Marvel Hero Rush Pack Calculator
Marvel Hero Rush BP01 has the cleanest pack structure of any set we model. Every pack contains exactly one guaranteed character hit, and that single slot resolves to exactly one of SR, GR, UR, MR or SEC. So the question is never “will I get a hit?” — you always do — it is which tier the slot lands on, and how many packs it takes to reach the one you want.
Set your pack count below (or tap the confirmed 20-pack booster box), pick a tier, and switch between any card in the tier and one specific card — BP01 publishes 40 MR and 8 SEC cards, so named-card odds are real arithmetic here rather than a guess. All rates come from the ~60-pack release-day sample behind our Marvel Hero Rush pull-rate page.
Every Marvel Hero Rush pack gives you exactly one character hit, so the question is never “will I get a hit?” — it is which tier that single slot lands on. Pick a tier and the big number is your chance of at least one across your pack count.
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of ≥1 | Expected | Base odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Rare (SR)Common | 37% | >99.9% | 7.4 | 1 in 2.7 |
| GR (Gold/Glitter Rare)Common | 35% | >99.9% | 7 | 1 in 2.9 |
| Ultra Rare (UR)Chase | 17% | 98% | 3.4 | 1 in 5.9 |
| MR (marquee character rare)Chase | 10% | 88% | 2 | 1 in 10 |
| Secret Rare (SEC / signature)LotteryEstimate | 1.0% | 18% | 0.2 | 1 in 100 |
Every BP01 pack carries one Rush Point card alongside its character hit — tied to the game’s resource mechanic and collectible in its own right. The release-day sample confirmed the one-per-pack cadence (11 Rush Points from 11 logged packs) and showed commons, R, GR and at least one MR-level Rush Point, but the sample is far too small to fix a rate for any rung. So this track reports counts only: no Rush Point percentages appear anywhere in the calculator above, and the Rush Point slot has no effect on your character-hit odds.
Switch the mode above to see named-card odds. The tier rate is the chance of hitting *any* card in that tier — and BP01 tiers are wide: 40 different MR cards and 8 different SEC cards. Pulling an MR is near-certain over a box; pulling the one MR character you actually want is roughly 1 in 400 packs. Specific-card odds assume the cards inside a tier are evenly weighted, which Card Fun has not confirmed.
Rates come from roughly 60 release-day packs (about three 20-pack boxes, one logged card-by-card across 11 packs) — a small, high-variance sample for a brand-new game. The SR, GR, UR and MR shares are observed; the SEC row is an ESTIMATED CEILING, not a measurement, because no Secret Rare appeared in the sample. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the observed hit-slot rate; real collation can cluster hits. The Rush Point insert track is reported separately and carries no rates at all. Not affiliated with Card Fun or Marvel.
Card Fun’s Rarity Ladder, Explained
Marvel Hero Rush is a Card Fun product, not a Pokémon or Magic one, and its rarity codes are unfamiliar to most collectors — there is no “Illustration Rare” or “Secret” equivalent you can map one-to-one. Here is the ladder BP01 actually uses, bottom to top:
- C (Common) and R (Rare) — the non-foil base cards that fill out the pack. These are not the hit slot and are not modelled above.
- SR (Super Rare) — the entry foil/hologram hit. The most common outcome of the hit slot, at ~37%.
- GR — one rung above SR, at ~35%. Card Fun has not published an English expansion of the “GR” code; we place it by observed value order.
- UR (Ultra Rare) — the upper-mid hit, ~17%. Noticeably scarcer than SR/GR but still a near-certainty across a box.
- MR — the marquee character-rare tier and the usual box highlight, ~10%. 40 MR cards in the set.
- SEC (Secret Rare) — the top of the ladder, where the signature / autograph cards live, headlined by the signature Iron Man. 8 SEC cards in the set, and zero observed in our sample.
Two things sit alongside this ladder rather than inside it. The Rush Point parallel is a second guaranteed insert with its own rarity rungs — covered in its own section below, and deliberately excluded from the odds math. And PR / ER / TR special inserts exist but were not confirmed in the release-day data, so they appear nowhere in the calculator.
