cases
- ~116 displays for a coin flip — the point at which you are more likely than not to have seen one
- ~$19,999 expected spend per copy at $120 MSRP per display — and that is the expectation, not a cap. Half of all attempts cost more than that
Our 54-pack sample produced none, which the model says was overwhelmingly likely: at 0.013% per slot, 54 packs carries only a 1.3% chance of seeing one. Both displays did pull the ordinary non-Ultimate print of the Packed Amphitheater battlefield — that card is a routine Rare and sits in the residual row above. Pulling the card is unremarkable; pulling the Ultimate treatment of it is the 1-in-4,000 event.
The quietly interesting part is that the effect is playable — a battlefield giving Champion units +1 might, in a set pushing Champion-heavy decks. Unlike Baron Nashor it has a reason to be in a deck, which should support its floor on the secondary market.
Tier Odds vs Named-Card Odds
Every number in this calculator is a tier rate — the chance of pulling any card at that rarity. The card you actually want is a fraction of it, and the gap is bigger than most people assume.
The Overnumbered case is the one worth doing properly. The tier sits at 0.85% per slot, which is 0.4 per display, or a 34% chance that a given display contains one at all. Both displays in our sample produced zero across 48 packs — at that rate, the normal outcome, not bad luck. Now narrow it to one card: the Overnumbered pool is all nine Legends plus key Epics such as Orianna, Lady of Clockwork, so a named Overnumbered is roughly a tenth as likely. That is on the order of one per 20–30 displays, or $2,400–$3,600 of sealed product at MSRP, against an expected single price well under $120. The artist-signed version is rarer again, and the calculator deliberately shows that row as a bound between 0.10% and 0.42% per slot rather than a rate, because none has ever been measured for any Riftbound set.
The same discount applies to the Epic tier, and it is why the tool is most useful as an argument against opening. 100% of displays contain an Epic, but the tier spans dozens of cards — Chronobreak, The Ball, Last Caress, K'Sante Dauntless, Orianna Lady of Clockwork and the rest. If you want one specific signature spell for the one Legend you actually play, buy the single. And note that Radiance’s strongest competitive cards — The Good Stuff, Portable Portal, Trifarian Captain — are Commons and Uncommons that never appear in this table at all. A full playset of them costs less than a single pack of chasing.
The Summit-Box Adjustment
Everything in the Radiance sample came from promotional product Riot supplied at the Radiance Summit, opened the night the embargo lifted on October 12 — eleven days before anyone could buy the set. That matters, and the calculator handles it with the basis toggle rather than by burying a caveat.
The retail basis is the default. It keeps what larger samples corroborate and pulls back what they do not:
- Epic — pulled from the observed 8 per display back to 7, the figure Vendetta (90 packs) and Unleashed (168 packs plus a sealed case) independently measured at ~27% per pack
- Legend — pushed from the observed 8 back up to 12, the Unleashed figure, for the slot-budget reason above
- Showcase and alt-art Rune — trimmed, but only part of the way. Radiance ships 66 Showcase cards of 180 and is the first set with newly commissioned Showcase art, so some of the lift over Vendetta is probably a genuine design change rather than a hot box
- Overnumbered — set to Unleashed’s ~1.7% per pack. The two bases land within a whisker of each other here (0.4 vs 0.4 per display), which is the useful part — this is the rate we are most confident about
- Ultimate — unchanged. Riot’s own stated figure, identical on both bases
The Summit basis shows the 54-pack sample exactly as published, with 50% of packs delivering a hit above the floor against 35% on retail. Use it to see what the openings actually looked like. Do not use it to decide whether to buy a display.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Riftbound Radiance pull rate calculator work?
Enter a pack count — or tap a sealed preset such as a 6-pack Radiance Vault, a 24-pack booster display, or a 6-box case — and pick the rarity you are chasing. The detail that matters is that a Radiance pack carries three foils: one foil Common or Uncommon plus two independent Rare-or-above slots, so a 24-pack display opens 48 rare+ slots, not 24. The calculator works in per-slot probabilities and composes them upward with 1 − (1 − p_slot)^(2n). That is also why the published per-pack percentages do not add up to 100% — one pack can hold a Legend and an Epic at once.
What is the Epic pull rate in Riftbound Radiance?
Our 54-pack sample counted 8 base Epics in the display tallied card by card — 17% per slot, about 31% of packs. That runs ahead of the 6–7 per box Vendetta and Unleashed both measured, so the default retail basis holds the two-set figure of 15% per slot, or roughly 7 Epics per display. Either way at least one Epic per display is effectively certain at 100%, and about 3 packs gives you a coin flip.
What are the Packed Amphitheater odds in Riftbound Radiance?
Riot’s stated 0.025% of packs works out to 0.013% per rare+ slot: 0.60% per 24-pack display, 3.5% across a sealed 6-box case, and roughly 116 displays for a coin flip. Expected spend per copy at MSRP: about $19,999. This row is Riot’s own figure, not ours, which is why it is identical on both rate bases. See the Packed Amphitheater section for the full breakdown.
Why does Radiance show only 8 Legends per box instead of 12?
Because a pack has a fixed number of rare+ slots, the Legend count and the Epic count are not independent. The tallied display produced 8 base Epics against Vendetta’s 6–7, and those extra Epics occupy slots the Legends would otherwise have filled. So “Radiance cut Legend density” and “Radiance runs hot on Epics” are the same finding viewed from two directions. The calculator keeps Legends at the Unleashed 12 per display on the retail basis and shows the observed 8 on the Summit basis. Full reasoning in The Slot Budget.
What are the odds of a specific Overnumbered card in Radiance?
The tier is 0.85% per slot — 0.4 per display, or one per 2–3 displays, and both of our displays produced zero across 48 packs. But that is any Overnumbered. The pool spans all nine Legends plus key Epics, so a specific named one is roughly a tenth as likely: on the order of one per 20–30 displays, which is $2,400–$3,600 of sealed product at MSRP against a single price well under $120. Buy the single.
How many Showcase and alt-art Rune cards will I get from a Radiance display?
Both displays in our sample landed exactly three Showcase Epics and one alt-art Rune — four premium Showcase cards per display, and the most consistent figure in the dataset. The retail basis trims those to 2.2 and 0.6 per display respectively, because Vendetta measured ~9% per pack for the combined alt-art tier — but only part of the way, since Radiance genuinely ships 66 Showcase cards of 180. Note the alt-art Runes come from packs only; the Vault’s 36 Runes are the basic set.
Are the Radiance per-pack percentages supposed to add up to 100%?
No — and a Radiance calculator where they do is modelling the pack wrongly. Because there are two independent Rare-or-above slots, the published figures are “share of packs containing at least one of this rarity”, and one pack can land in several buckets at once. What sums to 100% is the per-slot distribution this tool is built on: Legend 25%, regular Rare the residual 53%, Epic 15%, Showcase 4.6%, alt-art Rune 1.3%, Overnumbered 0.85%, and the lottery tiers under half a percent between them.
Should I use this calculator to decide whether to open a display?
Use it to see what you are actually buying, not to find a reason to buy. On the retail basis 65% of packs come out floor-only, a named Overnumbered runs 20–30 displays, and the Ultimate is a $19,999 expected spend. The pull-rate page has the full open-versus-buy breakdown, and the short version is: open for the Showcases, which are genuinely good this set and arrive four per display, and buy singles for anything specific.
Disclaimer: Rates come from 54 Riftbound Radiance packs — two 24-pack booster displays plus one 6-pack Vault Bundle — promotional Radiance Summit product, opened at the October 12 embargo lift, 11 days before retail launch — cross-checked against the 90-pack Vendetta and 168-pack Unleashed samples, the latter including a full sealed 6-box case. The Epic and Legend figures rest on a single display that was tallied card by card. The model treats each of the two rare+ slots in a pack as an independent draw at the per-slot rate; real collation clusters hits, so a live display or case can over- or under-shoot. Riot Games does not publish official pull rates beyond the Ultimate figure quoted above. Not affiliated with Riot Games. This is not financial advice.