The Per-Pack Hit-Slot Rates Behind the Calculator
A BP01 booster box is a confirmed 20 packs. Because the hit slot is a single card, these shares are mutually exclusive within a pack and sum to the whole slot — which is what makes the “≥1 at this tier or better” line in the calculator exact rather than an approximation. These are the same aggregates published on the pull-rate page:
| Rarity | Per Pack | Base Odds | Per 20-Pack Box | Chance of ≥1 per Box |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Rare (SR) | 37% | ~1 in 3 | ~7.4 | >99.9% |
| GR (Gold/Glitter Rare) | 35% | ~1 in 3 | ~7.0 | >99.9% |
| Ultra Rare (UR) | 17% | ~1 in 6 | ~3.4 | 98% |
| MR (marquee character rare) | 10% | ~1 in 10 | ~2.0 | 88% |
| Secret Rare (SEC / signature) (estimate) | 1.0%* | ~1 in 100 | ~0.2 | 18%* |
| Any character hit | 100% | every pack | 20 | 100% |
*The SEC row is an estimated ceiling, not a measurement. No Secret Rare was pulled in ~60 packs; the 1% shown is the residual of the hit slot once SR, GR, UR and MR are accounted for (37 + 35 + 17 + 10 = 99%). Read it as “no more common than this” — see the section below.
The useful cumulative reads, straight off those shares: a hit at UR or better is 28% of packs, which over a full box is 99.9% — effectively a lock. A hit at MR or better is 11% of packs, or about 90% across a box. Most packs, though, land in the bottom two tiers: SR and GR together account for roughly 72% of the hit slot.
How the Odds Are Calculated
The model is deliberately simple, and BP01’s structure makes it unusually clean. Each pack is treated as one independent draw from the hit-slot distribution:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one pack in your batch lands on that tier, computed as
1 − (1 − rate)^packs. This is the number most people mean by “my odds.” - Expected — the average number you’d pull across your packs, simply
rate × packs. Over a box it exceeds 1 for SR, GR, UR and MR. - Base odds — the flat per-pack rate expressed as “1 in N,” so the single-pack chance is visible at a glance.
- 50/50 packs — how many packs you need for a coin-flip shot at one,
ln(0.5) / ln(1 − rate). The fastest way to see whether a chase is sane. - Tier or better — because the hit slot is one card, the tiers are mutually exclusive, so “MR or better” is the plain sum of the MR and SEC shares. No inclusion–exclusion, no approximation. (This shortcut is only valid for a single-slot set like BP01 — it would be wrong on a Pokémon set with several independent hit slots.)
Two honest caveats. First, the rates come from a ~60-pack release-day sample, so they are directional — a brand-new game with three boxes of data behind it, not a settled rate card. Second, the model assumes packs are independent draws at the average rate; real collation can cluster hits within a box, so a live opening can over- or under-shoot the figures here.
The Secret Rare Problem (0 in ~60 Packs)
This deserves its own section, because it is the one number on this page that is not a measurement.
No Secret Rare appeared in our sample. Zero, across roughly 60 release-day packs. That means there is no observed SEC frequency to report — only an upper bound. On this evidence, SEC is rarer than 1 in 60 packs, and it could be considerably rarer than that.
So where does the calculator’s 1% come from? It is the residual of the hit slot: the four observed tiers account for about 99% of hits (37 + 35 + 17 + 10), leaving roughly 1% unassigned, and SEC is the tier that lives there. We use it because a single-slot distribution has to sum to 1 and the tool needs some figure to compute against — but it is a modelling ceiling, not a rate, and the interface badges it as an estimate everywhere it appears. Read every SEC output as “no better than this.”
At that ceiling, a single 20-pack box is about an 18% shot at any SEC, and a coin flip would take around 69 packs (~3.5 boxes). Those are the most optimistic numbers consistent with our data. We have deliberately not invented a tighter figure, and we will replace the estimate with a real rate the moment a large enough sample exists.
Odds of a Specific Named Card
BP01 is one of the few sets where this is answerable, because Card Fun publishes the tier sizes: 40 MR cards and 8 SEC cards. Flip the calculator to “one specific card” and it divides the tier rate by the tier size — assuming the cards inside a tier are evenly weighted, which Card Fun has not confirmed.
The gap between tier odds and named-card odds is the whole ballgame:
| Target | Per Pack | Chance per 20-Pack Box | Packs for a 50/50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any MR | 10% | 88% | ~7 packs |
| One specific MR (1 of 40) | 0.25% (~1 in 400) | 4.9% | ~277 packs (~14 boxes) |
| Any SEC (estimate) | 1%* | 18%* | ~69 packs (~3.5 boxes)* |
| Signature Iron Man (1 of 8 SEC) (estimate) | 0.125%* (~1 in 800) | 2.5%* | ~554 packs (~28 boxes)* |
*Derived from the estimated SEC ceiling, not from observed pulls — the real figures may be meaningfully worse. Specific-card rows additionally assume even weighting within a tier.
The practical takeaway: pulling an MR is near-certain over a box; pulling the MR you want is roughly 1 in 400 packs. And the signature Iron Man — the card most openers are actually hunting — is a ~28-box proposition at best. Use the tier odds to decide whether to open at all; buy the single when you want one particular card.
Rush Points: The Separate Track
Every BP01 pack contains a second guaranteed insert beyond the character hit: a Rush Point card, tied to the game’s resource mechanic and collectible as a parallel line in its own right. The release-day sample confirmed the cadence precisely — 11 Rush Points from 11 logged packs — so a 20-pack box yields about 20 character hits and 20 Rush Points.
Rush Points have their own ascending ladder. The sample showed common, R and GR Rush Points, plus at least one MR-level Rush Point. What it did not show is how often each rung appears — and we are not going to guess. So the calculator handles Rush Points as a clearly separated track: it reports them as counts only, labels every rung “rate not established,” and excludes them from every probability calculation on the page.
Why this matters for reading the odds: a Rush Point never competes with your character hit. The two slots are independent, so an MR-level Rush Point does not make an MR character hit less likely in that pack, and the ~10% MR figure above refers to the character slot only. If you see a “hit rate” for Marvel Hero Rush that folds the two inserts together, it is double-counting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are my odds of pulling an MR?
About 10% per pack (~1 in 10) — so roughly 88% over one 20-pack box, with about 2 expected, and only about 7 packs for a coin-flip shot. But with 40 MR cards in the set, a specific MR is ~1 in 400 packs — about 4.9% per box. Switch the calculator to “one specific card” to see it live.
What is the chance of pulling a Secret Rare?
Unmeasured — zero SEC in ~60 packs. The calculator uses a 1% ceiling derived from the hit slot’s residual, flagged as an estimate, which works out to roughly 18% per box. The true rate is somewhere below that. Treat any SEC as a lucky bonus, never a plan.
How many packs to pull the signature Iron Man?
At the estimated ceiling, a specific SEC is ~1 in 800 packs — about 554 packs (~28 boxes) for a coin flip, and plausibly worse. Buy the single once the market forms.
What are the odds across one booster box?
Twenty packs means 20 guaranteed character hits: expect ~7 SR, ~7 GR, ~3 UR and ~2 MR. A UR-or-better hit is 99.9%, and MR-or-better about 90%. SEC is the open question.
Do Rush Points count toward these odds?
No. Rush Points are a second, independent guaranteed insert with no established rates, reported as counts only and excluded from all math here. You get one character hit and one Rush Point per pack.
Disclaimer: Odds are computed from a small release-day sample of roughly 60 Marvel Hero Rush BP01 packs (about three 20-pack boxes, one logged card-by-card) and will change as more data comes in. The SR, GR, UR and MR shares are observed; the SEC rate is an estimated ceiling, not a measurement, and all SEC-derived figures inherit that uncertainty. Specific-card odds assume even weighting within a tier, which Card Fun has not confirmed. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the average per-pack rate; real openings can over- or under-shoot. Card Fun does not publish official pull rates. Not affiliated with Card Fun or Marvel. This is not financial advice.